本文選題：電離層 + 總電子含量��； 參考：《東華理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)》2016年S1期

【摘要】：針對(duì)電離層總電子含量(total electron content,TEC)序列呈現(xiàn)周期性特征,采用季節(jié)時(shí)間序列(seasonal ARIMA,SARIMA)模型對(duì)TEC序列進(jìn)行預(yù)報(bào)分析。利用JSCORS 2010年的GPS雙頻觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算的VTEC序列為樣本數(shù)據(jù)建立模型,實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明:VTEC序列建立合適的季節(jié)ARIMA模型,并運(yùn)用該模型進(jìn)行短期預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)測(cè)值變化趨勢(shì)一致,短期預(yù)報(bào)的平均相對(duì)精度可達(dá)89%,但預(yù)報(bào)精度會(huì)隨預(yù)報(bào)長(zhǎng)度的增加而減小。
[Abstract]:In view of the periodicity of total electron contentTECs in ionosphere, seasonal time series (seasonal Arima) model is used to predict and analyze TEC sequences. The model is established by using the VTEC series calculated from the GPS dual-frequency observation data of JSCORS 2010 as the sample data. The experimental results show that the appropriate seasonal ARIMA model is established by using this model, and the short-term prediction is carried out by using the model, and the predicted values are consistent with the observed values. The average relative accuracy of short term prediction can reach 89%, but the prediction accuracy will decrease with the increase of prediction length.
【作者單位】： 山東電力工程咨詢(xún)?cè)河邢薰?江西省水利規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)研究院;江西省水工結(jié)構(gòu)工程技術(shù)中心;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P228.4;P352
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本文編號(hào)：1920781