本文選題：運輸經(jīng)濟 + 綜合運輸體系��； 參考：《北京交通大學》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：我國已步入經(jīng)濟轉型期和改革攻堅期,交通運輸?shù)陌l(fā)展模式已由改革開放初期的總量規(guī)模適應驅動型,逐步向結構適應導向型為主,總量適應驅動型為輔的階段轉變。隨著轉型步伐的加快,客運需求結構快速變化,而客運供給結構并未隨之調整,供需結構性矛盾愈演愈烈,嚴重影響了運力資源配置效率。解決客運供需結構矛盾的關鍵是理清交通與經(jīng)濟二者之間的關系,破解客運供需結構的演化機理,對客運供給結構進行優(yōu)化。為此,本文將客運供給結構優(yōu)化問題視為一個復雜系統(tǒng)的集成優(yōu)化問題,綜合運用經(jīng)濟學、交通規(guī)劃和系統(tǒng)論等多學科交叉綜合集成方法,分析和破解這一技術難題。 論文主要研究內容如下： (1)基于協(xié)同進化算法的客運供給結構適應性評價方法研究 評價客運供給結構與經(jīng)濟社會和生態(tài)環(huán)境發(fā)展的適應性是客運供給結構優(yōu)化的前提。論文運用復雜適應系統(tǒng)理論和經(jīng)濟適應性理論,將客運供給結構適應性分解為外部適應性和內部功能適應性兩部分,其中,外部適應性又包含經(jīng)濟發(fā)展適應性、社會進步適應性和生態(tài)環(huán)境適應性三個層次,并依照其定義構建了客運供給結構適應性評價指標體系,并運用多主體協(xié)同進化算法對客運供給結構的適應性進行動態(tài)評價。 (2)基于復雜適應系統(tǒng)理論的客運供需結構演化機理研究 借鑒國內外經(jīng)濟發(fā)展階段理論,對我國經(jīng)濟社會和交通運輸發(fā)展階段進行劃分,結合旅客運輸量和周轉量時間序列數(shù)據(jù)分析了我國客運供給結構的演化歷程及階段性特征；應用復雜適應系統(tǒng)理論,將客運綜合交通系統(tǒng)供需結構演化問題視為一個系統(tǒng)內部自組織,外部自適應的的復合過程,分析其演化的影響因素和演化機制,并將其抽象為數(shù)學符號構建了客運供需結構演化模型,同時,分析客運綜合交通系統(tǒng)內部運輸方式之間的競合關系,構建運輸方式競爭與合作關系模型。 (3)客運供給結構優(yōu)化雙層多目標規(guī)劃模型研究 在前文演化機理分析的基礎上,分析客運供給結構優(yōu)化的內涵和優(yōu)化目標,并根據(jù)不同優(yōu)化目標構建了相應的優(yōu)化函數(shù)；應用雙層規(guī)劃思想,將雙層規(guī)劃方法與多目標規(guī)劃方法相結合,構建基于上層供需均衡、客運服務均等化和資源節(jié)約環(huán)境友好,下層用戶消費者剩余最大化的客運供給結構優(yōu)化雙層多目標規(guī)劃模型,并設計了多目標遺傳算法,通過實例對模型的有效性進行分析和驗證。
[Abstract]:China has stepped into the period of economic transformation and reform, the development mode of transportation has been changed from the total scale of the initial stage of reform and opening up to the driving type, and gradually to the stage of the structural adaptation oriented type, supplemented by the total volume adaptation driven type. With the acceleration of the pace of transformation, the structure of passenger transport demand changes rapidly, but the structure of passenger transport supply has not been adjusted, and the structural contradiction between supply and demand is becoming more and more serious, which seriously affects the efficiency of transportation capacity resource allocation. The key to solve the contradiction between the structure of passenger transport supply and demand is to clarify the relationship between traffic and economy, to solve the evolution mechanism of the structure of passenger transport supply and demand, and to optimize the structure of passenger transport supply. Therefore, this paper regards the optimization of passenger transport supply structure as an integrated optimization problem of a complex system, and analyzes and solves this technical problem by using the multidisciplinary integrated integration methods such as economics, traffic planning and system theory. The main contents of this thesis are as follows: Research on adaptability Evaluation method of passenger Transport supply structure based on Co-Evolutionary algorithm To evaluate the adaptability of passenger transport supply structure to the development of economic society and ecological environment is the premise of optimizing passenger transport supply structure. Using the theory of complex adaptive system and economic adaptability, the paper decomposes the adaptability of passenger transport supply structure into two parts: external adaptability and internal functional adaptability, in which external adaptability also includes economic development adaptability. According to the definition of social progress adaptability and ecological environment adaptability, the evaluation index system of passenger transport supply structure adaptability is constructed, and the multi-agent co-evolution algorithm is used to dynamically evaluate the adaptability of passenger transport supply structure. Research on Evolution Mechanism of passenger Transport supply and demand structure based on complex Adaptive system Theory Based on the theory of stage of economic development at home and abroad, this paper divides the stages of economic, social and transportation development of our country, and analyzes the evolution course and stage characteristics of the structure of passenger transport supply in our country with the time series data of passenger transport volume and turnover. Based on the theory of complex adaptive system, the evolution of supply and demand structure of passenger transport integrated transportation system is regarded as a complex process of internal self-organization and external adaptation, and the influencing factors and evolution mechanism of the evolution are analyzed. The evolutionary model of passenger transport supply and demand structure is constructed by abstracting it as a mathematical symbol. At the same time, the competitive and cooperative relationship model of transportation mode is constructed by analyzing the competing relationship between internal modes of transportation in passenger transport integrated transportation system. Research on bilevel multi-objective programming model for passenger transport supply structure optimization Based on the analysis of the evolution mechanism, the connotation and objective of passenger transport supply structure optimization are analyzed, and the corresponding optimization functions are constructed according to different optimization objectives. Combining bilevel programming method with multi-objective programming method, based on upper level supply and demand equilibrium, equalization of passenger transport service and friendly environment of resource saving, The two-level multi-objective programming model of passenger transport supply structure with maximization of consumer surplus of lower users is optimized, and a multi-objective genetic algorithm is designed. The validity of the model is analyzed and verified by an example.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U116

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