本文選題：工程全壽命周期 + 維修管理決策��； 參考：《東南大學》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著大規(guī)模建設項目的逐步完成,設施維護管理研究已經(jīng)成為工程管理領域研究的熱點問題之一。船閘作為大宗貨物水路運輸通道上的關鍵基礎設施,科學的維護管理對系統(tǒng)正常運行、保障航道暢通和促進國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有重要意義。在設施維修決策研究中,壽命過程的維修信息越來越受到重視,然而船閘維修信息中隱含的系統(tǒng)可靠性規(guī)律尚未被挖掘和利用。論文立足于工程全壽命周期,應用復雜系統(tǒng)可靠性理論和維修決策理論,以維修事件數(shù)據(jù)為基礎,借鑒制造業(yè)可靠性分析的思路和方法,研究了船閘壽命過程的可靠性特征和維修管理決策。研究的主要內容包括：(1)基礎理論與研究架構。梳理了全壽命周期管理理論、復雜系統(tǒng)可靠性理論和維修決策理論,分析了工程全壽命周期管理的核心任務,提出了船閘全壽命周期可靠性分析和維修管理決策研究的總體框架。(2)構建了船閘維修信息集成的霍爾三維結構模型。建立了船閘工程系統(tǒng)分解結構(WLEBS),從時間維、結構維和信息維,構建了船閘維修信息集成的霍爾三維結構模型,解決了“維修信息孤島”和可靠性分析數(shù)據(jù)瓶頸的問題。(3)構建了基于事件數(shù)據(jù)的船閘可靠性分析(RABED)模型,并用17座船閘的歷史維修數(shù)據(jù)驗證了模型的實用性。論文突破了可靠性理論在土木工程領域的具體應用,從復雜系統(tǒng)廣義可靠性的視角定義了船閘系統(tǒng)可靠性指標,設計了RABED流程,研究了RABED模型可靠性參數(shù)估計方法,利用故障模式、影響和危害度分析(FMECA)方法和壽命分布模型,深入分析了船閘部件、子系統(tǒng)和系統(tǒng)的可靠性,通過實證研究得到了繁忙河段船閘的可靠性特征,為維修信息的利用提供了一套系統(tǒng)的解決方法,對其他設施壽命周期維修管理亦具有借鑒作用。(4)揭示了船閘壽命周期維修決策變量相互關系的規(guī)律性。采用多元線性回歸分析方法,定量分析得到年中修費用與大修費用、中修部位數(shù)量正相關,與年運營能力指標負相關；中修發(fā)生時間與大修費用負相關,與年運營能力指標正相關。船閘壽命過程中大修、中修與運營能力之間這一關系,類似于人的健康與其勞動能力之間的關系,具有合理的經(jīng)濟學解釋,符合實際情況。(5)構建了船閘壽命周期維修決策框架和優(yōu)化模型,并通過實例驗證了它們在船閘壽命周期管理中的科學性。論文系統(tǒng)研究了船閘維修決策的影響因素,構建了完整的維修決策分析程序；從預期成本與使用性能兩個角度,建立了船閘壽命周期維修決策指標體系；綜合不同的維修模式,以及維修事件發(fā)生時間和維修占用時間等因素的隨機性,構建了船閘系統(tǒng)的蒙特卡羅動態(tài)可靠性仿真模型,以繁忙河段單線船閘的維修結構優(yōu)化為例,解釋了維修決策框架和優(yōu)化模型在船閘壽命周期管理中的具體應用。論文的研究對于拓展復雜系統(tǒng)可靠性理論的應用領域,進一步完善工程全壽命周期管理理論,深入地把握船閘系統(tǒng)的可靠性特征,為管理部門在多變的環(huán)境條件下進行科學合理的維修決策,實現(xiàn)船閘全壽命周期管理目標,具有十分重要的理論與實踐意義。
[Abstract]:With the gradual completion of large-scale construction projects, the research of maintenance and management of facilities has become one of the hot issues in the field of engineering management. As the key infrastructure of the bulk cargo waterway transport channel, the scientific maintenance and management of the ship is of great significance to the normal operation of the system, the smooth passage of the waterway and the promotion of the development of the national economy. The maintenance information of life process has been paid more and more attention in the research of maintenance decision-making. However, the system reliability law implied in the maintenance information of the ship lock has not been excavated and used. The reliability characteristics and maintenance management decision of the ship lock life process are studied. The main contents of the research include: (1) basic theory and research framework. The theory of life cycle management, the reliability theory of complex system and the theory of maintenance decision-making are combed, and the core of the life cycle management of the project is analyzed. The overall framework of the life cycle reliability analysis and maintenance management decision research of the ship lock is proposed. (2) the Holzer three-dimensional structure model of the ship lock maintenance information integration is constructed. The decomposition structure of the ship lock engineering system (WLEBS) is set up, and the three-dimensional structure model of the maintenance information integration of the ship lock is constructed from the time dimension, the structure maintenance information dimension and the information dimension of the ship lock maintenance information. The problem of "maintenance information isolated island" and reliability analysis data bottleneck is solved. (3) the ship lock reliability analysis (RABED) model based on event data is constructed, and the practicability of the model is verified with the historical maintenance data of 17 ship locks. The paper breaks through the application of reliability theory in the field of soil and wood engineering, and can be generalized from the complex system in a broad sense. The reliability index of the ship lock system is defined by the angle of sex, the RABED process is designed, the method of estimating the reliability parameter of the RABED model is studied. The reliability of the ship lock component, the subsystem and the system is analyzed by the failure mode, the influence and hazard analysis (FMECA) and the life distribution model, and the busy river section is obtained through the empirical study. The reliability characteristics of the ship lock provide a systematic solution for the use of maintenance information, and it can also be used for reference for the maintenance and management of other facilities. (4) the regularity of the relationship between the maintenance decision variables of the lifecycle of the ship locks is revealed. The multiple linear regression analysis method is adopted to quantitatively analyze the annual repair cost and overhaul. There is a positive correlation between the amount of the cost and the number of middle repair parts, and the negative correlation with the annual operating capability index; the time of the repair of the middle repair is negatively related to the overhaul cost, and is positively related to the annual operating capability index. The relationship between the repair of the ship lock life process, the relationship between the repair and the operation ability is similar to the relationship between the human health and the labor ability, and has a reasonable economic solution. In accordance with the actual situation. (5) construction of the life cycle maintenance decision-making framework and optimization model of the ship lock are constructed, and the scientific characteristics of them in the life cycle management of the ship lock are verified by an example. The thesis systematically studies the influencing factors of the maintenance decision of the ship lock, and constructs a complete maintenance decision analysis program; from the expected cost and the use performance of two angles. The dynamic reliability simulation model of the ship lock system is constructed, and the maintenance decision of the single line ship sluice in the busy river section is taken as an example, and the maintenance decision is explained. The concrete application of frame and optimization model in the life cycle management of ship lock. The research of this paper will expand the application field of the reliability theory of the complex system, further improve the theory of the life cycle management of the project, grasp the reliability characteristics of the ship lock system, and carry out scientific and reasonable dimension for the management department under the changeable environment conditions. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to repair decision-making and achieve the goal of life cycle management of shiplock.
【學位授予單位】：東南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U641.8

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相關期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：2014332