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  本文選題：超短期風電預測功率　切入點：跟蹤風電計劃出力　出處：《華北電力大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近些年來,電力系統(tǒng)處于快速發(fā)展時期以及關鍵的轉(zhuǎn)型期,風力發(fā)電由于環(huán)保的優(yōu)勢得到了快速的發(fā)展,在過去幾年內(nèi)擴張的速度十分迅猛。但是由于風力發(fā)電波動性和隨機性而難以預測發(fā)電功率。為了防止風電大規(guī)模接入給電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定帶來的影響,制定了風電跟蹤計劃出力能力、波動率等相關的規(guī)定。由于預測技術(shù)的限制,風電預測功率仍然存在較大誤差。單純通過對風電的控制提高其跟蹤計劃出力能力具有困難性,儲能為提高風電跟蹤計劃出力能力提供了可能性。為了最大程度地提高風電跟蹤計劃出力能力,本文基于超短期風電預測功率,建立了包含5個控制系數(shù)的儲能系統(tǒng)充放電控制策略,并提出了利用粒子群優(yōu)化算法實時優(yōu)化儲能系統(tǒng)充放電控制系數(shù)的方法,以減少日前短期風電預測誤差。以典型風電場為例進行仿真分析,對固定系數(shù)方法及滾動優(yōu)化系數(shù)方法進行了比較,并分析了影響預測精度的因素,結(jié)果驗證了所提方法的可行性。由于多類型儲能相較于單類型儲能具有優(yōu)勢,本文建立了目標功率在功率型儲能和能量型儲能之間的分配原則,并且通過模糊控制原理對功率型儲能的功率進行了相關的優(yōu)化控制。通過算例將多類型儲能提高風電跟蹤計劃出力的控制效果與同等容量的單類型儲能相對比。結(jié)果表明。多類型儲能能夠充分結(jié)合兩種類型儲能的優(yōu)點,更大程度的提高風電跟蹤計劃出力能力,降低風電接入對電力系統(tǒng)安全穩(wěn)定的影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the power system is in a period of rapid development and a critical transition period. Wind power generation has been rapidly developed due to the advantages of environmental protection, and the expansion rate has been very rapid in the past few years.However, it is difficult to predict the generation power due to the volatility and randomness of wind power generation.In order to prevent the impact of large-scale wind power access on the safety and stability of the power grid, the wind power tracking planning capacity, volatility and other relevant regulations are formulated.Due to the limitation of prediction technology, there are still large errors in wind power prediction.It is difficult to improve the ability of tracking and planning output by controlling wind power, and energy storage provides the possibility for improving the ability of wind power tracking.In order to improve the capacity of wind power tracking, a charging and discharging control strategy of energy storage system with five control coefficients is established based on the prediction of power of ultra-short term wind power.A method of real-time optimizing the charge and discharge control coefficient of energy storage system using particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed in order to reduce the prediction error of short-term wind power before the day.Taking the typical wind farm as an example, the fixed coefficient method and the rolling optimization coefficient method are compared, and the factors influencing the prediction accuracy are analyzed. The results show that the proposed method is feasible.Because of the superiority of multi-type energy storage over single type energy storage, the distribution principle of target power between power-type energy storage and energy-type energy storage is established in this paper.The power of power storage is optimized by fuzzy control theory.The control effect of multi-type energy storage is compared with that of single-type energy storage of the same capacity.The results show that.Multi-type energy storage can fully combine the advantages of two types of energy storage, improve the ability of wind power tracking planning to a greater extent, reduce the impact of wind power access on the safety and stability of power system.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM614

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本文編號：1723041