本文選題：新能源發(fā)電 + 可靠性評(píng)估　； 參考：《燕山大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：新能源發(fā)電的大規(guī)模利用是當(dāng)今世界電力系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)，合理利用新能源將起到緩解能源緊缺、遏制環(huán)境污染、改善人民生活水平的作用。但不容忽視的是新能源發(fā)電具有一次能源不可控、輸出功率不穩(wěn)定的特點(diǎn)，有必要研究其在電網(wǎng)中滲透率較高時(shí)對(duì)電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行的影響，本文主要從供電可靠性的角度進(jìn)行了研究。 本文首先建立了新能源發(fā)電的可靠性模型，提出了基于支持向量機(jī)的時(shí)序數(shù)據(jù)滾動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)模型，用于獲得一次能源的電能轉(zhuǎn)換參數(shù)。利用風(fēng)電場(chǎng)及光伏電站的功率輸出模型，可計(jì)算實(shí)時(shí)的功率輸出數(shù)據(jù)。此外，還介紹了用于可靠性分析的系統(tǒng)組件停運(yùn)模型。 然后，從傳統(tǒng)的狀態(tài)空間選擇方法入手，綜合考慮故障重?cái)?shù)截止法與蒙特卡羅模擬法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，建立了基于這兩種方法的系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)混合抽樣法。通過(guò)仿真結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了該方法可以在滿足仿真精度要求的前提下大幅度降低可靠性評(píng)估的時(shí)間，有利于提高電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估的效率。 接著，分析了抽樣后的系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)，利用圖論中鄰接矩陣的特性判定系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)，，達(dá)到明確故障后系統(tǒng)組成的目的。在此基礎(chǔ)上引入了基于潮流跟蹤的新能源發(fā)電影響因子，并考慮到常規(guī)機(jī)組爬坡率與新能源利用率的約束，改進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)的切負(fù)荷模型。通過(guò)仿真驗(yàn)證了改進(jìn)后最優(yōu)切負(fù)荷模型的有效性，在研究新能源的背景下，該模型更符合實(shí)際情況且具有優(yōu)化系統(tǒng)可靠性的效果。 最后，制定了可靠性評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系，明確了可靠性評(píng)估的流程，以某區(qū)域?qū)嶋H電網(wǎng)為仿真對(duì)象，在其中不同位置加入不同類(lèi)型不同容量的新能源電源，分析了不同情況下的仿真結(jié)果。對(duì)大規(guī)模新能源并網(wǎng)后的系統(tǒng)可靠性變化有了較為全面的了解，并得到了關(guān)于提高系統(tǒng)可靠性、新能源電源選址定容、改善系統(tǒng)薄弱環(huán)節(jié)的若干結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:The large-scale utilization of new energy power generation is the trend of the development of power system in the world. Rational utilization of new energy will alleviate the energy shortage, curb environmental pollution and improve the people's living standard. However, it can not be ignored that new energy generation has the characteristics of uncontrollable primary energy and unstable output power. It is necessary to study the influence of high permeability in power grid on the safe and stable operation of power grid. This paper mainly studies the reliability of power supply. In this paper, the reliability model of new energy generation is established, and the rolling prediction model of time series data based on support vector machine (SVM) is proposed, which can be used to obtain the energy conversion parameters of primary energy. Using the power output model of wind farm and photovoltaic power station, real-time power output data can be calculated. In addition, the system component outage model for reliability analysis is also introduced. Then, starting with the traditional state space selection method and considering the advantages and disadvantages of fault multiplicity cutoff method and Monte Carlo simulation method, a system state mixed sampling method based on these two methods is established. The simulation results show that the proposed method can greatly reduce the time of reliability evaluation and improve the efficiency of reliability evaluation of power system on the premise of satisfying the requirement of simulation accuracy. Then, the state of the system after sampling is analyzed, and the structure of the system is determined by the characteristics of the adjacent matrix in graph theory, so as to make clear the composition of the system after the fault. Based on this, the influence factors of new energy generation based on power flow tracking are introduced, and the traditional load shedding model is improved considering the constraints of slope climbing rate and new energy utilization ratio of conventional units. The effectiveness of the improved optimal load shedding model is verified by simulation. Under the background of new energy research, the model is more suitable to the actual situation and has the effect of optimizing system reliability. Finally, the reliability evaluation index system is established, and the process of reliability evaluation is clarified. Taking the actual power grid in a certain area as the simulation object, different types of new energy sources with different capacities are added in different locations. The simulation results under different conditions are analyzed. This paper gives a comprehensive understanding of the system reliability changes after the large-scale new energy is connected to the grid, and obtains some conclusions on improving the system reliability, the location and capacity of the new energy source, and the weak links of the system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM732

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