本文選題：水路運輸 + 監(jiān)測預警��； 參考：《交通運輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息》2017年05期

【摘要】：在簡要分析干散貨海運市場走勢及主要影響因素的基礎上,綜合運用Delphi法、時差相關分析法、K-L信息量法與經(jīng)驗借鑒法,建立了中國干散貨海運市場環(huán)境景氣監(jiān)測預警指標體系與中國干散貨海運企業(yè)景氣監(jiān)測預警指標體系.同時,綜合利用t檢驗、綜合評價法、合成指數(shù)與擴散指數(shù)等方法,分別建立了中國干散貨海運市場環(huán)境監(jiān)測示警模型、中國干散貨海運市場環(huán)境預測示警模型、中國干散貨海運企業(yè)監(jiān)測示警模型與中國干散貨海運企業(yè)預測示警模型.最后,通過歷史數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行了驗證,結果表明,中國干散貨海運市場環(huán)境存在偏冷風險,干散貨海運企業(yè)流動資金依舊比較緊張,未來將進入一段較長時間的復蘇期.
[Abstract]:Based on a brief analysis of the trend of dry bulk shipping market and its main influencing factors, Delphi method, time difference correlation analysis method, K-L information quantity method and experience reference method are used synthetically. The index system of climate monitoring and early warning in China's dry bulk shipping market and the index system of Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises' prosperity monitoring and warning are established. At the same time, using t test, comprehensive evaluation method, synthetic index and diffusion index, respectively, the environmental monitoring and warning model of China dry bulk shipping market and the forecasting model of Chinese dry bulk shipping market environment are established. The monitoring warning model of Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises and the forecasting warning model of Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises. Finally, the model is verified by historical data. The results show that there is a cold risk in the market environment of dry bulk shipping in China, the liquidity of dry bulk shipping enterprises is still tight, and will enter a long period of recovery period in the future.
【作者單位】： 上海海事大學上海國際航運研究中心;
【基金】：上海高校知識服務平臺建設項目(ZF1209) 國家社會科學基金(15CJY057)~~
【分類號】：F552
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本文編號：1878675