【摘要】：不定期船運(yùn)輸是國(guó)際間運(yùn)輸糧食、鐵礦石、煤炭等大宗干散貨物的主要方式,與班輪相比具有顯著的區(qū)別,它不具有固定的航行線路、船期表及掛靠港,運(yùn)輸?shù)撵`活性較高,受決策者的影響較大。不定期船航線規(guī)劃受三大因素的影響,第一,干散貨物的運(yùn)輸需求具有很強(qiáng)的不確定性；第二,運(yùn)費(fèi)率季節(jié)性波動(dòng)；第三,船舶運(yùn)輸易受天氣因素干擾。因此,對(duì)于決策者而言,在需求不確定的情況下,如何調(diào)度船舶、優(yōu)化航線是急需解決的問題。本文在分析以上三大隨機(jī)因素對(duì)不定期船運(yùn)輸?shù)挠绊懙幕A(chǔ)上,研究不定期船舶航線規(guī)劃問題。建立了以營(yíng)運(yùn)周期內(nèi)總航次利潤(rùn)最大為目標(biāo)的數(shù)學(xué)模型,將模型中貨物的運(yùn)價(jià)設(shè)定為變動(dòng)的量,模擬運(yùn)費(fèi)率季節(jié)性波動(dòng)的特點(diǎn),模型中還引入了延誤成本,主要用來計(jì)算因天氣因素發(fā)生海上延誤所增加的成本,而需求的不確定性主要體現(xiàn)在模型求解的過程中。之后,運(yùn)用一種智能的啟發(fā)式算法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行求解,為了保證染色體的長(zhǎng)度相等并保留基因的多樣性,算法中引入了虛擬船舶,用來運(yùn)輸實(shí)際船舶所不能運(yùn)輸?shù)呢浳�。本文將一年的�?guī)劃周期按季度分為四個(gè)階段,每個(gè)階段初根據(jù)更新了的現(xiàn)有貨物情況調(diào)整每條船舶的航線,那么虛擬船舶的另一個(gè)重要作用是：當(dāng)市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)即期貨物后,可能需要對(duì)原本的航線重新進(jìn)行規(guī)劃,在新的運(yùn)輸方案下,原本虛擬船舶中的貨物可能可以被運(yùn)輸,若在前期就將這批貨物舍棄,可能影響最佳運(yùn)輸方案。最后,以一家經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)太平洋不定期運(yùn)輸航線的中國(guó)船公司為例進(jìn)行算例分析,并進(jìn)行了敏感度分析和算法評(píng)價(jià)。研究表明,本文為不定期船公司經(jīng)營(yíng)者提供了一個(gè)科學(xué)的指派貨物、調(diào)度船舶方法。該方法綜合考慮到貨物運(yùn)輸需求的不確定性、運(yùn)費(fèi)率的季節(jié)性和天體因素的影響,使船舶的調(diào)度更適應(yīng)于市場(chǎng)的需求,而且能幫助船公司獲得豐厚利潤(rùn)。
[Abstract]:Irregular shipping is the main mode of international transportation of bulk dry bulk cargo, such as grain, iron ore, coal, etc., which is significantly different from liner. It does not have a fixed navigation line, ship schedule and port of port, and the transport flexibility is high. It is greatly influenced by decision makers. The route planning of irregular ships is affected by three factors. First, the transportation demand of dry bulk cargo is very uncertain; second, the freight rate fluctuates seasonally; third, ship transportation is easily disturbed by weather factors. Therefore, for decision makers, how to schedule ships and optimize routes is an urgent problem to be solved under the condition of uncertain demand. Based on the analysis of the influence of the above three random factors on the transportation of irregular ships, this paper studies the problem of route planning of irregular ships. A mathematical model aiming at the maximum total voyage profit in the operation cycle is established. The freight rate of the goods in the model is set as the variable quantity, and the seasonal fluctuation of the freight rate is simulated. The delay cost is also introduced into the model. It is mainly used to calculate the cost of marine delay due to weather factors, and the uncertainty of demand is mainly reflected in the process of solving the model. Then, an intelligent heuristic algorithm is used to solve the model. In order to ensure the equal length of chromosomes and retain the diversity of genes, virtual ships are introduced into the algorithm to transport goods that can not be transported by actual ships. In this paper, the one-year planning cycle is divided into four phases on a quarterly basis. At the beginning of each phase, the course of each ship is adjusted according to the updated existing cargo. Then another important role of the virtual ship is: when spot cargo appears on the market, The original route may need to be replanned. Under the new transportation scheme, the goods in the original virtual ship may be transported, and if the goods are abandoned in the early stage, the best transportation plan may be affected. Finally, a Chinese shipping company operating irregular shipping routes around the Pacific Ocean is taken as an example to analyze, and the sensitivity analysis and algorithm evaluation are carried out. The research shows that this paper provides a scientific method for the operators of irregular shipping companies to assign goods and dispatch ships. This method takes into account the uncertainty of cargo transportation demand, the seasonality of freight rate and the influence of celestial factors, which makes the ship scheduling more suitable for the market demand, and can help the shipping company to obtain rich profits.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U692.31

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本文編號(hào)：2474653