本文選題：風(fēng)險評估 + 礦山法施工�。� 參考：《福建工程學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：為了對山嶺隧道施工安全風(fēng)險評估進(jìn)行更深入地研究,形成更加完善且適用性強(qiáng)的評估模型。首先利用WBS-RBS風(fēng)險關(guān)聯(lián)矩陣,進(jìn)行考慮風(fēng)險因素和施工步驟耦合的風(fēng)險識別,形成風(fēng)險評估指標(biāo);其次確立了基于指標(biāo)的初步風(fēng)險評估方法;之后建立了基于模糊故障樹理論的專項(xiàng)與總體風(fēng)險評估方法;最后,將建立的模型應(yīng)用于工程實(shí)例。主要研究成果如下:(1)論證了使用模糊故障樹對礦山法施工安全進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評估的合理性。首先闡述了風(fēng)險管理的產(chǎn)生、發(fā)展和山嶺隧道風(fēng)險評估所處的發(fā)展境況,并探討了山嶺隧道風(fēng)險評估研究存在的一些問題;其次對風(fēng)險評估和山嶺隧道施工常用的方法進(jìn)行了梳理歸納,將礦山法作為風(fēng)險評估的依托工法;最后結(jié)合礦山法施工風(fēng)險評估研究存在的問題、風(fēng)險評估方法的特性和礦山法隧道施工特點(diǎn),界定了本文研究方法選用模糊故障樹對礦山法施工進(jìn)行安全風(fēng)險評估。(2)建立了結(jié)合了工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)和風(fēng)險分解結(jié)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險識別矩陣,來識別礦山法施工存在的風(fēng)險。通過礦山法的施工特點(diǎn),采用工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)將隧道施工工序進(jìn)行分解;利用風(fēng)險結(jié)構(gòu)分解矩陣從環(huán)境、設(shè)計、施工和管理等風(fēng)險因素出發(fā)對風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了分解,形成WBS-RBS耦合矩陣對風(fēng)險事件進(jìn)行了識別,并確立了適用于礦山法隧道施工安全風(fēng)險評估指標(biāo)。(3)建立了基于模糊集理論的專項(xiàng)與總體風(fēng)險評估方法。首先利用模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論,將專家估計結(jié)果轉(zhuǎn)化為模糊集;其次考慮專家研究領(lǐng)域與評估信心,結(jié)合專家權(quán)重,對轉(zhuǎn)化的模糊集進(jìn)行基于信心指數(shù)法的修正,提高風(fēng)險分析的準(zhǔn)確性;最后提出模糊安全重要度的概念,同時考慮風(fēng)險發(fā)生概率和風(fēng)險損失的影響進(jìn)行故障樹定量分析,求得模糊安全重要度,根據(jù)風(fēng)險等級標(biāo)準(zhǔn)確定風(fēng)險等級。(4)將評估模型應(yīng)用于工程實(shí)際。本文將所建立的風(fēng)險評估模型應(yīng)用在馬巒山隧道施工安全風(fēng)險評估中,評估結(jié)論與工程實(shí)際情況近似度較高,驗(yàn)證了所建立的礦山法隧道施工安全風(fēng)險評估模型具有良好的有效性和針對性。
[Abstract]:In order to further study the safety risk assessment of mountain tunnel construction, a more perfect and applicable evaluation model is formed. Firstly, the risk assessment index is formed by using the WBS-RBS risk correlation matrix, which considers the coupling of the risk factors and the construction steps, and then the preliminary risk assessment method based on the index is established. Then the special and total risk assessment methods based on fuzzy fault tree theory are established. Finally, the model is applied to engineering examples. The main research results are as follows: 1) the rationality of using fuzzy fault tree to evaluate the risk of mine construction safety is demonstrated. Firstly, the paper expounds the emergence, development and the situation of mountain tunnel risk assessment, and discusses some problems in the study of mountain tunnel risk assessment. Secondly, the common methods of risk assessment and mountain tunnel construction are summarized, and the mine method is regarded as the supporting method of risk assessment. Finally, the problems existing in the study of mine method construction risk assessment are combined. The characteristics of risk assessment method and mine tunnel construction, In this paper, the fuzzy fault tree is used to evaluate the safety risk of mine method construction. The risk identification matrix which combines the work decomposition structure and the risk decomposition structure is established to identify the risks existing in the mine method construction. According to the construction characteristics of mine method, the tunnel construction procedure is decomposed by the work decomposition structure, and the risk is decomposed from the risk factors such as environment, design, construction and management by using the risk structure decomposition matrix. The WBS-RBS coupling matrix is formed to identify the risk events, and the risk assessment index for tunnel construction is established. (3) the special and overall risk assessment method based on fuzzy set theory is established. Firstly, using fuzzy mathematics theory, the result of expert estimation is transformed into fuzzy set. Secondly, considering the field of expert research and evaluation confidence, combining expert weight, the transformed fuzzy set is modified based on confidence index method. Finally, the concept of fuzzy safety importance is put forward, and the fuzzy safety importance is obtained by taking into account the probability of risk occurrence and the influence of risk loss on the quantitative analysis of fault tree. The evaluation model is applied to engineering practice. In this paper, the established risk assessment model is applied to the construction safety risk assessment of Malan Mountain Tunnel. The conclusion of the assessment is similar to the actual situation of the project. The established mine tunnel safety risk assessment model has good validity and pertinence.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建工程學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U455.1

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本文編號：1985435