本文選題：北極航線　切入點(diǎn)：大北極　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：北極航線是指穿過(guò)北冰洋,連接太平洋北部和大西洋北部的航線。北極科考數(shù)據(jù)顯示,極有可能在2050年北極出現(xiàn)夏季無(wú)冰狀態(tài),屆時(shí)北極航線則有望全線開(kāi)通。北極航線開(kāi)通,受益的不僅是環(huán)北極的八個(gè)國(guó)家。其作為人類共有的財(cái)富,一旦商業(yè)通航,定會(huì)對(duì)世界交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生影響。在一定程度上,北極航線輻射到的國(guó)家和地區(qū)非常廣泛。因此,大北極概念的適時(shí)提出,無(wú)疑將有利于掌握航線開(kāi)通對(duì)世界格局的全面影響,及對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的深刻影響。依賴于海上運(yùn)輸?shù)闹袊?guó),處于東北亞的核心區(qū)域、北極航線的延長(zhǎng)線上,北極航線的全線開(kāi)通導(dǎo)致的交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的演變必將影響到中國(guó),增加到達(dá)歐洲和北美洲的航線的同時(shí),還能增強(qiáng)中國(guó)與其他大北極國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系提升我國(guó)在大北極交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的地位。因此,研究北極航線開(kāi)通對(duì)大北極交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的影響以及中國(guó)應(yīng)采取何種策略來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先介紹了研究背景和意義,國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果評(píng)述以及本文的主要主要方法和內(nèi)容。本文對(duì)北極航線的發(fā)展歷程進(jìn)行了深刻分析,同時(shí)闡述了大北極及其交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的特點(diǎn)和功能,著重探討了大北極交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的構(gòu)成,在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)大北極交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,預(yù)測(cè)北極航線全線開(kāi)通后對(duì)大北極交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的影響,以及整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)未來(lái)的演變趨勢(shì)和發(fā)展前景。本文首先選取了影響因素,其次運(yùn)用ISM模型理論對(duì)這些影響因素進(jìn)行分析,得到影響交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的根本因素為政策指向和環(huán)境容量,而直接影響因素為運(yùn)輸供需和國(guó)家發(fā)展水平。接著深入分析北極航線對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的影響作用。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文著重討論了大北極交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)在北極航線全線開(kāi)通后的全面發(fā)展趨勢(shì),并在其中分析了北極航線通航后的經(jīng)濟(jì)性,模擬實(shí)例計(jì)算了節(jié)約的航次時(shí)間和營(yíng)運(yùn)成本,證明了大北極交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)向更高效益發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)。針對(duì)這些發(fā)展變化和趨勢(shì),最后從戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)、戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施、戰(zhàn)略支撐三個(gè)方面對(duì)中國(guó)應(yīng)采取的戰(zhàn)略進(jìn)行深入全面的闡述。
[Abstract]:The Arctic route is a route across the Arctic Ocean that connects the northern Pacific Ocean and the northern Atlantic Ocean.Arctic data show that the Arctic is likely to be free of summer ice in 2050, when the Arctic route is expected to open.Arctic routes are open, benefiting not just the eight countries around the Arctic.As a common wealth of mankind, once commercial navigation, it will have an impact on the world transportation system.To a certain extent, the Arctic route radiation to a wide range of countries and regions.Therefore, the timely introduction of the concept of the Great Arctic will undoubtedly be beneficial to grasp the overall impact of the opening of the route on the world pattern and the profound impact on the transportation network.China, which depends on sea transportation, is located in the core region of Northeast Asia, and the evolution of transportation network caused by the opening of the entire Arctic route will certainly affect China.By increasing the number of routes to Europe and North America, the trade links between China and other Arctic countries will be strengthened, and China's position in the transportation network of the Great Arctic will be enhanced.Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of Arctic route opening on the transportation network of the Great Arctic and what strategies should be adopted by China to deal with it.This paper first introduces the research background and significance, domestic and foreign related research results, as well as the main methods and contents of this paper.This paper makes a deep analysis of the course of development of the Arctic route, expounds the characteristics and functions of the Great Arctic and its transport network, and emphatically discusses the composition of the transportation network of the Great Arctic.This paper analyzes the present situation of the transportation network in the Great Arctic, and predicts the influence of the whole route on the transportation network in the Arctic, as well as the evolution trend and development prospect of the whole network in the future.This paper first selects the influencing factors, and then analyzes these factors by using the ISM model theory, and obtains that the basic factors affecting the transportation network are policy direction and environmental capacity.And the direct influence factor is the transport supply and demand and the national development level.Then, the effect of Arctic route on transportation network is analyzed.On this basis, this paper focuses on the overall development trend of the Great Arctic transport network after the opening of the entire Arctic route, and analyzes the economy of the Arctic route after the opening of the route.A simulation example is given to calculate the saved voyage time and operation cost, which proves the trend of the development of the transportation network in the Great Arctic towards higher efficiency.In view of these development changes and trends, the strategy that China should adopt is expounded in detail from three aspects: strategic goal, strategic implementation and strategic support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U697.33;U113

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