發(fā)布時間：2018-03-31 01:32

  本文選題：隧道工程　切入點：多變量模型　出處：《公路交通科技》2017年12期

【摘要】：隧道拱頂沉降是多種因素共同作用的一個十分復雜的過程,很難用數(shù)學模型進行精確計算。實際施工過程中,圍巖情況經(jīng)常發(fā)生變化,為滿足設(shè)計要求,必須嚴格控制隧道拱頂沉降。傳統(tǒng)的預測模型都只是利用拱頂沉降監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)建立單變量模型進行擬合并預測。隧道開挖過程中,拱頂變形所受影響因素較多,導致監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)序列中常常出現(xiàn)離散型較大的數(shù)據(jù),單一變量模型預測精度受這些離散數(shù)據(jù)的影響較大,而且篩除離散型較大的數(shù)據(jù)會直接影響模型預測精度,因此單一模型只能對拱頂沉降量做粗略的估計。針對這一問題,根據(jù)隧道變形的同時性和內(nèi)在相關(guān)性,利用拱頂變形監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)和同期兩側(cè)收斂變形監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建帶輸入變量的時序模型、GM(1,2)模型和BP模型分別對拱頂沉降變形進行預測,并運用實例驗證了所建模型的有效性。通過對兩種模型的預測精度進行對比可知,單一變量的時序模型只能對變形的趨勢作出預測,預測精度較低,難以對拱頂沉降進行有效預測,而單一變量的GM(1,1)預測模型則完全失效。為了避免單一模型自身的缺陷導致預測精度降低,同時使不同模型間優(yōu)勢互補,本研究建立了基于以上3種帶輸入變量模型的集成預測模型,其加權(quán)系數(shù)采用熵值法確定;最后將該模型運用于寶漢高速白廟子隧道中進行檢驗,結(jié)果表明該集成模型更有效,預測精度更高。
[Abstract]:The settlement of tunnel vault is a very complicated process which is influenced by many factors, so it is difficult to calculate accurately by mathematical model.In the actual construction process, the surrounding rock situation often changes, in order to meet the design requirements, the tunnel vault settlement must be strictly controlled.The traditional prediction models only use the dome settlement monitoring data to establish a univariate model for pseudo-combined prediction.In the course of tunnel excavation, the deformation of arch roof is affected by many factors, which leads to the occurrence of large discrete data in monitoring data sequence, and the prediction accuracy of single variable model is greatly affected by these discrete data.Moreover, screening large discrete data will directly affect the prediction accuracy of the model, so a single model can only make a rough estimate of the settlement of the vault.In response to this problem, according to the simultaneous nature and intrinsic correlation of tunnel deformation,Based on the data of roof deformation monitoring and convergent deformation monitoring on both sides of the same period, a time series model with input variables is constructed, and the BP model and the time series model are used to predict the settlement deformation of the vault respectively. The validity of the model is verified by an example.By comparing the prediction accuracy of the two models, it can be seen that the single variable time series model can only predict the trend of deformation, and the prediction accuracy is low, so it is difficult to predict the settlement of arch roof effectively.The single variable GM-1) prediction model is completely ineffective.In order to avoid the defect of single model and make the different models complement each other, an integrated prediction model with input variables is established, and its weighting coefficient is determined by entropy method.Finally, the model is tested in Bao-Han high-speed Baimaozi tunnel. The results show that the integrated model is more effective and the prediction accuracy is higher.
【作者單位】： 武漢理工大學土木工程與建筑學院;
【分類號】：U456.3

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