不定期船舶航線優(yōu)化問題研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-11 16:23
【摘要】：不定期船運輸是國際間運輸糧食、鐵礦石、煤炭等大宗干散貨物的主要方式,與班輪相比具有顯著的區(qū)別,它不具有固定的航行線路、船期表及掛靠港,運輸?shù)撵`活性較高,受決策者的影響較大。不定期船航線規(guī)劃受三大因素的影響,第一,干散貨物的運輸需求具有很強的不確定性；第二,運費率季節(jié)性波動；第三,船舶運輸易受天氣因素干擾。因此,對于決策者而言,在需求不確定的情況下,如何調(diào)度船舶、優(yōu)化航線是急需解決的問題。本文在分析以上三大隨機因素對不定期船運輸?shù)挠绊懙幕A(chǔ)上,研究不定期船舶航線規(guī)劃問題。建立了以營運周期內(nèi)總航次利潤最大為目標(biāo)的數(shù)學(xué)模型,將模型中貨物的運價設(shè)定為變動的量,模擬運費率季節(jié)性波動的特點,模型中還引入了延誤成本,主要用來計算因天氣因素發(fā)生海上延誤所增加的成本,而需求的不確定性主要體現(xiàn)在模型求解的過程中。之后,運用一種智能的啟發(fā)式算法對模型進行求解,為了保證染色體的長度相等并保留基因的多樣性,算法中引入了虛擬船舶,用來運輸實際船舶所不能運輸?shù)呢浳�。本文將一年的�?guī)劃周期按季度分為四個階段,每個階段初根據(jù)更新了的現(xiàn)有貨物情況調(diào)整每條船舶的航線,那么虛擬船舶的另一個重要作用是：當(dāng)市場上出現(xiàn)即期貨物后,可能需要對原本的航線重新進行規(guī)劃,在新的運輸方案下,原本虛擬船舶中的貨物可能可以被運輸,若在前期就將這批貨物舍棄,可能影響最佳運輸方案。最后,以一家經(jīng)營環(huán)太平洋不定期運輸航線的中國船公司為例進行算例分析,并進行了敏感度分析和算法評價。研究表明,本文為不定期船公司經(jīng)營者提供了一個科學(xué)的指派貨物、調(diào)度船舶方法。該方法綜合考慮到貨物運輸需求的不確定性、運費率的季節(jié)性和天體因素的影響,使船舶的調(diào)度更適應(yīng)于市場的需求,而且能幫助船公司獲得豐厚利潤。
[Abstract]:Irregular shipping is the main mode of international transportation of bulk dry bulk cargo, such as grain, iron ore, coal, etc., which is significantly different from liner. It does not have a fixed navigation line, ship schedule and port of port, and the transport flexibility is high. It is greatly influenced by decision makers. The route planning of irregular ships is affected by three factors. First, the transportation demand of dry bulk cargo is very uncertain; second, the freight rate fluctuates seasonally; third, ship transportation is easily disturbed by weather factors. Therefore, for decision makers, how to schedule ships and optimize routes is an urgent problem to be solved under the condition of uncertain demand. Based on the analysis of the influence of the above three random factors on the transportation of irregular ships, this paper studies the problem of route planning of irregular ships. A mathematical model aiming at the maximum total voyage profit in the operation cycle is established. The freight rate of the goods in the model is set as the variable quantity, and the seasonal fluctuation of the freight rate is simulated. The delay cost is also introduced into the model. It is mainly used to calculate the cost of marine delay due to weather factors, and the uncertainty of demand is mainly reflected in the process of solving the model. Then, an intelligent heuristic algorithm is used to solve the model. In order to ensure the equal length of chromosomes and retain the diversity of genes, virtual ships are introduced into the algorithm to transport goods that can not be transported by actual ships. In this paper, the one-year planning cycle is divided into four phases on a quarterly basis. At the beginning of each phase, the course of each ship is adjusted according to the updated existing cargo. Then another important role of the virtual ship is: when spot cargo appears on the market, The original route may need to be replanned. Under the new transportation scheme, the goods in the original virtual ship may be transported, and if the goods are abandoned in the early stage, the best transportation plan may be affected. Finally, a Chinese shipping company operating irregular shipping routes around the Pacific Ocean is taken as an example to analyze, and the sensitivity analysis and algorithm evaluation are carried out. The research shows that this paper provides a scientific method for the operators of irregular shipping companies to assign goods and dispatch ships. This method takes into account the uncertainty of cargo transportation demand, the seasonality of freight rate and the influence of celestial factors, which makes the ship scheduling more suitable for the market demand, and can help the shipping company to obtain rich profits.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U692.31
本文編號：2474653
[Abstract]:Irregular shipping is the main mode of international transportation of bulk dry bulk cargo, such as grain, iron ore, coal, etc., which is significantly different from liner. It does not have a fixed navigation line, ship schedule and port of port, and the transport flexibility is high. It is greatly influenced by decision makers. The route planning of irregular ships is affected by three factors. First, the transportation demand of dry bulk cargo is very uncertain; second, the freight rate fluctuates seasonally; third, ship transportation is easily disturbed by weather factors. Therefore, for decision makers, how to schedule ships and optimize routes is an urgent problem to be solved under the condition of uncertain demand. Based on the analysis of the influence of the above three random factors on the transportation of irregular ships, this paper studies the problem of route planning of irregular ships. A mathematical model aiming at the maximum total voyage profit in the operation cycle is established. The freight rate of the goods in the model is set as the variable quantity, and the seasonal fluctuation of the freight rate is simulated. The delay cost is also introduced into the model. It is mainly used to calculate the cost of marine delay due to weather factors, and the uncertainty of demand is mainly reflected in the process of solving the model. Then, an intelligent heuristic algorithm is used to solve the model. In order to ensure the equal length of chromosomes and retain the diversity of genes, virtual ships are introduced into the algorithm to transport goods that can not be transported by actual ships. In this paper, the one-year planning cycle is divided into four phases on a quarterly basis. At the beginning of each phase, the course of each ship is adjusted according to the updated existing cargo. Then another important role of the virtual ship is: when spot cargo appears on the market, The original route may need to be replanned. Under the new transportation scheme, the goods in the original virtual ship may be transported, and if the goods are abandoned in the early stage, the best transportation plan may be affected. Finally, a Chinese shipping company operating irregular shipping routes around the Pacific Ocean is taken as an example to analyze, and the sensitivity analysis and algorithm evaluation are carried out. The research shows that this paper provides a scientific method for the operators of irregular shipping companies to assign goods and dispatch ships. This method takes into account the uncertainty of cargo transportation demand, the seasonality of freight rate and the influence of celestial factors, which makes the ship scheduling more suitable for the market demand, and can help the shipping company to obtain rich profits.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U692.31
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