【摘要】：隨著人們生活水平的提高,人均汽車擁有量逐年上升,也引起了很多交通問題,其中最嚴重的就是交通擁堵問題,然而傳統(tǒng)的交通系統(tǒng)管理和交通需求管理已經(jīng)無力緩解,國內(nèi)大多數(shù)學者一致認為智能交通系統(tǒng)(ITS)和先進的出行者信息系統(tǒng)(ATIS)是解決交通擁堵問題的有效途徑之一,而ATIS的核心就是路徑選擇問題,因此,研究路徑選擇問題對于完善ATIS有極大的作用和意義。國內(nèi)外學者對于確定環(huán)境下的路徑選擇問題已經(jīng)有系統(tǒng)和深入的研究,并擁有了一系列的研究成果,而不確定環(huán)境下的路徑選擇研究還是熱點研究問題。期望效用理論是解決不確定環(huán)境下路徑選擇的有效方法,但是效用理論認為人們是完全理性的假設(shè)與現(xiàn)實擇路行為有較大的差距。而前景理論假設(shè)人們是有限理性的,并通過國內(nèi)外學者大量的實證研究證實前景理論可以用來解決不確定環(huán)境下的路徑選擇問題。于是本文通過前景理論來研究不確定環(huán)境下的出行者路徑選擇問題。首先解析了不確定環(huán)境下的路徑選擇問題的分類,并詳細介紹了三種路徑選擇模型的理論方法,之后分析了不確定環(huán)境下路徑選擇問題的研究現(xiàn)狀。然后闡述了前景理論的提出背景、思想框架以及發(fā)展應用,最后分析了前景理論對路徑選擇的適用性。其次考慮出行者對準時到達的可靠性要求并結(jié)合行程時間預算的相關(guān)定義求出了行程時間預算區(qū)間,在此基礎(chǔ)上,將基于行程時間預算的到達時間作為本章模型的兩個參考點,建立了基于出發(fā)時刻的價值函數(shù)模型,然后通過出行者的個人主觀概率確定了決策權(quán)重函數(shù),進而搭建了基于前景理論的出發(fā)時刻和路徑選擇模型。通過對通勤者的SP調(diào)查統(tǒng)計得到了不同類型的通勤者的到達時間分布,并結(jié)合一個算例進行了驗證。最后通過出行者基于前景理論的決策過程建立了基于前景理論的動態(tài)路徑選擇模型,進而提出了該動態(tài)模型的算法,并通過一個算例進行驗證,然后再通過一個算例對基于效用理論和前景理論的路徑選擇模型進行比較得出前景理論比效用理論能夠更加準確地描述出行者在不確定性條件下的出行決策行為。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's living standards, the per capita car ownership has increased year by year, which has also caused many traffic problems, the most serious of which is the traffic congestion problem. However, the traditional traffic system management and traffic demand management have been unable to alleviate. Most domestic scholars agree that the intelligent transportation system (ITS) and the advanced traveler information system (ATIS) are one of the effective ways to solve the traffic congestion problem, and the core of ATIS is the path selection problem. The study of path selection is of great importance to the improvement of ATIS. Scholars at home and abroad have made systematic and in-depth research on the path selection problem in the deterministic environment, and have a series of research results. However, the research on path selection in uncertain environment is still a hot research issue. The theory of expected utility is an effective method to solve the problem of path choice in uncertain environments. However, the theory of utility holds that there is a big gap between the assumption that people are completely rational and the behavior of road choice in reality. The prospect theory assumes that people are bounded rational, and through a large number of empirical studies at home and abroad, the prospect theory can be used to solve the path selection problem in uncertain environment. So this paper studies the path selection problem in uncertain environment by foreground theory. Firstly, the classification of path selection problems in uncertain environment is analyzed, and the theoretical methods of three kinds of path selection models are introduced in detail, and then the current research situation of path selection problems in uncertain environments is analyzed. Then, the background, the frame of thought and the development and application of foreground theory are introduced. Finally, the applicability of foreground theory to path selection is analyzed. Secondly, considering the reliability requirements of travelers to arrive on time and combining with the definition of travel time budget, the travel time budget interval is obtained. On this basis, the arrival time based on travel time budget is regarded as the two reference points of this chapter model. The value function model based on the departure time is established, and then the decision weight function is determined by the individual subjective probability of the traveler, and the starting time and path selection model based on the foreground theory is built. Through the SP survey of commuters, the arrival time distribution of different types of commuters is obtained and verified by an example. Finally, the dynamic path selection model based on foreground theory is established through the decision process of traveler based on foreground theory, and the algorithm of the dynamic model is put forward, which is verified by an example. Then a numerical example is given to compare the path selection model based on utility theory and prospect theory. It is concluded that foreground theory is more accurate than utility theory in describing travelers' travel decision behavior under uncertain conditions.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491

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本文編號：2370695