本文選題：混合交通　切入點：風險感知　出處：《北京理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：混合交通是世界很多城市比較常見的交通現(xiàn)象，尤其是機動車和非機動車混合現(xiàn)象，混合交通中機動車和非機動車會相互沖突干擾，導致交通效率和交通安全降低，，并容易引發(fā)事故風險。為此，認識機動車和非機動車產(chǎn)生沖突干擾機理，引入符合實際的模型來分析機非沖突風險感知與避險行為，為交通安全管理和交通規(guī)劃提供理論依據(jù)。本文主要工作如下： （1）針對我國混合交通中機非沖突干擾的特點，對機非沖突干擾問題進行實際調(diào)查，之后根據(jù)混合交通中機動車和非機動車行為特點，分析混合交通中機非沖突干擾機理，并對機動車和非機動車沖突干擾進行了新的定義。 （2）根據(jù)實測數(shù)據(jù)運用生存分析法對機非沖突風險感知進行建模分析，得到機非沖突干擾概率和距離的關(guān)系，結(jié)果顯示：隨著機動車和非機動車沖突干擾距離的增加，沖突風險感知敏感性逐漸升高。同時，通過將非機動車分為自行車和電動車，分別分析其風險感知敏感性，得出自行車騎行人的風險感知敏感性大于電動車騎行人的風險感知敏感性。 （3）機非沖突風險感知敏感性受到多種因素影響，運用持續(xù)期模型對影響因素進行了分析，得到不同交通環(huán)境下的機非沖突風險感知敏感性，同時，運用相對風險率分析法從弱勢交通參與者的角度對不同因素影響程度進行定量分析。結(jié)果顯示：非機動車種類（自行車、電動車）、非機動車速度、機動車速度、高峰小時非機動車流量、高峰小時機動車流量、5分鐘時間段非機動車流量和5分鐘時間段機動車流量等7個因素對機非沖突干擾造成顯著影響。同時，各因素影響效果的顯著程度也各不相同。 （4）對機動車與非機動車沖突避險距離和臨界避險距離進行建模研究，得到機非沖突避險區(qū)域和臨界避險區(qū)域，研究結(jié)果顯示：避險區(qū)域、臨界避險區(qū)域都與機動車和非機動車速度密切相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Mixed traffic is a common traffic phenomenon in many cities all over the world, especially the mixture of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles. In mixed traffic, motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles will interfere with each other, resulting in lower traffic efficiency and traffic safety. It is easy to lead to accident risk. Therefore, the mechanism of conflict interference between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle is recognized, and a practical model is introduced to analyze the perception of non-conflict risk and the behavior of avoiding risk. To provide theoretical basis for traffic safety management and traffic planning. The main work of this paper is as follows:. 1) according to the characteristics of aircraft non-conflict interference in mixed traffic in China, the problem of non-collision interference is investigated, and then according to the behavior characteristics of motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle in mixed traffic, the mechanism of non-collision interference in hybrid traffic is analyzed. A new definition of conflict interference between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle is given. 2) based on the measured data, using survival analysis method to model and analyze the perception of aircraft non-conflict risk, the relationship between the probability and distance of aircraft non-conflict interference is obtained. The results show that: with the increase of conflict interference distance between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle, At the same time, by dividing non-motor vehicles into bicycle and electric vehicle, the sensitivity of risk perception was analyzed. The risk sensitivity of cyclists is higher than that of electric cyclists. 3) the sensitivity of aircraft non-conflict risk perception is affected by many factors. The influence factors are analyzed by using duration model, and the sensitivity of aircraft non-conflict risk perception under different traffic environment is obtained, at the same time, The relative risk rate analysis is used to analyze the influence degree of different factors from the angle of the weak traffic participants. The results show that the types of non-motor vehicles (bicycle, electric vehicle, non-motor vehicle speed, motor vehicle speed), Seven factors, such as peak hour non-motor vehicle flow, peak hour vehicle flow during 5 minutes and vehicle flow in 5 minutes, have a significant effect on non-conflict interference. The degree of significance of each factor affecting the effect is also different. (4) the model of vehicle and non-motor vehicle conflict risk avoidance distance and critical risk avoidance distance are studied, and the results show that, The critical safe havens are closely related to the speed of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles.
【學位授予單位】：北京理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.2

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