高速公路交通事故起數(shù)預(yù)測方法研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-08 16:09
【摘要】：近年來我國高速公路的快速發(fā)展,大力促進(jìn)了我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會進(jìn)步。但與此同時(shí),我國高速公路居高不下的交通事故起數(shù)以及它的高傷亡率也給社會和人民造成了巨大損失。識別高速公路交通事故的突出誘導(dǎo)因素,分析高速公路交通事故起數(shù)與道路條件和交通條件等影響因素之間的關(guān)系,可以深入剖析高速公路交通事故的形成機(jī)理,從而可以及時(shí)地、有針對性地采取相應(yīng)的預(yù)防對策和改善措施,最終達(dá)到減少高速公路交通事故起數(shù)、提高高速公路整體安全性的目的。本文結(jié)合實(shí)際的科研項(xiàng)目,對高速公路交通事故起數(shù)預(yù)測方法進(jìn)行了深入研究。從人、車輛、道路和環(huán)境四個(gè)方面系統(tǒng)地分析高速公路交通事故的影響因素,然后針對某高速公路(K22+690~K72+690),采集其特定時(shí)段內(nèi)的事故數(shù)據(jù)、交通流量數(shù)據(jù)和道路線形數(shù)據(jù),選取用于構(gòu)建交通事故起數(shù)預(yù)測模型的潛在變量。在總結(jié)和歸納現(xiàn)有研究成果的前提下,構(gòu)建了高速公路交通事故起數(shù)預(yù)測模型的理論體系。分別采用負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型、廣義負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型、隨機(jī)效應(yīng)負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型和零堆積負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型構(gòu)建高速公路交通事故起數(shù)預(yù)測模型,分析高速公路交通事故起數(shù)與道路條件和交通條件之間的關(guān)系,并從模型的擬合優(yōu)度檢驗(yàn)和預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性檢驗(yàn)兩個(gè)方面,選取相應(yīng)的檢驗(yàn)指標(biāo),對比分析廣義負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型、隨機(jī)效應(yīng)負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型和零堆積負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型與負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型的優(yōu)劣,然后采用彈性分析的方法,定量分析顯著影響因素對高速公路交通事故起數(shù)的影響程度。最后,針對特定的研究對象某高速公路(K22+690~K72+690),從道路條件和交通條件兩個(gè)方面選取候選自變量,根據(jù)路段劃分方法的不同,分別從定長法和不定長法兩個(gè)角度,對所建立的交通事故起數(shù)預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證性分析研究。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of expressway in China has greatly promoted the economic development and social progress of our country. But at the same time, the high number of traffic accidents and its high casualty rate have caused great losses to the society and people. Identifying the prominent inducing factors of expressway traffic accidents and analyzing the relationship between the number of freeway traffic accidents and the influence factors such as road conditions and traffic conditions can deeply analyze the formation mechanism of expressway traffic accidents. In order to reduce the number of traffic accidents and improve the overall safety of freeway, the corresponding preventive measures and improvement measures can be taken in time and pertinently. Combining with the actual scientific research project, this paper makes a deep research on the prediction method of the initial number of expressway traffic accidents. This paper systematically analyzes the influencing factors of expressway traffic accidents from the aspects of people, vehicles, roads and environment, and then collects the accident data, traffic flow data and road alignment data of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690) during a certain period of time. The potential variables used to build the traffic accident initial prediction model are selected. On the premise of summarizing and summarizing the existing research results, the theoretical system of expressway traffic accident starting number prediction model is constructed. Using negative binomial regression model, generalized negative binomial regression model, random effect negative binomial regression model and zero pile negative binomial regression model to construct expressway traffic accident initial prediction model, respectively. This paper analyzes the relationship between the initial number of expressway traffic accidents and road conditions and traffic conditions, and selects the corresponding test indexes from two aspects: the goodness of fit test of the model and the accuracy test of prediction, and analyzes the generalized negative binomial regression model by comparing and analyzing the generalized negative binomial regression model. The random effect negative binomial regression model, the zero pile negative binomial regression model and the negative binomial regression model are used to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of the influence factors on the number of expressway traffic accidents by using the elastic analysis method. Finally, according to the specific research object of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690), the candidate independent variables are selected from two aspects of road condition and traffic condition. The established traffic accident initial prediction model is studied by empirical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.3
本文編號：2172320
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of expressway in China has greatly promoted the economic development and social progress of our country. But at the same time, the high number of traffic accidents and its high casualty rate have caused great losses to the society and people. Identifying the prominent inducing factors of expressway traffic accidents and analyzing the relationship between the number of freeway traffic accidents and the influence factors such as road conditions and traffic conditions can deeply analyze the formation mechanism of expressway traffic accidents. In order to reduce the number of traffic accidents and improve the overall safety of freeway, the corresponding preventive measures and improvement measures can be taken in time and pertinently. Combining with the actual scientific research project, this paper makes a deep research on the prediction method of the initial number of expressway traffic accidents. This paper systematically analyzes the influencing factors of expressway traffic accidents from the aspects of people, vehicles, roads and environment, and then collects the accident data, traffic flow data and road alignment data of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690) during a certain period of time. The potential variables used to build the traffic accident initial prediction model are selected. On the premise of summarizing and summarizing the existing research results, the theoretical system of expressway traffic accident starting number prediction model is constructed. Using negative binomial regression model, generalized negative binomial regression model, random effect negative binomial regression model and zero pile negative binomial regression model to construct expressway traffic accident initial prediction model, respectively. This paper analyzes the relationship between the initial number of expressway traffic accidents and road conditions and traffic conditions, and selects the corresponding test indexes from two aspects: the goodness of fit test of the model and the accuracy test of prediction, and analyzes the generalized negative binomial regression model by comparing and analyzing the generalized negative binomial regression model. The random effect negative binomial regression model, the zero pile negative binomial regression model and the negative binomial regression model are used to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of the influence factors on the number of expressway traffic accidents by using the elastic analysis method. Finally, according to the specific research object of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690), the candidate independent variables are selected from two aspects of road condition and traffic condition. The established traffic accident initial prediction model is studied by empirical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.3
【相似文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條
1 張宏璐;高速公路交通事故起數(shù)預(yù)測方法研究[D];長安大學(xué);2015年
2 徐業(yè)峰;負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型的統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷[D];揚(yáng)州大學(xué);2014年
，本文編號：2172320
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