事故條件下城市主干路交通擁擠態(tài)勢預(yù)測及評估研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-02-09 18:14
【摘要】：隨著我國城市化進程的不斷推進,車輛保有量仍處于上漲態(tài)勢,城市交通面臨著嚴峻壓力,與此同時,城市交通道路事故頻發(fā),造成交通擁擠,路網(wǎng)運行效率降低,給社會經(jīng)濟帶來不利損失。面對城市復雜路網(wǎng)上的交通突發(fā)事故,疏堵減災(zāi)、減弱路網(wǎng)波及影響、維持路網(wǎng)交通流平穩(wěn)有序運行成為亟待解決的城市交通問題,此問題解決需要對事故所引發(fā)擁擠的態(tài)勢發(fā)展規(guī)律、影響范圍及嚴重程度有清晰的認識和評估。本文在國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,研究事故條件下道路擁擠產(chǎn)生和蔓延規(guī)律,分析影響擁擠態(tài)勢發(fā)展的影響因素及其作用機理;針對城市主干路,研究事故發(fā)生后,偶發(fā)性擁擠在路網(wǎng)空間蔓延形成的影響范圍的預(yù)測方法,并對相應(yīng)交通狀態(tài)下對交通擁擠態(tài)勢嚴重度進行評估。首先,分析道路交通擁擠類型、擁擠特性和擁擠度量標準,研究事故條件下城市道路擁擠態(tài)勢的影響因素,包括事故情景、實時交通環(huán)境、事發(fā)道路等級、事故發(fā)生位置、路網(wǎng)形態(tài)和主觀駕駛行為等,分析各因素的影響機理,確定事故繼發(fā)性擁擠產(chǎn)生的判別條件,并對論文研究的基本情景進行設(shè)定。其次,基于交通波理論和Van Aerde模型構(gòu)建擁擠沿事發(fā)道路的蔓延速度預(yù)測模型,并根據(jù)主干路的交通功能和交通流特性,考慮事故占用行車道、車輛行駛過程換道行為及車流行經(jīng)信號交叉口的影響對模型進行修正,給出模型計算流程及方法。再次,深入分析事故所引發(fā)擁擠在路網(wǎng)交叉口處的蔓延機理,基于擁擠蔓延速度預(yù)測模型,預(yù)測擁擠沿事發(fā)主干路蔓延的空間長度,設(shè)計案例,并利用VISSIM 4.3軟件平臺進行仿真驗證,提取軟件仿真參數(shù),分析擁擠蔓延路段的交通狀態(tài)特性;基于擁擠沿事發(fā)主干路的蔓延范圍,制定事發(fā)主干路周邊路網(wǎng)上道路接受擁擠判定的順序和規(guī)則,選取擁擠判定指標并確定指標閾值,結(jié)合道路交通參數(shù)的獲取及指標值計算,確定或預(yù)測交通擁擠在區(qū)域路網(wǎng)上的空間影響范圍。最后,設(shè)計事故條件下道路交通擁擠態(tài)勢的評估流程,建立擁擠態(tài)勢評估指標體系,體系包括交通擁擠態(tài)勢發(fā)展指標和后果指標,分別考慮事故擁擠蔓延速度和程度兩個層面對擁擠態(tài)勢的影響,利用模糊綜合評價方法對道路交通擁擠態(tài)勢嚴重程度進行綜合評估,并判定擁擠態(tài)勢等級。
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization in China, the number of vehicles is still on the rise, and the urban traffic is facing severe pressure. At the same time, urban traffic accidents occur frequently, resulting in traffic congestion, and the efficiency of road network operation is reduced. Bring adverse losses to the society and economy. In the face of traffic accidents on the complex road network, it is an urgent problem to solve the urban traffic problems, such as blocking and disaster reduction, weakening the impact of road network ripple, and maintaining the smooth and orderly operation of road network traffic flow. To solve this problem, it is necessary to have a clear understanding and evaluation of the situation of congestion caused by the accident, the extent of influence and the severity. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper studies the rule of road congestion generation and spread under the condition of accident, and analyzes the influencing factors and its action mechanism of the development of congestion situation. In view of the urban trunk road, this paper studies the prediction method of the influence range of accidental congestion in the road network space after the accident, and evaluates the severity of traffic congestion situation under the corresponding traffic condition. First of all, it analyzes the types, characteristics and metrics of traffic congestion, and studies the influencing factors of urban road congestion situation under accident conditions, including accident scenarios, real-time traffic environment, accident road grade, accident location. The road network shape and subjective driving behavior are analyzed, the influencing mechanism of each factor is analyzed, the discriminant conditions of secondary congestion are determined, and the basic situation of this paper is set up. Secondly, based on the traffic wave theory and Van Aerde model, the prediction model of the spread speed of congestion along the accident road is constructed, and according to the traffic function and traffic flow characteristics of the trunk road, the traffic lane occupied by the accident is considered. The model is modified by the change behavior of the vehicle and the influence of the traffic flow through the signalized intersection, and the calculation flow and method of the model are given. Thirdly, the spread mechanism of congestion caused by accident at the intersection of road network is analyzed in depth. Based on the prediction model of congestion spread speed, the spatial length of congestion spread along the main road is predicted, and the design case is given. Using VISSIM 4.3 software platform for simulation verification, extract the software simulation parameters, analyze the traffic state characteristics of congestion spread section; Based on the spreading range of congestion along the main road, the order and rules of acceptance of congestion judgment on the road network around the main road are established, and the criteria and threshold of congestion are selected, combined with the acquisition of road traffic parameters and the calculation of index value. Determine or predict the spatial impact of traffic congestion on the regional road network. Finally, the evaluation process of traffic congestion situation under accident condition is designed, and the evaluation index system of congestion situation is established, which includes the development index and consequence index of traffic congestion situation. Considering the influence of the speed and degree of traffic congestion spread on the congestion situation, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the severity of traffic congestion situation and to judge the degree of congestion situation.