本文關(guān)鍵詞：高速公路交通安全風險評價與敏感性分析　出處：《長安大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版)》2014年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 交通工程 交通安全 ATR法 正交試驗法 風險評價 敏感性分析 高速公路

【摘要】：為預(yù)防并減少交通事故發(fā)生,將"事后懲治"轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)?事前預(yù)防",構(gòu)建了包括轉(zhuǎn)向性能、交通條件等16個影響因素的高速公路交通安全風險評價指標體系,提出了AHP-TOPSIS-RSR法的高速公路交通安全風險評價方法,該方法基于系統(tǒng)分析及嫁接的思想,利用AHP法建立評價矩陣,通過引入熵權(quán)的TOPSIS法計算出交通安全風險綜合評價指標值與理想值相對接近度值,結(jié)合RSR法,根據(jù)風險等級的分檔標準,對相對接近度值進行分檔�；谡辉囼灧ㄌ岢龈咚俟方煌ò踩舾行苑治瞿Ｐ�,并計算各因素敏感度值,根據(jù)其排序確定主要敏感風險指標,并以福建永武(永安-武平)高速公路為例對該方法進行驗證。研究結(jié)果表明:永武高速公路交通安全風險等級為Ⅰ級-巨警,風險等級高;疲勞/無證駕駛、車輛超速、線形條件、交通條件、不良天氣、救援機制的風險指標敏感度分別達到:0.472 1、0.508 8、0.759 8、0.814 2、0.529 6、0.468 5,屬于安全敏感風險指標,基本反映了永武高速公路的交通安全實際狀況。
[Abstract]:In order to prevent and reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents, the "punishment after the event" was transformed into "prevention beforehand", and the evaluation index system of highway traffic safety risk including steering performance, traffic conditions and other 16 influencing factors was constructed. This paper presents an evaluation method of expressway traffic safety risk based on AHP-TOPSIS-RSR method. Based on the idea of systematic analysis and grafting, the evaluation matrix is established by using AHP method. Through the introduction of entropy weight TOPSIS method to calculate the traffic safety risk comprehensive evaluation index value and ideal value relative proximity value, combined with the RSR method, according to the risk classification standard. Based on orthogonal test, the sensitivity analysis model of expressway traffic safety is put forward, and the sensitivity value of each factor is calculated, and the main sensitive risk index is determined according to its ranking. Taking Yongwu (Yongan-Wuping) expressway in Fujian as an example, this method is verified. The results show that the traffic safety risk level of Yongwu Expressway is Grade 鈪，

本文編號：1423640