【摘要】：當(dāng)前全球氣候正持續(xù)變暖,冰雪數(shù)據(jù)中心的衛(wèi)星觀測(cè)到的北極海冰也處于不斷消融的狀態(tài),北極航線的全面開(kāi)通成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。北冰洋是聯(lián)系太平洋和大西洋的快捷通道,與傳統(tǒng)航線相比,北極航線將大大縮短亞洲、歐洲和美洲的海上距離,降低航運(yùn)成本,促進(jìn)了這三大地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,具有極大的經(jīng)濟(jì)和航運(yùn)價(jià)值。然而由于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)備、法規(guī)制度的不完善和缺乏航行經(jīng)驗(yàn),北極航線還存在一定的航行危險(xiǎn)。因此北極航線較巴拿馬運(yùn)河、蘇伊士運(yùn)河等傳統(tǒng)航線相比,判斷出哪一個(gè)是商業(yè)航行的更好選擇則是一個(gè)重要問(wèn)題。故本文以北極航線為研究對(duì)象,對(duì)其航行經(jīng)濟(jì)性進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)的分析并預(yù)測(cè)了其運(yùn)輸分擔(dān)率。為達(dá)到研究目的,首先介紹了本文的研究背景和意義,總結(jié)了北極航線的國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,并對(duì)本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容和框架進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單描述。其次對(duì)北極航線自然現(xiàn)狀、航行情況和通航前景狀進(jìn)行了綜述,確定北極航線的通航可行性,為文章奠定研究基礎(chǔ)。然后介紹了船舶經(jīng)濟(jì)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)和航線航行成本的構(gòu)成,并且對(duì)影響北極航線航行經(jīng)濟(jì)性的成本參數(shù)進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析,為后續(xù)研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。之后以上海港到鹿特丹港為例,建立定量化計(jì)算的數(shù)學(xué)模型,運(yùn)用成本分析法對(duì)比了通航期內(nèi)每條航線的成本構(gòu)成,發(fā)現(xiàn)燃油費(fèi)、破冰引航費(fèi)和船舶造價(jià)是目前影響北極航線航行經(jīng)濟(jì)性的主要因素,并對(duì)這三個(gè)因素進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單的分析。最后在前述內(nèi)容所得的成本結(jié)果基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷的方式收集相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),并建立了離散選擇模型——Logit模型,最終求出傳統(tǒng)航線和北極航線在海上運(yùn)輸?shù)姆謸?dān)率,體現(xiàn)了北極航線的重要性,認(rèn)為其在貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)的分擔(dān)率將越來(lái)越大。本文以北極航線航行經(jīng)濟(jì)性為中心進(jìn)行了研究,在一定程度上為航運(yùn)企業(yè)評(píng)估北極航線提供了有用的參考。
[Abstract]:At present, the global climate is continuously warming, the Arctic sea ice observed by the ice and snow data center satellite is also in the state of melting, and the full opening of the Arctic route becomes a reality. The Arctic Ocean is a fast passage connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. Compared with traditional routes, Arctic routes will greatly shorten the sea distance between Asia, Europe and the Americas, reduce shipping costs, and promote the economic development of these three major regions. It has great economic and shipping value. However, because of the imperfection of basic equipment, regulations and regulations, and lack of navigation experience, Arctic route still has certain navigation danger. So it is important to determine which route is a better choice than the Panama Canal, Suez Canal and other traditional routes. Therefore, this paper takes the Arctic route as the research object, carries on the corresponding analysis to its navigation economy and forecasts its transportation share rate. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, the research background and significance of this paper are introduced, and the research status of Arctic routes at home and abroad is summarized, and the research content and framework of this paper are briefly described. Secondly, the natural status, navigation situation and navigation prospect of the Arctic route are summarized, and the feasibility of the Arctic route is determined, which lays a foundation for the research. Then it introduces the evaluation index of ship economy and the composition of route navigation cost, and analyzes the cost parameters which affect the navigation economy of Arctic route in detail, which lays a theoretical foundation for further research. Then the above seaport to Rotterdam port as an example, set up the mathematical model of quantitative calculation, used cost analysis method to compare the cost composition of each route during the navigation period, found that the fuel cost, The ice-breaking pilotage fee and the ship cost are the main factors affecting the navigation economy of the Arctic route at present, and the three factors are simply analyzed. Finally, on the basis of the cost results obtained from the above contents, the relevant data are collected by questionnaire, and the discrete selection model, Logit model, is established to calculate the share rate of the traditional route and the Arctic route in sea transportation. This reflects the importance of Arctic routes, which are expected to share more and more in the freight market. In this paper, the economy of Arctic route navigation is taken as the center, which provides a useful reference for shipping enterprises to evaluate Arctic route to a certain extent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F551;U697.33

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