本文選題：寒地城市 + 居民出行特征　； 參考：《長安大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：居民的出行方式結(jié)構(gòu)是城市交通需求預(yù)測的重要環(huán)節(jié),而交通需求的模型及預(yù)測研究是未來城市交通行業(yè)研究的重要方向,給建設(shè)項目的決策管理提供重要的定量分析數(shù)據(jù),也是指導(dǎo)政府進(jìn)行相關(guān)政策、規(guī)劃、建設(shè)的有效手段。合理的居民出行方式結(jié)構(gòu)能夠保障交通系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行效率,而寒地城市冬季寒冷氣候條件下,部分交通出行方式的效率降低,并且出現(xiàn)了一系列的交通問題,如道路通行能力降低、車輛運(yùn)行困難增多、非機(jī)動車出行大比例減少、交通事故頻頻發(fā)生等等,情況嚴(yán)重時甚至?xí)䦟?dǎo)致城市交通系統(tǒng)的紊亂和癱瘓,這種狀態(tài)下,居民的出行方式構(gòu)成必然會收到影響。解決寒地城市冬季交通問題的重要思路,是分析研究寒冷條件下居民出行方式選擇問題。本文針對寒地城市冬季居民出行方式劃分的預(yù)測模型展開研究。首先對寒地城市進(jìn)行冬季的居民出行調(diào)查,并與夏季居民出行特征進(jìn)行對比,明確寒冷氣候?qū)用癯鲂蟹绞竭x擇的影響;其次用敏感性分析法分析冬季出行方式劃分預(yù)測模型建立所需的因素,主要包括出行時間、出行費(fèi)用、安全性、舒適性和便利性等影響因素;再次在NL模型的基礎(chǔ)之上建立合理的出行方式劃分模型,虛擬選擇肢為非機(jī)動車出行方式和機(jī)動車出行方式,并分析其參數(shù)估計的方法及檢驗統(tǒng)計量的結(jié)算;最后以吉林市的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),通過軟件SPSS進(jìn)行參數(shù)的標(biāo)定及模型統(tǒng)計量的檢驗,對現(xiàn)狀出行方式進(jìn)行重新分配,并預(yù)測未來年各出行方式的比例。寒冷條件下的城市居民出行方式結(jié)構(gòu),直接影響著冬季人們在城市中出行的效率,合理的方式分擔(dān),可以使冬季寒冷及冰雪條件下的交通問題得到緩解,提高城市冬季交通資源的利用效率,最大限度地發(fā)揮道路系統(tǒng)的的作用及功能,進(jìn)而采取更有效的交通管理策略,最終達(dá)到改善城市交通狀況的目的。
[Abstract]:The travel mode structure of residents is an important part of urban traffic demand prediction, and the model and prediction research of traffic demand is an important direction of urban transportation industry research in the future, which provides important quantitative analysis data for decision management of construction projects. Also is the guidance government carries on the related policy, the plan, the construction effective means. Reasonable travel mode structure can ensure the efficiency of transportation system, while in cold cities, the efficiency of some travel modes is reduced in winter, and there are a series of traffic problems. If the capacity of the road decreases, the operation of vehicles increases, the large proportion of non-motor vehicles travel decreases, traffic accidents occur frequently, and so on, when the situation is serious, it may even lead to the disorder and paralysis of the urban traffic system. In this state, The composition of residents' travel patterns is bound to be affected. An important way to solve the winter traffic problem in cold cities is to analyze and study the choice of residents' travel mode under cold conditions. In this paper, the prediction model of urban residents' travel patterns in winter in cold regions is studied. First, the winter residents travel in cold cities, and compared with summer residents travel characteristics, to determine the impact of cold weather on the choice of residents travel mode; Secondly, the factors needed to establish winter travel mode classification and prediction model are analyzed by sensitivity analysis, including travel time, travel cost, safety, comfort and convenience. Thirdly, on the basis of NL model, a reasonable travel mode partition model is established, and the virtual choice is non-motor vehicle travel mode and motor vehicle travel mode, and the method of parameter estimation and the settlement of test statistics are analyzed. Finally, based on the investigation data of Jilin City, the parameters are calibrated and the model statistics are checked by software SPSS, the current travel mode is redistributed, and the proportion of each trip mode in the future is forecasted. The structure of travel mode of urban residents under cold conditions has a direct impact on the efficiency and reasonable sharing of urban travel in winter, which can alleviate the traffic problems under cold winter and ice and snow conditions. To improve the utilization efficiency of urban traffic resources in winter, to maximize the role and function of the road system, and then to adopt more effective traffic management strategies to improve the urban traffic situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.12

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

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