【摘要】：城市靜態(tài)交通的主要任務(wù)就是解決停車難的問(wèn)題,通過(guò)城市停車規(guī)劃,合理引導(dǎo)停車需求。城市停車需求預(yù)測(cè)是對(duì)城市未來(lái)停車規(guī)模的預(yù)測(cè),通過(guò)考慮城市用地、道路交通等因素的影響,對(duì)城市停車現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,掌握其內(nèi)在的發(fā)展規(guī)律,并綜合運(yùn)用科學(xué)的方法合理預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)停車規(guī)模,力求未來(lái)停車需求規(guī)模合理、均勻分布、結(jié)構(gòu)合理,使停車設(shè)施建設(shè)規(guī)模既能滿足當(dāng)下城市停車需求,又為未來(lái)停車設(shè)施建設(shè)提供充足的空間。實(shí)現(xiàn)城市停車需求預(yù)測(cè)科學(xué)、合理,具有深遠(yuǎn)的意義。本文以城市停車需求為研究對(duì)象,按照問(wèn)題提出、理論分析、停車調(diào)查、模型構(gòu)建和模型應(yīng)用的思路,首先對(duì)我國(guó)城市停車中出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題進(jìn)行分析,通過(guò)分析國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究成果以及發(fā)展趨勢(shì),本文在順應(yīng)目前發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合考慮研究區(qū)域的實(shí)際,確定論文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容及研究的技術(shù)路線。通過(guò)理論分析,對(duì)城市停車設(shè)施和城市停車需求進(jìn)行分析界定。分別從宏觀和微觀角度分析影響停車需求的因素,為后面模型參數(shù)選取和模型構(gòu)建提供依據(jù)。確定停車調(diào)查內(nèi)容及實(shí)施方案,并針對(duì)停車設(shè)施供給調(diào)查和停車特征調(diào)查分別設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查方法及調(diào)查表;對(duì)選取的特性指標(biāo)停車周轉(zhuǎn)率、泊位利用率、高峰停放指數(shù)進(jìn)行界定和分析。通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外常用的停車需求預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行分析和對(duì)比,根據(jù)停車需求的分類及特性,分別構(gòu)建城市基本停車需求預(yù)測(cè)模型和城市社會(huì)停車需求預(yù)測(cè)模型,并給出各個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)模型的參數(shù)取值方法。以吉林省通化市停車需求預(yù)測(cè)為例,通過(guò)對(duì)通化市停車調(diào)查,對(duì)停車供給總體情況、停車片區(qū)分布以及停車?yán)锰匦灾笜?biāo)進(jìn)行分析,掌握通化市停車發(fā)展特點(diǎn)以及模型參數(shù)取值,從而利用停車預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)基本停車需求和社會(huì)停車需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)停車調(diào)查實(shí)施方案和停車需求預(yù)測(cè)模型的適用性進(jìn)行實(shí)際論證。應(yīng)用過(guò)程中,根據(jù)遇到的問(wèn)題進(jìn)一步調(diào)整、優(yōu)化模型,以使模型更加合理。
[Abstract]:The main task of urban static traffic is to solve the problem of parking difficulty and reasonably guide parking demand through urban parking planning. The forecast of urban parking demand is the prediction of the future parking scale of the city. By considering the influence of urban land use, road traffic and other factors, the present situation of urban parking is analyzed, and the inherent development law is mastered. The scale of parking demand is reasonable, even distribution and structure is reasonable, so that the scale of parking facilities can meet the current parking demand. It also provides sufficient space for the construction of parking facilities in the future. The realization of urban parking demand prediction is scientific, reasonable and has far-reaching significance. This article takes the urban parking demand as the research object, puts forward according to the question, the theory analysis, the parking survey, the model construction and the model application train of thought, first carries on the analysis to our country city parking question which appears in the city parking. By analyzing the research results and development trends of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper, on the basis of conforming to the current development trend, synthetically considers the reality of the research area, and determines the main research contents and the technical route of the research. Through theoretical analysis, the urban parking facilities and parking requirements are analyzed and defined. The factors affecting parking demand are analyzed from macro and micro angles respectively, which provide the basis for model parameter selection and model construction. To determine the content and implementation plan of parking survey, and to design investigation methods and questionnaires for parking facilities supply survey and parking characteristic survey, and to select characteristic indicators, parking turnover rate, berth utilization ratio, parking facilities, parking facilities and parking facilities. Peak parking index is defined and analyzed. Based on the analysis and comparison of the commonly used parking demand forecasting models at home and abroad, according to the classification and characteristics of parking demand, the basic parking demand forecasting model and the urban social parking demand forecasting model are constructed respectively. The parameter selection method of each prediction model is also given. Taking the forecast of parking demand in Tonghua City of Jilin Province as an example, through the investigation of parking in Tonghua City, the general situation of parking supply, the distribution of parking area and the characteristic index of parking utilization are analyzed. In order to predict the basic parking demand and the social parking demand, we can master the characteristics of the parking development in Tonghua City and select the parameters of the model, so as to forecast the basic parking demand and the social parking demand. The application scheme of parking survey and the applicability of parking demand prediction model are demonstrated. In the process of application, the model is further adjusted according to the problems encountered and the model is optimized to make the model more reasonable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491.7

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