【摘要】：隨著自然和社會(huì)矛盾的突出,人為或自然的突發(fā)性事件頻頻發(fā)生。大型災(zāi)難事件發(fā)生時(shí),為保障人員安全,需組織大規(guī)模的區(qū)域性疏散,將危險(xiǎn)區(qū)域人口撤離到安全地帶。區(qū)域中其中一部分人駕駛私人機(jī)動(dòng)車離開(kāi),導(dǎo)致道路網(wǎng)交通需求短時(shí)劇增,影響疏散效率。在我國(guó),高比例的低行動(dòng)力人群無(wú)可靠交通工具撤離,具有高度脆弱性,采用公交車輛進(jìn)行疏散可有效提高疏散效率。本文針對(duì)運(yùn)用公交車輛進(jìn)行應(yīng)急疏散時(shí)的集結(jié)點(diǎn)選址和公交車輛行駛路徑規(guī)劃問(wèn)題展開(kāi)研究,建立模型并設(shè)計(jì)了相應(yīng)算法,旨在為基于公交車輛的大規(guī)模區(qū)域性應(yīng)急疏散規(guī)劃提供一定的參考。首先,分析公交車輛疏散集結(jié)點(diǎn)設(shè)置的主要影響因素,包括突發(fā)事件特性和疏散區(qū)域特性兩方面,以及集結(jié)點(diǎn)選址所需的信息,包括突發(fā)事件信息、疏散區(qū)域特性信息和疏散需求信息。根據(jù)以往研究成果,假設(shè)備選集結(jié)點(diǎn)不會(huì)被災(zāi)難破壞,且容量和位置已知,每個(gè)疏散小區(qū)只被一個(gè)集結(jié)點(diǎn)服務(wù),疏散人員按最短路徑步行到達(dá)集結(jié)點(diǎn),以總步行距離最短為主要目標(biāo),穿越干路次數(shù)最少為次要目標(biāo),以容量限制、最大步行距離等為約束條件,建立集結(jié)點(diǎn)選址的雙目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型,運(yùn)用遺傳算法對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行求解,在帕累托最優(yōu)解中尋找較優(yōu)方案。其次,對(duì)常態(tài)交通分配模型進(jìn)行分析,認(rèn)為應(yīng)急疏散時(shí)公交車輛在路網(wǎng)上的分配應(yīng)為系統(tǒng)最優(yōu)狀態(tài)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,考慮集結(jié)點(diǎn)人群的到達(dá)隨時(shí)間變化的特性,將疏散時(shí)間劃分為若干個(gè)相等的時(shí)段,以公交行駛總距離最短為目標(biāo)建立公交車輛疏散路徑的線性規(guī)劃模型,采用原始對(duì)偶內(nèi)點(diǎn)法進(jìn)行求解,有效減少了迭代次數(shù),提高了求解效率。最后,以寧波市北侖區(qū)為例,假設(shè)在發(fā)生臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害前對(duì)該區(qū)域內(nèi)的居民進(jìn)行疏散,應(yīng)用所建模型進(jìn)行實(shí)例驗(yàn)證,制定了公交車輛疏散方案,提出一系列應(yīng)急交通管理措施。研究結(jié)果表明所建模型能夠?yàn)楣卉囕v疏散的應(yīng)急預(yù)案規(guī)劃提供一定的理論依據(jù)和技術(shù)支持。
[Abstract]:With the prominent contradiction between nature and society, man-made or natural sudden events occur frequently. In order to ensure the safety of personnel, large-scale regional evacuation should be organized to evacuate the population in dangerous areas to safety. Some of the people in the area drive private motor vehicles, which results in a sudden increase in the demand for road network traffic, which affects the efficiency of evacuation. In our country, a high proportion of people with low mobility have no reliable means of transportation evacuation and have a high vulnerability. Using public transport vehicles to evacuate can effectively improve the efficiency of evacuation. In this paper, we study the location of assembly point and the route planning of public transport vehicle in emergency evacuation, establish the model and design the corresponding algorithm. The purpose is to provide a certain reference for the large-scale regional emergency evacuation planning based on public transport vehicles. First of all, it analyzes the main factors that affect the setting of public transport vehicle evacuation assembly point, including emergency characteristics and evacuation regional characteristics, as well as the information needed for assembly site selection, including emergency information. Evacuation area characteristic information and evacuation requirement information. According to the previous research results, the node of false equipment selection will not be destroyed by disaster, and the capacity and location are known. Each evacuation area is served by only one assembly point, and the evacuees walk to the assembly point according to the shortest path. Taking the shortest walking distance as the main goal, the least number of times of crossing the trunk road as the secondary target, and taking the capacity limit and the maximum walking distance as the constraint conditions, the two-objective optimization model for the location of the assembly point is established. Genetic algorithm is used to solve the model and to find a better solution in the Pareto optimal solution. Secondly, the normal traffic assignment model is analyzed, and it is considered that the allocation of public transport vehicles in the road network should be the optimal state of the system during emergency evacuation. On the basis of this, considering the characteristic of the crowd arriving at the assembly point with time, the evacuation time is divided into several equal periods, and the linear programming model of the evacuation path of the bus is established with the aim of the shortest total distance of the public transport. The original dual interior point method is used to solve the problem, which effectively reduces the number of iterations and improves the efficiency. Finally, taking Beilun District of Ningbo City as an example, assuming that the residents in the area were evacuated before the typhoon disaster, and applying the established model to verify the example, the evacuation scheme of public transport vehicles was formulated, and a series of emergency traffic management measures were put forward. The results show that the model can provide some theoretical basis and technical support for emergency planning of bus evacuation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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