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization in China, the number of vehicles is still on the rise, and the urban traffic is facing severe pressure. At the same time, urban traffic accidents occur frequently, resulting in traffic congestion, and the efficiency of road network operation is reduced. Bring adverse losses to the society and economy. In the face of traffic accidents on the complex road network, it is an urgent problem to solve the urban traffic problems, such as blocking and disaster reduction, weakening the impact of road network ripple, and maintaining the smooth and orderly operation of road network traffic flow. To solve this problem, it is necessary to have a clear understanding and evaluation of the situation of congestion caused by the accident, the extent of influence and the severity. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper studies the rule of road congestion generation and spread under the condition of accident, and analyzes the influencing factors and its action mechanism of the development of congestion situation. In view of the urban trunk road, this paper studies the prediction method of the influence range of accidental congestion in the road network space after the accident, and evaluates the severity of traffic congestion situation under the corresponding traffic condition. First of all, it analyzes the types, characteristics and metrics of traffic congestion, and studies the influencing factors of urban road congestion situation under accident conditions, including accident scenarios, real-time traffic environment, accident road grade, accident location. The road network shape and subjective driving behavior are analyzed, the influencing mechanism of each factor is analyzed, the discriminant conditions of secondary congestion are determined, and the basic situation of this paper is set up. Secondly, based on the traffic wave theory and Van Aerde model, the prediction model of the spread speed of congestion along the accident road is constructed, and according to the traffic function and traffic flow characteristics of the trunk road, the traffic lane occupied by the accident is considered. The model is modified by the change behavior of the vehicle and the influence of the traffic flow through the signalized intersection, and the calculation flow and method of the model are given. Thirdly, the spread mechanism of congestion caused by accident at the intersection of road network is analyzed in depth. Based on the prediction model of congestion spread speed, the spatial length of congestion spread along the main road is predicted, and the design case is given. Using VISSIM 4.3 software platform for simulation verification, extract the software simulation parameters, analyze the traffic state characteristics of congestion spread section; Based on the spreading range of congestion along the main road, the order and rules of acceptance of congestion judgment on the road network around the main road are established, and the criteria and threshold of congestion are selected, combined with the acquisition of road traffic parameters and the calculation of index value. Determine or predict the spatial impact of traffic congestion on the regional road network. Finally, the evaluation process of traffic congestion situation under accident condition is designed, and the evaluation index system of congestion situation is established, which includes the development index and consequence index of traffic congestion situation. Considering the influence of the speed and degree of traffic congestion spread on the congestion situation, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the severity of traffic congestion situation and to judge the degree of congestion situation.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491
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