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歷史街區(qū)慢行交通分擔(dān)量預(yù)測(cè)研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-10-15 08:40
【摘要】:作為一方文化、一座城市精神文明的象征,歷史街區(qū)如一張名片向世人展現(xiàn)出一座城市、一方水土最具特色的傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)貌。然而,隨著城市發(fā)展進(jìn)程的不斷提速,歷史街區(qū)的交通問(wèn)題逐漸成為限制其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的瓶頸。歷史街區(qū)在承擔(dān)現(xiàn)代化城市的商業(yè)、生活、娛樂(lè)功能時(shí),日益增長(zhǎng)的機(jī)動(dòng)車出行需求與歷史街區(qū)保護(hù)之間的矛盾日漸突出。具有靈活、便捷優(yōu)點(diǎn)的慢行交通逐漸成為街區(qū)內(nèi)部出行活動(dòng)的主要方式,合理的慢行交通規(guī)劃與組織成為解決出行需求與街區(qū)保護(hù)之間矛盾的有效途徑。因此,慢行交通的規(guī)劃工作在歷史街區(qū)的交通規(guī)劃和建設(shè)中顯得尤為重要。首先,本文對(duì)鄭州、開封、洛陽(yáng)等地的歷史街區(qū)進(jìn)行了實(shí)地調(diào)研,研究了歷史街區(qū)交通的基本問(wèn)題和基本特征,分析了歷史街區(qū)未來(lái)出行方式構(gòu)成的發(fā)展方向,論證了在歷史街區(qū)未來(lái)的交通系統(tǒng)中慢行交通所扮演的重要角色和發(fā)展的大致趨勢(shì)。其次,論文從出行者心理分析和出行決策的角度探討了影響出行方式選擇的主要因素,建立了基于出行方式顧客滿意度的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型。通過(guò)測(cè)量變量來(lái)確定潛變量與主觀決策之間的關(guān)系,將各種主觀的影響因素進(jìn)行了客觀的量化和分析。最終通過(guò)計(jì)算各個(gè)變量之間的路徑系數(shù)得到了各要素對(duì)不同出行方式選擇影響的權(quán)重,避免了對(duì)影響因素評(píng)價(jià)的主觀性。最后,引入廣義費(fèi)用的概念對(duì)出行方式選擇的各種影響因素進(jìn)行統(tǒng)一量化,并對(duì)各種出行方式的廣義成本進(jìn)行了度量,建立了基于廣義利潤(rùn)最大化的歷史街區(qū)出行方式動(dòng)態(tài)博弈模型。最終以書院街歷史街區(qū)為例對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證,得出了街區(qū)內(nèi)部慢行出行的最優(yōu)分擔(dān)量,并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析,給出了歷史街區(qū)慢行交通發(fā)展的建議和方向。
[Abstract]:As a symbol of culture and spiritual civilization of a city, the historic block shows the world a city and the most characteristic traditional style of water and soil. However, with the increasing speed of urban development, the traffic problem of historic blocks has gradually become the bottleneck of its economic development. The contradiction between the increasing demand for motor vehicle travel and the protection of historic blocks is becoming more and more prominent when the historic block undertakes the functions of commerce, life and entertainment in modern cities. Slow traffic with the advantages of flexibility and convenience has gradually become the main way of travel activities within the block. Reasonable slow traffic planning and organization is an effective way to solve the contradiction between travel demand and block protection. Therefore, the planning of slow-moving traffic is particularly important in the traffic planning and construction of historical blocks. First of all, this paper has carried on the field investigation to the historical district of Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Luoyang and so on, has studied the basic problem and the basic characteristic of the historical district traffic, has analyzed the development direction of the future travel mode constitution of the historical district. This paper demonstrates the important role and development trend of slow traffic in the future traffic system of historic blocks. Secondly, the paper discusses the main factors that affect the choice of travel mode from the perspective of travelers' psychological analysis and travel decision, and establishes a structural equation model based on the customer satisfaction of travel mode. By measuring variables to determine the relationship between latent variables and subjective decision-making, various subjective influencing factors are objectively quantified and analyzed. Finally, by calculating the path coefficients among the variables, the weight of the factors' influence on the choice of different travel modes is obtained, and the subjectivity of the evaluation of the influencing factors is avoided. Finally, the concept of generalized cost is introduced to quantify the factors affecting the choice of travel modes, and the generalized cost of various travel modes is measured. Based on the generalized profit maximization, a dynamic game model of travel mode in historical blocks is established. Finally, taking the historical block of Academy Street as an example, the model is verified, the optimal share of slow travel within the block is obtained, and the forecast results are analyzed, and the suggestions and direction of slow traffic development in historical block are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2015
【分類號(hào)】:U491

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