發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-01 06:42

  本文選題：城市交通 + 客流量預(yù)測��； 參考：《交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息》2015年05期

【摘要】：客流量預(yù)測是城市交通樞紐管理的基礎(chǔ),準(zhǔn)確的客流量估計(jì)為交通樞紐的運(yùn)力調(diào)整,管理預(yù)案的設(shè)計(jì)提供基礎(chǔ).目前對客流量預(yù)測的研究較多,但現(xiàn)有模型并未考慮節(jié)假日效應(yīng)對樞紐客流量的影響.因此,本文基于多元季節(jié)性時(shí)間序列(SARIMAX)原理,建立考慮節(jié)假日效應(yīng)的城市交通樞紐客流量預(yù)測模型,并以上海虹橋2號(hào)航站樓站軌道交通客流量數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),對該模型進(jìn)行了標(biāo)定和預(yù)測.標(biāo)定結(jié)果顯示,在春節(jié)期間,該站點(diǎn)客流量將有明顯的下降,而在其他法定節(jié)假日期間流量均有一定程度的提升.對模型預(yù)測值和真實(shí)值比對結(jié)果顯示,該模型的平均誤差在5%以內(nèi),表明該模型具有較強(qiáng)的實(shí)用性.
[Abstract]:Passenger flow prediction is the basis of urban transportation hub management, and accurate passenger flow estimation provides the basis for the transportation capacity adjustment and the design of management plan. At present, there are many researches on passenger flow forecasting, but the existing models do not consider the influence of holiday effect on the passenger flow of the hub. Therefore, based on the principle of multiple seasonal time series (SARIMAX), this paper establishes a passenger flow forecasting model of urban transportation hub considering the holiday effect, and based on the passenger flow data of Shanghai Hongqiao Terminal No. 2 Station, The model is calibrated and predicted. The calibration results show that during the Spring Festival period, the traffic volume of the station will decrease obviously, and the flow will increase to a certain extent during the other statutory holidays. The average error of the model is less than 5%, which shows that the model has strong practicability.
【作者單位】： 同濟(jì)大學(xué)道路與交通工程教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;青島海信網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技股份有限公司;
【基金】：工信部電子發(fā)展基金項(xiàng)目(201406)
【分類號(hào)】：U115

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 張旭e，

本文編號(hào)：1828210