本文選題：公共交通 + 串車　； 參考：《東南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)》2017年06期

【摘要】：首先結(jié)合車頭時(shí)距不穩(wěn)定性的概念,對(duì)串車現(xiàn)象給出判定依據(jù);分析串車問題產(chǎn)生的6種典型過程,建立串車問題數(shù)學(xué)模型,對(duì)串車發(fā)生的原因進(jìn)行理論分析.然后,以自貢市38路公交線路實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)為例,采用方差分析與回歸分析篩選出7個(gè)串車形成影響因素,并對(duì)其重要性進(jìn)行排序.最后,建立基于徑向基函數(shù)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的串車問題預(yù)測模型,對(duì)未來站的車頭時(shí)距進(jìn)行預(yù)測,并選取自貢市38路公交車的實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行模型驗(yàn)證.在38 000余組數(shù)據(jù)中隨機(jī)選擇300組數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練,對(duì)比30組測試數(shù)據(jù).結(jié)果表明,學(xué)習(xí)得到的預(yù)測值與實(shí)際值偏差10%以內(nèi)的樣本點(diǎn)占90%,結(jié)果良好,證明了所建立的模型具有較好的適用性.
[Abstract]:Firstly, combining the concept of head-length instability, the paper gives the judgment basis for the phenomenon of train string, analyzes the six typical processes of the train string problem, establishes the mathematical model of the train string problem, and makes a theoretical analysis on the cause of the train string problem. Then, taking the actual data of 38 bus routes in Zigong City as an example, seven factors affecting the formation of buses are selected by means of ANOVA and regression analysis, and their importance is ranked. Finally, the prediction model of train string problem based on radial basis function neural network is established to predict the head-length of the future station, and the real-time data of No. 38 bus in Zigong city are selected to verify the model. 300 groups of data were randomly selected for training in more than 38 000 groups of data and 30 groups of test data were compared. The results show that the sample points within 10% of the deviation between the predicted values and the actual values are 90%, and the results are good, which proves that the proposed model has good applicability.
【作者單位】： 東南大學(xué)城市智能交通江蘇省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;東南大學(xué)現(xiàn)代城市交通技術(shù)江蘇高校協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;東南大學(xué)江蘇省物聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)與應(yīng)用協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;東南大學(xué)物聯(lián)網(wǎng)交通應(yīng)用研究中心;
【基金】：國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2016YFB0100906) 國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(61620106002,51308115)
【分類號(hào)】：U491.17

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