【摘要】：績效分析是電網(wǎng)精益化運營的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),通過選用合適的數(shù)據(jù)挖掘方法,定量分析電網(wǎng)績效水平,科學(xué)評估電網(wǎng)與負(fù)荷需求的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系,可以評估電網(wǎng)的規(guī)劃、投資、改造、運行等業(yè)務(wù)環(huán)節(jié),發(fā)現(xiàn)電網(wǎng)發(fā)展的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)以及控制成本、有效利用資金、提升電網(wǎng)性能的最佳途徑,能夠為電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃與建設(shè)提供有力的理論支撐,進而實現(xiàn)電網(wǎng)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的良性互動。 本文在分析電力企業(yè)績效研究現(xiàn)狀,并綜合考慮電網(wǎng)運營特點、績效分析要求、實際數(shù)據(jù)等問題的基礎(chǔ)上,并提出了一種基于DEA的電網(wǎng)績效分析方法。該方法首先以R聚類技術(shù)進行指標(biāo)精選,以Q聚類技術(shù)對不同電網(wǎng)進行分類,并對所選取指標(biāo)和分類的有效性進行統(tǒng)計檢驗；然后對同類電網(wǎng)采用DEA績效分析,并利用松弛變量對非DEA有效的電網(wǎng)進行投影分析,從而得到提升電網(wǎng)績效的最佳路徑,是一種精細(xì)化績效分析方法。最后以中電聯(lián)提供的“十一五”及2011年統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進行省級電網(wǎng)績效實證分析,驗證了上述方法的有效性和實用性。 電網(wǎng)與社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展聯(lián)系緊密,電網(wǎng)發(fā)展速度不應(yīng)是一成不變的,定量分析電網(wǎng)與負(fù)荷需求的協(xié)調(diào)性是電網(wǎng)績效分析的一個方面,并可為電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃提供依據(jù)。本文依托國家電網(wǎng)‘十一五”電網(wǎng)統(tǒng)計調(diào)查項目,提出一種以Granger因果檢驗分析電網(wǎng)與負(fù)荷需求協(xié)調(diào)性的系統(tǒng)方法,研究影響電網(wǎng)發(fā)展與負(fù)荷需求間的相互影響關(guān)系。該方法通過對不滿足Granger因果分析平穩(wěn)性檢驗的原始數(shù)據(jù)進行差分處理,使得數(shù)據(jù)序列滿足平穩(wěn)性要求。并以1993-2011年電網(wǎng)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)驗證了所提出方法的有效性和實用性。 統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量對電網(wǎng)績效分析效果的影響,電力統(tǒng)計人員素質(zhì)又直接影響統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量。本文依托電力統(tǒng)計人員素質(zhì)調(diào)查分析,根據(jù)素質(zhì)評價研究基本理論和電力統(tǒng)計人員知識結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,構(gòu)建了電力行業(yè)統(tǒng)計人員素質(zhì)的評價體系,探索了一種基于德爾菲法改進的層次分析方法,逐層計算素質(zhì)指標(biāo)權(quán)重,并綜合計算統(tǒng)計人員素質(zhì)綜合評價得分,并運用2013年浙江省電力統(tǒng)計人員選調(diào)培訓(xùn)測試成績對電力統(tǒng)計人員素質(zhì)進行實證分析。
[Abstract]:Performance analysis is the key link of lean operation of power grid. By selecting appropriate data mining method, quantitatively analyzing the performance level of power grid, scientifically evaluating the coordinated relationship between power grid and load demand, we can evaluate the planning, investment, transformation, operation and other business links of power grid, find the weak links of power grid development and the best way to control the cost, make effective use of funds and improve the performance of power grid. It can provide powerful theoretical support for power grid planning and construction, and then realize the benign interaction between power grid and economic development. Based on the analysis of the present situation of power enterprise performance research, and considering the characteristics of power grid operation, performance analysis requirements, actual data and other issues, this paper proposes a power grid performance analysis method based on DEA. In this method, R clustering technology is used to select the index, Q clustering technology is used to classify different power networks, and the validity of the selected index and classification is statistically tested. Then, DEA performance analysis is used to analyze the performance of the same kind of power grid, and relaxation variables are used to project the non-DEA effective power grid, so as to obtain the best way to improve the power grid performance, which is a fine performance analysis method. Finally, the performance of provincial power grid is empirically analyzed with the 11th five-year Plan and 2011 statistical data provided by CLP, and the effectiveness and practicability of the above methods are verified. The power grid is closely related to the development of social economy, and the development speed of power grid should not be immutable. Quantitative analysis of the coordination between power grid and load demand is one aspect of power grid performance analysis, and can provide the basis for power grid planning. Based on the statistical investigation project of the 11th five-year Plan of National Power Grid, this paper proposes a system method to analyze the coordination between power grid and load demand by Granger causality test, and studies the interaction between power grid development and load demand. In this method, the original data which do not meet the stationarity test of Granger causality analysis are processed by differential processing, and the data sequence meets the requirements of stationarity. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are verified by the statistical data of power grid from 1993 to 2011. The influence of statistical data quality on the effect of power grid performance analysis, and the quality of power statisticians directly affects the quality of statistical data. Based on the investigation and analysis of the quality of electric power statisticians, according to the basic theory of quality evaluation and the present situation of knowledge structure of electric power statisticians, this paper constructs the evaluation system of the quality of statisticians in electric power industry, explores an improved analytic hierarchy process based on Delphi method, calculates the weight of quality indexes layer by layer, and comprehensively calculates the comprehensive evaluation score of statisticians' quality. The quality of electric power statisticians in Zhejiang Province is empirically analyzed by using the training results of Zhejiang electric power statisticians in 2013.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP311.13;TM711

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