本文選題：城市交通 + 能源�。� 參考：《清華大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：城市交通是城市經(jīng)濟社會活動的重要支撐。伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟社會的快速發(fā)展,城市交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、交通工具在不斷更新進步的同時也帶來了一系列問題。城市交通能源消費總量的快速增長就是當前城市面臨的十分重要而緊迫的問題之一。然而,城市交通系統(tǒng)規(guī)模巨大、部門繁雜、相互影響,針對城市交通能源消費的研究手段、統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)都有待進一步補充和深入。已有研究中,針對國家層面的城市交通能源消費總量測算、對城市交通能耗的驅(qū)動因素的分析也都還不夠充分。發(fā)達國家已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷的機動化過程是十分寶貴的案例資料。本文首先以中國、美國、日本三個國家交通能源消費的對比為切入點,對比分析處在不同階段的幾個國家的交通能源消費特點。美國的交通能源消費反映出以小汽車為主導(dǎo)的交通結(jié)構(gòu)將帶來較高的人均燃油消耗,給能源供應(yīng)帶來壓力;日本車均能源消耗量顯著低于中美兩國反映出提高車輛燃油經(jīng)濟性水平的重要意義。在定性認識的基礎(chǔ)上,對城市交通能源消費總量進行定量測算同樣十分重要。基于城市交通以客運交通為主體的情況,本文從汽車保有、汽車使用強度和單位能耗三個方面,分別以汽車保有量、汽車上路率和日均行駛里程、車輛百公里油耗四個自變量為基礎(chǔ),建立了城市交通能源消費總量測算模型。為獲取汽車上路率、日均行駛里程和百公里油耗的基礎(chǔ)信息,本文在全國范圍內(nèi)進行了問卷調(diào)查�；谠撃Ｐ�,本文根據(jù)不同的城市居民出行特征和不同的路網(wǎng)運行狀態(tài)和技術(shù)進步水平下的單位能耗,設(shè)置了九個情景,對2012年至2030年我國城市交通能源消費總量進行了情景分析。情景分析結(jié)果表明,城市交通能耗約占交通部門總能耗的一半左右,在城市規(guī)劃、交通規(guī)劃、交通管理等方面采取有力措施對控制總量至關(guān)重要。通過LMDI分解理論,本文從汽車保有與使用、居民出行特征兩個角度分別對引起城市交通能源消費總量變化的原因進行了分析。分析結(jié)果表明,汽車保有量的快速增加是拉動城市交通能耗總量迅速增長最為重要的直接原因,而伴隨私人小汽車的不斷普及,居民出行中小汽車出行比例的不斷增加是城市交通能源消費總量增加的根本原因。根據(jù)以上研究成果,本文最后提出了我國城市交通能源消費總量的控制策略。
[Abstract]:Urban traffic is an important support for urban economic and social activities. With the rapid development of our country's economy and society, urban transportation infrastructure and means of transportation have brought a series of problems at the same time. The rapid growth of urban transportation energy consumption is one of the most important and urgent problems that cities are facing. However, the scale of urban transportation system is huge, the departments are complicated, and the interaction between them. The statistical data of urban transportation energy consumption need to be further supplemented and deepened. In the previous studies, the analysis of the driving factors of urban transportation energy consumption is not enough for the calculation of the total amount of urban transportation energy consumption at the national level. The motorization process already experienced by developed countries is a valuable case study. This paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of transportation energy consumption in several countries at different stages by comparing the transportation energy consumption in China, America and Japan. The transportation energy consumption in the United States reflects that the transportation structure dominated by cars will bring higher per capita fuel consumption and bring pressure to the energy supply. The energy consumption per vehicle in Japan is significantly lower than that in China and the United States, which reflects the importance of improving vehicle fuel economy. On the basis of qualitative understanding, it is also very important to measure the total amount of urban traffic energy consumption quantitatively. Based on the situation that passenger traffic is the main body of urban traffic, this paper, from three aspects of automobile retention, vehicle use intensity and unit energy consumption, respectively, is based on the vehicle ownership, the vehicle road rate and the daily mileage. Based on four independent variables of vehicle fuel consumption of 100 km, a model for calculating the total energy consumption of urban traffic is established. In order to obtain the basic information of the vehicle road rate, daily average mileage and 100 km fuel consumption, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the whole country. Based on this model, according to the different travel characteristics of urban residents, different road network operation state and energy consumption per unit under the level of technological progress, nine scenarios are set up in this paper. The total energy consumption of urban transportation in China from 2012 to 2030 was analyzed. The results of scenario analysis show that the energy consumption of urban traffic accounts for about half of the total energy consumption in the traffic sector, and it is very important to take effective measures in urban planning, traffic planning and traffic management to control the total amount. Based on the theory of LMDI decomposition, this paper analyzes the causes of the change of the total energy consumption of urban traffic from the aspects of vehicle retention and usage, and the characteristics of residents' travel. The results show that the rapid increase of vehicle ownership is the most important direct reason for the rapid growth of the total energy consumption of urban traffic, and along with the continuous popularity of private cars, The increasing proportion of car travel is the fundamental reason for the increase of urban transportation energy consumption. Based on the above research results, this paper finally puts forward the control strategy of the total energy consumption of urban transportation in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491

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