本文選題：左轉(zhuǎn)車輛強(qiáng)制變道行為　切入點(diǎn)：決策博弈　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：城市道路信號(hào)交叉口是交通擁堵的主要發(fā)生源,因此是緩解交通擁堵的重點(diǎn)研究對(duì)象,而在信號(hào)交叉口中,左轉(zhuǎn)交通是解決問(wèn)題的重點(diǎn)和難點(diǎn)。很多需要左轉(zhuǎn)的車輛在離交叉口較遠(yuǎn)的位置未能及時(shí)變道,而在臨近交叉口前由直行車道強(qiáng)制進(jìn)入左轉(zhuǎn)專用車道,這種強(qiáng)制變道行為干擾了交通流的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行,并且容易造成交通安全隱患,有必要對(duì)這種行為進(jìn)行研究。采集左轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)制變道車輛的變道時(shí)間、地點(diǎn)、速度和加速度等數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)的方法分析其變道行為特性及各種因素對(duì)變道距離、變道時(shí)間和變道速度的影響,對(duì)比分析強(qiáng)制變道和自由變道行駛特性的區(qū)別,全面的描述強(qiáng)制變道行為。左轉(zhuǎn)車輛強(qiáng)制變道時(shí)與目標(biāo)車道后車的沖突明顯,建立二者的混合策略博弈模型,博弈的收益包含時(shí)間收益、安全收益和變道需求收益,求解博弈模型的混合策略納什均衡,用于指導(dǎo)博弈雙方的決策。用變道距離代表變道行為,選擇與變道距離線性相關(guān)性最顯著的因素,運(yùn)用模糊邏輯的方法建立變道距離的預(yù)測(cè)模型,用于變道行為的預(yù)判和選擇。將模型預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)際值、線性回歸預(yù)測(cè)值進(jìn)行對(duì)比檢驗(yàn),并根據(jù)變道時(shí)間、變道速度與變道距離的關(guān)系將模型進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展。運(yùn)用交通流理論和運(yùn)動(dòng)學(xué)理論研究左轉(zhuǎn)車輛強(qiáng)制變道行為對(duì)交通運(yùn)行效率的影響,包括變道造成的自身的延誤和對(duì)目標(biāo)車道后車造成的延誤。運(yùn)用交通沖突法研究強(qiáng)制變道對(duì)交通安全的影響,定義強(qiáng)制變道的沖突,并建立沖突嚴(yán)重性界定指標(biāo),據(jù)此將沖突分為不發(fā)生沖突、輕微沖突、一般沖突和嚴(yán)重沖突。為了盡量規(guī)避、減少左轉(zhuǎn)車輛強(qiáng)制變道帶來(lái)的不良影響,提出基于最大排隊(duì)長(zhǎng)度的交叉口導(dǎo)向箭頭及禁止變道標(biāo)線設(shè)置方法,分飽和狀態(tài)和非飽和狀態(tài)詳細(xì)分析,提醒車輛提前進(jìn)行強(qiáng)制變道�；诓┺恼撎岢鰧�(duì)危險(xiǎn)強(qiáng)制變道行為進(jìn)行監(jiān)控和處罰的管理辦法,以約束其行為決策。
[Abstract]:The signalized intersection of urban roads is the main source of traffic congestion, so it is the key research object to alleviate traffic congestion, and in the signalized intersection, Turning left traffic is the key and difficult point to solve the problem. Many vehicles that need to turn left fail to change track in time when they are farther away from the intersection, and forced into the left turn lane by the direct lane before approaching the intersection. This behavior interferes with the smooth running of traffic flow and easily causes traffic safety hazards. It is necessary to study this behavior. Data on the time, location, speed and acceleration of the change of track of the forced left-turn vehicle are collected. The influence of various factors on the path distance, time and velocity is analyzed by means of mathematical statistics, and the difference between the driving characteristics of forced and free channel is compared and analyzed. The conflict between the left-turn vehicle and the vehicle behind the target lane is obvious. The mixed strategy game model of the two is established. The income of the game includes the time income, the safety benefit and the change path demand income. The mixed strategy Nash equilibrium for solving the game model is used to guide the decision of both sides of the game. The prediction model of variable trace distance is established by the method of fuzzy logic, which is used to predict and select the behavior of variable channel. The predicted value of the model is compared with the actual value, and the predicted value of linear regression is compared with the predicted value of linear regression. The model is extended by the relationship between the changing speed and the changing distance. The effect of forced change of track behavior on the traffic efficiency is studied by using the traffic flow theory and kinematics theory. Using the traffic conflict method to study the impact of the forced diversion on traffic safety, to define the conflict of the forced change of road, and to establish the index to define the severity of the conflict, including the delay caused by the change of track and the delay caused by the vehicle behind the target lane. According to this, conflicts are divided into non-conflict, minor conflict, general conflict and serious conflict. Based on the maximum queue length, this paper presents a method for setting the orientation arrow and forbidden track marking of intersections, and analyzes the saturation state and unsaturated state in detail. Based on game theory, a management method for monitoring and punishing dangerous forced lane shifting is proposed to restrict its behavior decision.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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