【摘要】：隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,生活節(jié)奏逐漸加快,出行者對(duì)于準(zhǔn)確估計(jì)路徑行程時(shí)間及其波動(dòng)性的要求越來(lái)越高。同樣,合理分析路徑行程時(shí)間及其可靠性在實(shí)際的交通控制管理過(guò)程中體現(xiàn)的作用也愈發(fā)明顯。本文首先針對(duì)城市道路網(wǎng)絡(luò)中路徑行程時(shí)間的預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行了分析,對(duì)影響路徑行程時(shí)間的因素進(jìn)行研究后,從無(wú)事故狀態(tài)下行程時(shí)間和隨機(jī)事故影響下行駛延誤兩個(gè)角度對(duì)路徑行程時(shí)間進(jìn)行建模計(jì)算。根據(jù)無(wú)事故影響下城市交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中間斷流的交通特性,文中通過(guò)對(duì)流量函數(shù)進(jìn)行修正和分狀態(tài)對(duì)參數(shù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)定,提出了分狀態(tài)BPR修正模型來(lái)進(jìn)行城市交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的路徑行程時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)。對(duì)城市交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中交通事故發(fā)生規(guī)律及影響進(jìn)行分析后,使用概率論方法計(jì)算延誤的期望值。由此得到路徑行程時(shí)間的計(jì)算模型。在實(shí)際調(diào)查的基礎(chǔ)上,建立仿真環(huán)境對(duì)所建模型精確度進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。在總結(jié)路徑行程時(shí)間可靠性研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文明確了路徑行程時(shí)間可靠性的概念,建立路徑行程時(shí)間可靠性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,提出了各項(xiàng)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)定量化計(jì)算模型。最后通過(guò)建立算例對(duì)各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)計(jì)算方法和模型的合理性進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證,證明了行程時(shí)間可靠性指標(biāo)體系可以對(duì)各條路徑行程時(shí)間可靠性變化情況進(jìn)行分析,為出行者出行和道路管理提供全方面決策輔助信息。
[Abstract]:With the development of social economy, the rhythm of life is quickening gradually, and the demand for accurate estimation of travel time and its fluctuation is becoming higher and higher. Similarly, the rational analysis of path travel time and its reliability plays an important role in the actual traffic control management. In this paper, the prediction of route travel time in urban road network is analyzed, and the factors influencing the path travel time are studied. The path travel time is modeled and calculated from two angles: the travel time under the condition of no accident and the travel delay under the influence of random accident. According to the traffic characteristics of the middle cut off of urban traffic network without accident, the parameters are calibrated by modifying the flow function and dividing the state. In this paper, a hierarchical BPR correction model is proposed to predict the path travel time in urban transportation networks. After analyzing the regularity and influence of traffic accidents in urban traffic network, the expected value of delay is calculated by probability theory. The calculation model of path travel time is obtained. Based on the actual investigation, the simulation environment is established to test the accuracy of the model. On the basis of summarizing the research of path travel time reliability, this paper defines the concept of path travel time reliability, establishes the evaluation index system of path travel time reliability, and puts forward the quantitative calculation model of each evaluation index. Finally, the rationality of each index calculation method and model is verified by establishing an example, and it is proved that the reliability index system of travel time can analyze the reliability change of each path. To provide all aspects of decision support information for travelers and road management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張揚(yáng);何承;張yN;顧承華;馬偉民;林益平;;上海市道路交通狀態(tài)指數(shù)簡(jiǎn)介及應(yīng)用案例[J];交通與運(yùn)輸;2016年03期

2 林徐勛;倪安寧;張春勤;;基于隨機(jī)松弛時(shí)間的行程時(shí)間可靠性計(jì)算模型[J];科學(xué)技術(shù)與工程;2015年08期

3 胡昌君;陳文斌;;靜態(tài)多路徑交通分配模型綜述[J];現(xiàn)代交通技術(shù);2014年01期

4 孫小菲;陳旭梅;劉文峰;王瑩;汪林;;高速公路行程時(shí)間可靠性評(píng)價(jià)體系及指標(biāo)閾值標(biāo)定[J];交通信息與安全;2014年01期

5 張璽;劉海旭;蒲云;;交通事件影響下的路徑行程時(shí)間變化分析[J];西南交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2013年05期

6 陳玲娟;劉海旭;蒲云;;交通事故持續(xù)期內(nèi)行程時(shí)間的可靠性研究[J];西南交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2013年02期

7 崔洪軍;申曉靜;趙述捷;孫喜欣;;基于交通事故間距分布特征的事故黑點(diǎn)鑒定新方法[J];武漢理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2012年02期

8 況愛(ài)武;黃中祥;況群;;隨機(jī)需求道路網(wǎng)絡(luò)出行時(shí)間可靠性評(píng)估方法[J];西南交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2011年05期

9 胡婷;于雷;趙娜樂(lè);;動(dòng)態(tài)交通分配理論研究綜述[J];交通標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化;2010年09期

10 姜桂艷;李繼偉;張春勤;;城市主干路路段行程時(shí)間估計(jì)的BPR修正模型[J];西南交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2010年01期

，

本文編號(hào)：2257563