【摘要】：交通需求是一種派生(Derived Need)需求。人們的交通產(chǎn)生源于在城市中不同功能分區(qū)進(jìn)行工作、學(xué)習(xí)、社會交往、購物等社會經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的需求,因此需要從交通需求的本源角度即居民活動需求角度來探尋交通問題的特性及其形成機(jī)理。在交通系統(tǒng)中,用來測度人們進(jìn)行日常出行活動是否舒適、安全、便捷、準(zhǔn)時(shí)、經(jīng)濟(jì)地到達(dá)目的地,可以采用可達(dá)性這一測度指標(biāo)。傳統(tǒng)的可達(dá)性是指由土地利用一交通系統(tǒng)所決定的、人/貨物通過一定的交通方式到達(dá)目的地或參與活動的方便程度等。主要是從土地使用、交通系統(tǒng)、時(shí)間限制、個人等四個方面對可達(dá)性有不同理解。人是城市的主體,以個體為研究對象分析可達(dá)性的內(nèi)涵尤為重要。對個人可達(dá)性的研究,傳統(tǒng)方法是從空間角度對個體活動進(jìn)行評價(jià),如累積機(jī)會法、距離法等。而現(xiàn)階段的研究是基于時(shí)間地理學(xué)的理論框架,從時(shí)空雙重條件約束下個體的可達(dá)性。而以上方法都是從供給的角度測度可達(dá)性。可達(dá)性的概念直接體現(xiàn)居民通過出行而實(shí)現(xiàn)個體生活目的的難易程度。從活動需求的角度分析人們的實(shí)際和潛在出行需求,才能更好地理解和提供交通服務(wù)。為此,本文提出了一種基于活動需求的交通可達(dá)性測度新方法。首先,本文以個體為研究對象,從居民個體的活動需求角度出發(fā),提出了基于活動需求的個體可達(dá)性定義。其次,分析了居民的廣義出行成本,是本文基于活動需求的個體可達(dá)性的重要因素。個體可達(dá)性的關(guān)鍵因素在于個體的感知,因此本文考慮個體感知的廣義出行成本,主要由使用成本、時(shí)間成本和疲勞成本(舒適成本和心情愉悅成本)等三部分構(gòu)成。再次,基于活動需求的個體可達(dá)性的模型構(gòu)建,是源于隨機(jī)效用理論的基于效用的可達(dá)性測度方法,主要考慮個體對方式選擇、目的地選擇以及活動類型選擇而產(chǎn)生不同的效用,從而構(gòu)建由三個MNL模型而形成的嵌套Logit模型。模型考慮了個體特性、家庭特性以及出行特性等影響因素,并將考慮個體感知的廣義出行成本這一重要影響因素,加入目的地選擇層模型標(biāo)定中。其中需要借助Logsum變量連接相鄰層。最后,在給出算例分析的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建居民日常選擇活動類型的不同維度可達(dá)性分析方法,構(gòu)建不同維度的可達(dá)性分析方法。分析小區(qū)居民不同維度的平均可達(dá)性、個體不同活動需求維度的可達(dá)性以及不同群體的不同活動需求可達(dá)性并繪制不同周活動需求可達(dá)性的雷達(dá)圖。結(jié)果顯示居民的日常活動需求中,對于通勤性活動需求的可達(dá)性較高,生活性活動需求可達(dá)性適中,全日制工作者對于通勤性活動需求可達(dá)性要求較高。
[Abstract]:Traffic demand is a derivative of (Derived Need) requirements. People's traffic arises from the need for social and economic activities such as work, study, social interaction, shopping, etc., in different functional districts of the city. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the characteristics and formation mechanism of traffic problems from the perspective of the origin of traffic demand, that is, residents' activity demand. In the transportation system, it can be used to measure whether people are comfortable, safe, convenient, punctual and economical to reach their destination. Traditional accessibility refers to the degree of convenience for people / goods to reach their destination or participate in activities through a certain mode of transportation, which is determined by a land use and transportation system. Mainly from four aspects of land use, transportation system, time constraints, individuals, there are different understandings of accessibility. Man is the main body of the city, and it is very important to analyze the connotation of accessibility with individual as the object of study. In the study of individual accessibility, the traditional method is to evaluate individual activities from the perspective of space, such as cumulative opportunity method, distance method and so on. The present research is based on the theoretical framework of time geography, from the constraints of time and space dual conditions of individual accessibility. The above methods measure reachability from the angle of supply. The concept of reachability directly reflects the degree of difficulty for residents to achieve their personal purpose through travel. Only by analyzing the actual and potential travel demand of people from the point of view of activity demand can we better understand and provide transportation services. In this paper, a new method of traffic reachability measurement based on activity requirement is proposed. Firstly, this paper takes the individual as the research object and puts forward the definition of individual reachability based on the activity demand of the resident individual. Secondly, the generalized travel cost is analyzed, which is an important factor of individual accessibility based on activity demand. The key factor of individual accessibility is individual perception. Therefore, the generalized travel cost of individual perception is mainly composed of three parts: use cost, time cost and fatigue cost (comfort cost and mood pleasure cost). Thirdly, the model of individual reachability based on activity demand is a method of measurement of reachability based on utility based on stochastic utility theory, which mainly considers the choice of individual pairs. The choice of destination and the choice of activity type produce different utility, so that the nested Logit model formed by three MNL models is constructed. The model takes into account the influence factors such as individual characteristics, family characteristics and travel characteristics, and takes into account the generalized travel cost of individual perception, which is an important factor to be added to the calibration of the destination selection layer model. The Logsum variable is needed to connect the adjacent layers. Finally, on the basis of the example analysis, the paper constructs different dimension accessibility analysis method of residents' daily choice activity type, and constructs different dimension reachability analysis method. The average reachability of different dimensions of community residents, the reachability of different activity demand dimensions of individuals and the reachability of different groups of different activity requirements are analyzed and the radar map of different cycle activity demand reachability is drawn. The results showed that the demand for commuting activities was higher, the demand for living activities was moderate, and the demand of full-time workers for commuting activities was higher.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491

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