【摘要】：近年來(lái),我國(guó)快速發(fā)展的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和不斷提高的生活水平,使得汽車(chē)保有量逐年攀升�？焖僭鲩L(zhǎng)的汽車(chē)保有量,不僅給人民群眾的出行帶來(lái)了便利,同時(shí)也導(dǎo)致了城市交通擁堵問(wèn)題的出現(xiàn)。采用行為(Revealed Preference,RP)調(diào)查和意向(Stated Preference,SP)調(diào)查聯(lián)合調(diào)查,分析駕駛?cè)藢?duì)可變信息標(biāo)注(Variable Massage Signs,VMS)關(guān)注度的影響因素,挖掘影響駕駛?cè)寺窂竭x擇行為的因素,從VMS信息對(duì)出行者路徑選擇行為的影響機(jī)理出發(fā),優(yōu)化可變信息情報(bào)板上VMS信息的設(shè)計(jì),實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)駕駛?cè)寺窂竭x擇更加有效的誘導(dǎo),最終達(dá)到緩解日益嚴(yán)重的交通擁堵的目的。本研究結(jié)合西安市二環(huán),對(duì)城市道路的VMS信息進(jìn)行優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)。首先,從駕駛?cè)藗�(gè)人屬性、出行特征、VMS信息發(fā)布形式和內(nèi)容4個(gè)方面選取8個(gè)自變量構(gòu)建駕駛?cè)藢?duì)VMS信息關(guān)注度的有序Logit模型和部分優(yōu)勢(shì)比模型,分析顯著影響駕駛?cè)藢?duì)VMS信息關(guān)注度的因素。通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)指標(biāo)對(duì)比分析有序Logit模型和部分優(yōu)勢(shì)比模型的優(yōu)劣。采用彈性分析的方法,定量分析顯著影響因素對(duì)駕駛?cè)岁P(guān)注VMS信息的影響程度。以西安市城市道路上的駕駛?cè)藢?duì)二環(huán)可變信息情報(bào)板上的VMS信息的關(guān)注度為例,進(jìn)行實(shí)證性分析研究。其次,從駕駛?cè)藗�(gè)人屬性、出行特征和路況信息屬性3個(gè)方面選取11個(gè)變量構(gòu)建駕駛?cè)寺窂竭x擇二項(xiàng)Logit模型,并引進(jìn)Jackknife和Bootstrap技術(shù)進(jìn)一步提高Logit模型的精度。分類(lèi)討論發(fā)布VMS信息發(fā)布內(nèi)容中是否建議繞行、擁堵時(shí)間和擁堵原因以及VMS信息的發(fā)布形式和更新頻率對(duì)駕駛?cè)寺窂竭x擇的影響程度。以西安市南二環(huán)上的駕駛?cè)藢?duì)路徑選擇的選擇為例,進(jìn)行實(shí)證性分析研究。最后,從駕駛?cè)藗�(gè)人屬性、出行特征、出行天氣、路況信息屬性和信息發(fā)布顏色5個(gè)方面選取16個(gè)自變量構(gòu)建優(yōu)化VMS信息的多項(xiàng)Logit模型和巢式Logit模型。通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)指標(biāo)對(duì)比分析多項(xiàng)Logit模型和巢式Logit模型的優(yōu)劣。采用彈性分析的方法,定量分析顯著影響因素影響駕駛?cè)藢?duì)VMS信息偏好的程度。以西安市城市道路上的駕駛?cè)藢?duì)西安市二環(huán)上可變信息情報(bào)板上的VMS信息的偏好情況為例,進(jìn)行實(shí)證性分析研究。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of social economy and rising living standard in China, the number of cars has been increasing year by year. The rapid growth of vehicle ownership not only brings convenience to people's travel, but also leads to the emergence of urban traffic congestion. In this paper, Revealed Preference,RP survey and Stated Preference,SP survey are used to analyze the influencing factors of the driver's attention to variable information tagging (Variable Massage Signs,VMS), and to excavate the factors that affect the driver's path choice behavior. Based on the mechanism of the influence of VMS information on the path selection behavior of travelers, the design of VMS information on the variable information board is optimized to induce the driver route selection more effectively, and finally to alleviate the increasingly serious traffic congestion. In this study, the VMS information of urban roads is optimized with the second ring of Xi'an city. First of all, eight independent variables are selected from four aspects of driver's personal attributes, travel characteristics, VMS information release form and content to construct the orderly Logit model and partial advantage ratio model of the driver's attention to VMS information. The factors that significantly affect the attention of drivers to VMS information are analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of the ordered Logit model and the partial dominance ratio model are analyzed by comparing the test indexes. Elastic analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of significant influencing factors on driver's attention to VMS information. Taking the attention of the drivers on Xi'an city road to the VMS information on the second ring variable information board as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out. Secondly, 11 variables are selected from the driver's personal attributes, travel characteristics and road information attributes to construct the binomial Logit model of driver's path selection, and the Jackknife and Bootstrap techniques are introduced to further improve the accuracy of the Logit model. The classification discusses whether to make a detour in the publication of VMS information, the congestion time and the reason of congestion, and the influence of the distribution form and update frequency of VMS information on the driver's path choice. Taking the driver's choice of route choice on the second Ring Road of Xi'an as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out. Finally, 16 independent variables are selected from five aspects: personal attributes of driver, travel characteristics, travel weather, road condition information attributes and information publishing color to construct multi-item Logit model and nested Logit model for optimizing VMS information. The advantages and disadvantages of multi-item Logit model and nested Logit model are analyzed by comparing the test indexes. By means of elastic analysis, the degree of drivers' preference for VMS information was analyzed quantitatively. Taking the preference of drivers on Xi'an city road to the VMS information on the variable information board of the second ring of Xi'an city as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U495

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