【摘要】：基于通用生成函數(shù)(universal generating function,UGF)方法和多狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)(multi-state system,MSS)理論,提出了廠站接線可靠性評(píng)估的模型和算法,解析獲得反映廠站接線整體性能的多狀態(tài)概率分布表達(dá)式,據(jù)此可靈活求取系統(tǒng)可靠性指標(biāo)。通過分析廠站接線的特點(diǎn),定義了合適的性能函數(shù)和相應(yīng)的算子,將各元件的連通性歸并到各自起始節(jié)點(diǎn)上,以多項(xiàng)式的形式建立各節(jié)點(diǎn)的u函數(shù)模型,并通過節(jié)點(diǎn)集的u函數(shù)運(yùn)算,獲得綜合反映廠站接線故障后果及其發(fā)生概率的多狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)u函數(shù);針對(duì)多環(huán)形拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)中元件的備用與功率的轉(zhuǎn)移,引入橋連結(jié)構(gòu)及其修正計(jì)算,改進(jìn)了UGF方法難以處理無向圖的不足;為降低計(jì)算復(fù)雜度,通過前期對(duì)單純串并聯(lián)支路的等值和計(jì)算過程中的樣本縮減技術(shù),提高了計(jì)算效率。針對(duì)3/2接線方式的分析,及與蒙特卡羅方法計(jì)算結(jié)果的比較,驗(yàn)證了所提方法的正確性和有效性。
[Abstract]:Based on general-purpose generating function (universal generating function,UGF) method and multi-state system (multi-state system,MSS) theory, a model and algorithm for reliability evaluation of plant and station connection are proposed. The expression of multi-state probability distribution reflecting the overall performance of plant and station connection is obtained analytically. According to this, the reliability index of the system can be obtained flexibly. By analyzing the characteristics of the connection of the plant and station, the appropriate performance function and corresponding operator are defined, and the connectivity of each component is merged to their starting nodes, and the u function model of each node is established in the form of polynomials. Through the calculation of the u function of the node set, we obtain the u function of the multistate system which synthetically reflects the consequences and the occurrence probability of the connection fault of the plant and station, aiming at the backup and power transfer of the components in the multi-ring topology. The bridge connection structure and its modified calculation are introduced to improve the UGF method, which is difficult to deal with undirected graph. In order to reduce the computational complexity, the calculation efficiency is improved through the previous equivalent of simple series-parallel branch and the sample reduction technique in the calculation process. The correctness and validity of the proposed method are verified by the analysis of 3 / 2 connection mode and the comparison between the results of the proposed method and that of the Monte Carlo method.
【作者單位】： 電網(wǎng)智能化調(diào)度與控制教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(山東大學(xué));國網(wǎng)技術(shù)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51077087)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TM732

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