本文選題：電力市場 + 無功預測��； 參考：《華北電力大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：電力市場環(huán)境中,無功服務已經(jīng)被認定為最重要的服務之一。首先,電力系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性需要通過適量且分布合理的無功服務予以支持。其次,無功服務的優(yōu)化配置利用可以進一步改善有功的合理分配和交易,以達到實現(xiàn)提升電力系統(tǒng)的效率的目的。再者,電力市場環(huán)境下用于降損的最直接手段就是調(diào)節(jié)無功分布,通過無功功率的合理分配,可以實現(xiàn)降低系統(tǒng)的電能損耗。從電力服務角度上看,無功支持可以改善電壓波形,減少系統(tǒng)中出現(xiàn)的過電壓對電網(wǎng)安全和設備絕緣壽命的影響。隨著分布式新能源發(fā)電不斷并入電網(wǎng)中運行,由于分布式能源分散性、隨機性和間歇性的特點,出現(xiàn)了諧波污染、電壓失穩(wěn)及電壓閃變等問題,從而導致電網(wǎng)的安全穩(wěn)定面臨新的考驗,如何充分調(diào)配并發(fā)揮無功資源設備對電力系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定調(diào)節(jié)的作用顯得十分重要,同時為實現(xiàn)電力系統(tǒng)中各供應商的經(jīng)濟利益和國家能源節(jié)約的整體效益,采用無功定價及無功優(yōu)化措施實現(xiàn)激勵供應商積極改善無功服務支持的目標,最終通過資源的整合調(diào)配和高效利用達到經(jīng)濟效益最優(yōu)化。 本文針對分布式能源不斷并網(wǎng)運行的背景下,基于電力市場的特點對無功負荷預測、無功定價及無功優(yōu)化模型問題展開了研究,并對無功優(yōu)化后的效果進行了評價,具體研究內(nèi)容包括以下幾個方面： (1)在對負荷預測研究的基礎上,綜合分析各種預測方法,結(jié)合無功負荷的特點提出了一種時間序列與支持向量機組合無功預測模型,利用該模型對無功負荷進行預測,采用均方根相對誤差RMSRE對預測效果進行評估,算例證明該組合模型精度高,對無功負荷預測有較強的適用性。 (2)充分考慮分布式能源接入電網(wǎng)后系統(tǒng)安全穩(wěn)定問題,在無功定價經(jīng)典模型的基礎上,建立了基于電壓穩(wěn)定的無功定價新模型,通過計算仿真驗證了新型模型具有合理引導消費和提升電力系統(tǒng)安全穩(wěn)定的雙重效果。新型模型具有非線性特點,建立新型改進算法求解(結(jié)合免疫算法的改進多中心-校正內(nèi)點法),通過多種算法對比,該計算準確度高且速度快。 (3)本文建立了考慮分布式新能源發(fā)電機組組合的無功經(jīng)濟調(diào)度模型,利用該模型對電力系統(tǒng)無功經(jīng)濟調(diào)度優(yōu)化計算,以IEEE-14節(jié)點為例,分析計算了在考慮或不考慮網(wǎng)絡潮流約束及N-1故障集等多種情況下的發(fā)電機出力與無功優(yōu)化結(jié)果,得到了滿足電力系統(tǒng)安全約束且經(jīng)濟性明顯的發(fā)電計劃。 (4)文中最后對電網(wǎng)無功優(yōu)化的效果進行了評價,綜合分析了多種評價方法,結(jié)合無功服務的特點以及數(shù)據(jù)特點,構(gòu)建了無功效果評價的指標體系,采用了基于自主決策視角和數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析結(jié)合的方法對無功優(yōu)化的效果進行了綜合評價,計算結(jié)論表明無功優(yōu)化后的效果是明顯的。
[Abstract]:Reactive power service has been recognized as one of the most important services in electricity market environment. First of all, the stability of power system needs to be supported by moderate and reasonably distributed reactive power service. Secondly, the optimal allocation and utilization of reactive power service can further improve the rational distribution and transaction of active power, so as to achieve the purpose of improving the efficiency of power system. Furthermore, the most direct way to reduce the loss is to adjust the distribution of reactive power in the power market environment. Through the rational distribution of reactive power, the power loss of the system can be reduced. From the point of view of power service, reactive power support can improve voltage waveform and reduce the influence of overvoltage on power network safety and insulation life. As distributed new energy generation continues to run in the power grid, due to the characteristics of distributed energy dispersion, randomness and intermittence, harmonic pollution, voltage instability and voltage flicker occur. As a result, the safety and stability of the power network is facing a new test. It is very important how to fully deploy and play the role of reactive power resource equipment in the stable regulation of power system. At the same time, in order to realize the economic benefits of each supplier in power system and the overall benefit of national energy saving, reactive power pricing and reactive power optimization measures are adopted to achieve the goal of encouraging suppliers to actively improve reactive power service support. Finally, the optimization of economic benefits is achieved through the integration and allocation of resources and efficient utilization. In this paper, based on the characteristics of power market, reactive power load forecasting, reactive power pricing and reactive power optimization model are studied, and the effect of reactive power optimization is evaluated. The specific research contents include the following aspects: 1) based on the research of load forecasting, a combined reactive power forecasting model based on time series and support vector machine is put forward, which is used to forecast reactive power load by synthetically analyzing various forecasting methods and combining the characteristics of reactive power load. The root-mean-square relative error (RMSRE) is used to evaluate the prediction effect. An example shows that the combined model has high accuracy and is suitable for reactive load forecasting. 2) considering the security and stability of the system after the distributed energy is connected to the power network, a new reactive power pricing model based on voltage stability is established on the basis of the classical model of reactive power pricing. The simulation results show that the new model has the dual effects of reasonably guiding consumption and improving the safety and stability of power system. The new model has the characteristics of nonlinearity, and a new improved algorithm is established to solve the problem (the improved polycentre-corrector interior point method combined with the immune algorithm). Through the comparison of various algorithms, the calculation accuracy is high and the speed is fast. In this paper, a reactive power economic dispatching model considering the combination of distributed new energy generating sets is established. The model is used to optimize the reactive power economic dispatch of power system. The IEEE-14 node is taken as an example. The generator output and reactive power optimization results with or without considering network power flow constraints and N-1 fault sets are analyzed and calculated. A generation plan which meets the safety constraints of power system and is economical is obtained. Finally, the paper evaluates the effect of reactive power optimization in power network, and analyzes comprehensively various evaluation methods. Combining the characteristics of reactive power service and the characteristics of data, the index system of reactive power effect evaluation is constructed. Based on the independent decision angle and data envelopment analysis, the effect of reactive power optimization is evaluated synthetically. The results show that the effect of reactive power optimization is obvious.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F224

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