【摘要】：針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)四階段法在我國(guó)城市群中存在調(diào)查范圍廣、數(shù)據(jù)獲取難的現(xiàn)狀,以山東半島城市群中幾個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與交通聯(lián)系緊密的城市為例,在不進(jìn)行大規(guī)模OD調(diào)查的前提下,通過(guò)端點(diǎn)城市的統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行相關(guān)分析、主成份和因子分析,采用直接建模法進(jìn)行城際客流需求預(yù)測(cè)模型研究。研究結(jié)果表明,影響城際出行量的指標(biāo)是人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),代表了城市區(qū)位勢(shì)能,適用于城際出行預(yù)測(cè)的模型是空間相互作用模型。以空間相互作用模型家族中威爾遜基于最大熵的引力模型為基礎(chǔ),建立了基于區(qū)位勢(shì)能的城市群城際客流需求預(yù)測(cè)模型,根據(jù)樣本城市群中城市之間的出行量進(jìn)行了模型參數(shù)的標(biāo)定和誤差分析。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that the traditional four-stage method has a wide scope of investigation and is difficult to obtain data in the urban agglomeration of our country, taking several cities in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as an example, without carrying out large-scale OD survey, Through the correlation analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis of the endpoint city, the direct modeling method is used to study the intercity passenger demand forecasting model. The results show that the index of intercity travel is population and economy, which represents the potential energy of urban location, and the model suitable for intercity travel prediction is spatial interaction model. Based on Wilson's gravitation model based on maximum entropy in the family of spatial interaction models, a forecast model of intercity passenger flow demand of urban agglomeration is established based on location potential energy. The calibration and error analysis of the model parameters are carried out according to the travel volume between cities in the sample urban agglomeration.
【作者單位】： 山東建筑大學(xué)山東高校重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室道路與交通工程實(shí)驗(yàn)室;山東建筑大學(xué)建筑城規(guī)學(xué)院;
【基金】：“十二五”國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃,項(xiàng)目編號(hào)2012BAJ15B05 國(guó)家留學(xué)基金資助
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491.1

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