本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于乘客選擇習(xí)慣變化的機(jī)場長途巴士時刻表動態(tài)優(yōu)化研究　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 機(jī)場長途巴士 培育期 市場份額 時刻表 行為模擬 動態(tài)優(yōu)化

【摘要】：隨著民航業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,中國機(jī)場數(shù)量不斷增加,逐漸出現(xiàn)多個機(jī)場服務(wù)同一區(qū)域的現(xiàn)象(多機(jī)場區(qū)域)。在多機(jī)場區(qū)域中,機(jī)場間競爭日趨激烈,為吸引更多腹地客源,一些機(jī)場推出新型的集疏運服務(wù)“機(jī)場長途巴士”來增強自身的競爭力。對提供新服務(wù)的機(jī)場來說,其市場份額會在市場平衡被打破后逐漸上升,并在下一個市場平衡狀態(tài)形成時回歸平穩(wěn),整個上升過程通常叫做市場培育期。由于培育期內(nèi)“機(jī)場長途巴士”時刻表對加快和增大市場份額的增長非常關(guān)鍵,因此本文在模擬乘客長期需求演變的基礎(chǔ)上,利用時刻表、機(jī)票價格與市場份額間的互動關(guān)系,以最大化培育期內(nèi)市場份額增幅與增速、最小化運營成本為目標(biāo)動態(tài)優(yōu)化培育期內(nèi)的“機(jī)場長途巴士”單條線路及整個線網(wǎng)的時刻表。首先,在考慮時刻表與機(jī)場市場份額之間互動關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建習(xí)慣影響下的機(jī)場選擇決策模型與習(xí)慣演變模型,實現(xiàn)對“機(jī)場長途巴士”開通后乘客機(jī)場選擇行為和選擇習(xí)慣同步轉(zhuǎn)變過程的模擬,并得到培育期內(nèi)機(jī)場市場份額隨時間逐漸演變的過程。其次,基于培育期內(nèi)乘客需求的模擬數(shù)據(jù),針對機(jī)場與單個城市間的“機(jī)場長途巴士”服務(wù),以培育期最短、市場份額增幅最大和運營成本最低為多重目標(biāo),建立培育期內(nèi)時刻表的動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型,并設(shè)計針對多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化問題的啟發(fā)式算法。接下來,將研究范圍由一條線路擴(kuò)展到整個線網(wǎng),基于時刻表、機(jī)票價格和市場份額之間的復(fù)雜互動關(guān)系,在單條線路時刻表動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型的基礎(chǔ)上加入航空公司機(jī)票定價模型,建立培育期內(nèi)“機(jī)場長途巴士”線網(wǎng)的時刻表動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型,同時設(shè)計求解算法。研究結(jié)果表明乘客選擇習(xí)慣的轉(zhuǎn)變是引起機(jī)場市場份額在培育期內(nèi)逐漸變化的潛在原因；在培育期內(nèi)合理設(shè)計新服務(wù)的運營方案有助于快速培養(yǎng)乘客的習(xí)慣,并最大化新服務(wù)的實施效果；同時,考慮新服務(wù)和其他影響習(xí)慣轉(zhuǎn)變的因素之間可能存在的聯(lián)動關(guān)系,能夠減弱外部環(huán)境變化對新服務(wù)實施效果產(chǎn)生的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, the number of airports in China is increasing, and there are many airport services in the same area (multi airport area). In the airport area, airport competition, in order to attract more tourists to launch some airport hinterland, transportation service "new airport bus" to enhance their competitiveness. For the airports that provide new services, their market share will gradually increase after the market equilibrium is broken, and will return smoothly when the next market equilibrium state is formed. The whole rise process is usually called the market incubation period. The cultivation period "airport bus timetable" to accelerate and increase the market share growth is very important, so this paper based long term evolution of demand in the simulation of passengers, the schedule, ticket price and market share of the interactive relationship between the cultivation period, to maximize market share growth and growth, minimize operating costs objective dynamic optimization cultivation period within the "airport bus" single line and the line network schedule. First of all, considering the relation of the interaction between the schedule and the airport market share, build habits under the influence of airport choice decision-making model and habit evolution model, simulation of the airport bus after the opening of passenger choice behavior and habit synchronous transition process, and get the process of cultivating market share gradually evolved within the period of the airport with time. Secondly, the simulation data based on the needs of the passengers in the incubation period, according to the airport with a single city between the airport bus service, with the shortest incubation period, the largest market share increase and the lowest operation cost for multiple objectives, establish dynamic optimization model within the period of time table, and for the design of heuristic algorithm for multiobjective optimization problems the. Next, the scope of the study will be a line by line extended to the entire network, complex interactive relationship between the schedule, ticket price and market share between the ticket pricing model based on joining the airline based on single line schedule dynamic optimization model, set up a training period "coach" network schedule optimization at the same time model, algorithm design. The results show that the choice of passenger habits change is a potential cause of the airport market share gradually changed during the cultivation period; the operation scheme of rational design of new services in the cultivation period contribute to the fast passenger train habits, and implement the maximum effectiveness of the new service; at the same time, the linkage relationship may exist between the factors change new service and other effects of habits, changes in the external environment can weaken the effect of the implementation of the new service.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：V354;U492.4

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

1 劉海澄;;英漢對比賞析:改變老習(xí)慣選譯——埃德蒙頓機(jī)場實行市場計劃與其競爭對手爭奪旅客及航空公司[J];海外英語;2010年08期

2 徐紅利;周晶;徐薇;;基于累積前景理論的隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶均衡模型[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報;2011年07期

3 姜旭平;王鑫;;影響搜索引擎營銷效果的關(guān)鍵因素分析[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報;2011年09期

4 秦進(jìn),史峰;公交化城際列車時刻表優(yōu)化[J];交通運輸工程學(xué)報;2005年02期

5 張曉玲;吳春春;;基于灰色綜合評價法的國內(nèi)主要機(jī)場競爭力評價[J];物流工程與管理;2012年11期

6 孫芙靈;公交調(diào)度中發(fā)車間隔的確定方法的探討[J];西安公路交通大學(xué)學(xué)報;1997年S1期

7 劉志剛;申金升;;區(qū)域公交時刻表及車輛調(diào)度雙層規(guī)劃模型[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐;2007年11期

8 陳潔;楊升榮;王方華;;在線消費者品牌選擇習(xí)慣持續(xù)性效應(yīng)分離[J];系統(tǒng)管理學(xué)報;2010年03期

9 李拂簾;;探索機(jī)場巴士運營新模式——西安咸陽國際機(jī)場汽車運輸有限責(zé)任公司發(fā)展紀(jì)略[J];運輸經(jīng)理世界;2009年11期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉環(huán)宇;基于可靠性的公交時刻表優(yōu)化設(shè)計研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號：1343752