【摘要】：公共自行車服務(wù)系統(tǒng)在全球的發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)“遍地開花”之勢,尤其在國內(nèi)的發(fā)展速度更為驚人,這主要是因為我國多采用政府主導(dǎo)模式,由政府投入高額的資金來建設(shè)系統(tǒng),同時給予運營商高額的補貼維持經(jīng)營,在社會上也產(chǎn)生了“天價”公共自行車的輿論�；诖吮尘�,本文研究了公共自行車全壽命周期的成本與效益。首先,利用問卷調(diào)查獲得的出行者出行鏈數(shù)據(jù)建立了二項Logit選擇模型,模型結(jié)果表明影響居民選擇包括公共自行車出行鏈的行為主要有五個因素,同時出行者對公共自行車的方便性更敏感、要求更高,通過提高公共自行車站點的覆蓋率能夠有效提高公共自行車的使用量。其次,在樣本數(shù)據(jù)受限的情況下,文章選擇灰色GM(1,1)及其改進模型用于預(yù)測了公共自行車租借量,并利用MATLAB實現(xiàn)模型的計算,通過對模型的檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)改進的GM(1,1)模型中長期預(yù)測效果更好。再次,文章分析了公共自行車服務(wù)系統(tǒng)的全壽命周期的組成,并給出了具有可操作性的易于計算的全壽命周期成本現(xiàn)值的估算模型以及運營階段效益的量化模型。最后,論文計算了西安市公共自行車服務(wù)系統(tǒng)的全壽命周期的成本與效益,計算結(jié)果表明西安市公共自行車服務(wù)系統(tǒng)壽命周期內(nèi)的效益要遠遠高于成本,證實了公共自行車服務(wù)系統(tǒng)的價值所在。
[Abstract]:The development of public bicycle service system in the world shows the trend of "blooming everywhere", especially in China, the speed of development is even more astonishing. This is mainly because our country mostly adopts the government-led mode, and the government invests a high amount of money to build the system. At the same time, high subsidies to operators to maintain the operation, in the community has also produced "sky-high" public bicycle public opinion. Based on this background, this paper studies the cost and benefit of the whole life cycle of public bicycle. First of all, two Logit selection models are established by using the data obtained from the questionnaire survey. The results show that there are five main factors that affect the behavior of residents' choice, including the public bicycle travel chain. At the same time, the travelers are more sensitive to the convenience of the public bicycle, higher requirements, by increasing the coverage of public bicycle stations can effectively improve the use of public bicycles. Secondly, in the case of limited sample data, the grey GM (1 / 1) and its improved model are selected to predict the amount of public bicycle rental, and the calculation of the model is realized by using MATLAB. It is found that the improved GM (1K1) model is more effective in medium and long term prediction by checking the model. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the composition of the whole life cycle of the public bicycle service system, and gives an operational model of estimating the present value of the cost of the whole life cycle and a quantitative model of the benefit of the operation phase. Finally, the paper calculates the cost and benefit of the whole life cycle of the public bicycle service system in Xi'an, and the result shows that the benefit in the life cycle of the public bicycle service system in Xi'an is much higher than the cost. Proved the value of public bicycle service system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.225

【共引文獻】

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