本文選題：風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè) + 風(fēng)速修正��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量的迅猛增長(zhǎng),由于風(fēng)電的高度波動(dòng)性和隨機(jī)性,大規(guī)模風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)已成為制約中國(guó)風(fēng)電發(fā)展的最大瓶頸。對(duì)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)輸出功率進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的超短期預(yù)測(cè)可以為實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)整電網(wǎng)調(diào)度計(jì)劃、安排備用容量提供依據(jù),有利于提高系統(tǒng)的安全穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行。同時(shí),大規(guī)模風(fēng)電基地接入比例增加,也對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的暫態(tài)安全穩(wěn)定性造成了影響,使電力系統(tǒng)在嚴(yán)重故障下的緊急控制必須考慮風(fēng)電機(jī)組的影響,制定相應(yīng)的緊急控制方案。本文通過研究風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)和風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)暫態(tài)切機(jī)控制的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),主要進(jìn)行了以下幾個(gè)方面的研究： 1、介紹了風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)的主要方法及國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,結(jié)合實(shí)際風(fēng)場(chǎng)歷史風(fēng)能數(shù)據(jù)和數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)信息,對(duì)SCADA數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行補(bǔ)充修正,分析影響風(fēng)申.機(jī)組輸出功率的各項(xiàng)因素,并利用模糊C-均值聚類算法進(jìn)行了相似日聚類。 2、對(duì)大規(guī)模風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)的暫態(tài)穩(wěn)定性研究進(jìn)行了綜述,介紹了不同風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)輸送通道的特點(diǎn)和PSASP風(fēng)機(jī)仿真模型,最后給出了東北某區(qū)域算例電網(wǎng)的參數(shù)和風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)消納存在的問題。 3、提出了一種基于在線序貫極限學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)(OS-ELM)的超短期風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測(cè)方法。利用OS-ELM學(xué)習(xí)速度快、泛化能力強(qiáng)的優(yōu)點(diǎn),將批處理和逐次迭代相結(jié)合,不斷更新訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu),實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)風(fēng)速的快速實(shí)時(shí)修正和風(fēng)機(jī)輸出功率的快速預(yù)測(cè)。 4、構(gòu)造了基于計(jì)算機(jī)自助法(Bootstrap)的多ELM誤差評(píng)估網(wǎng)絡(luò),產(chǎn)生Bootstrap樣本,通過修正偏差后的百分位數(shù)Bootstrap(BCPB)法給出了風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè)功率的置信區(qū)間評(píng)估。 5、分析了雙饋風(fēng)機(jī)的運(yùn)行特性,采用PSASP對(duì)算例系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了暫態(tài)穩(wěn)定校驗(yàn)以及嚴(yán)重故障下的風(fēng)火電聯(lián)合切機(jī)控制方案的仿真。結(jié)果表明系統(tǒng)存在最優(yōu)的風(fēng)火比例切機(jī)方案
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of wind power installed capacity due to the high volatility and randomness of wind power large-scale wind power grid connection has become the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of wind power in China. Accurate ultra-short-term prediction of wind farm output power can provide the basis for real-time adjustment of power grid dispatching plan and arrangement of reserve capacity, which is conducive to improving the system's safety, stability and economic operation. At the same time, the proportion of large-scale wind power base access is increased, which also has an impact on the transient security and stability of power system. Therefore, the emergency control of power system under serious faults must consider the impact of wind turbine, and formulate the corresponding emergency control scheme. Based on the research of wind power prediction and the related literature of wind power grid-connected transient cutting machine control, the following aspects are studied in this paper:--- 1. The main methods of wind power prediction and the present research situation at home and abroad are introduced. Combined with the historical wind energy data of actual wind field and numerical weather forecast information, the SCADA data are supplemented and corrected to analyze the wind impact. The factors of the output power of the unit are analyzed, and the similar day clustering is carried out by using the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm. 2. The research on transient stability of large-scale wind power grid is summarized. The characteristics of different wind power transmission channels and the simulation model of PSASP fan are introduced. Finally, the parameters of a regional grid and the existing problems of wind power grid absorption are given. 3. A prediction method of ultra-short term wind power based on online sequential learning machine (OS-ELM) is proposed. Based on the advantages of fast learning speed and strong generalization ability of OS-ELM, the training data and network structure are continuously updated by combining batch processing with successive iterations. The fast real-time correction of wind speed and the fast prediction of fan output power are realized. 4. A multiple ELM error evaluation network based on the self-help method of computer is constructed to generate Bootstrap samples. The confidence interval evaluation of the predicted power of wind power is given by using the modified percentile Bootstrapper BCPB method. 5. The operation characteristics of the doubly-fed fan are analyzed, and the transient stability check of the system with PSASP and the simulation of the control scheme of the wind power combined cutting machine under the serious fault are carried out. The results show that the system has an optimal scheme of wind and fire proportional cutting machine.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM614

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本文編號(hào)：1780704