本文選題：生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品　切入點(diǎn)：運(yùn)輸　出處：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：與傳統(tǒng)貨物相比,生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸流程技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不一、批次多而數(shù)量少、成本變化較大,運(yùn)輸環(huán)節(jié)是連接供給方與需求方的重要紐帶,是決定物流服務(wù)質(zhì)量的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),是提高物流生命力的先決條件。作為一種社會(huì)活動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),運(yùn)輸離不開(kāi)人的行為決策,生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策的合理性關(guān)系到運(yùn)輸效果的優(yōu)劣,究其原因:第一,自然環(huán)境、社會(huì)環(huán)境以及人的認(rèn)知水平不同,將對(duì)運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策產(chǎn)生不同程度影響,表現(xiàn)在運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策形式因決策者的運(yùn)輸訴求、偏好不同而差異明顯;第二,各種運(yùn)輸方式的技術(shù)特點(diǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì)不同,同一運(yùn)輸訴求下的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)各有特點(diǎn);第三,生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策的過(guò)程屬于非理性選擇過(guò)程,運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策者對(duì)“不符合自身需求、不利于達(dá)到運(yùn)輸目的”的接受度不同,即對(duì)差異的偏好持不同敏感度,也影響著運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策。本文旨在分析生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策行為的一般過(guò)程,探析其內(nèi)在機(jī)理,通過(guò)驗(yàn)證主客觀因素對(duì)決策的影響程度,抽取描述運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)性能的可靠性屬性,以此探討系統(tǒng)性能約束下的決策優(yōu)選,為作出合理決策給出理論參考依據(jù)。生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品物流的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)均存在運(yùn)輸活動(dòng),運(yùn)輸貫穿生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)、加工、配送和消費(fèi)過(guò)程,在這些物流節(jié)點(diǎn)之間,存在需求各異的運(yùn)輸承運(yùn)方和托運(yùn)方,伴有載運(yùn)工具的轉(zhuǎn)換銜接。以運(yùn)輸為依托的現(xiàn)代生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品物流體系將對(duì)運(yùn)輸效率、運(yùn)輸服務(wù)質(zhì)量提出更高要求,物流對(duì)運(yùn)輸活動(dòng)的影響過(guò)程也將不斷擴(kuò)展和加深。因此,探討運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策離不開(kāi)物流系統(tǒng)這個(gè)決策大環(huán)境,梳理整個(gè)物流過(guò)程中運(yùn)輸?shù)淖饔�、機(jī)理,總結(jié)不同物流模式下的運(yùn)輸現(xiàn)狀,分析其與運(yùn)輸需求滿足之間的矛盾,有利于更好把握運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)性能,對(duì)決策分析更具現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。時(shí)效性、便利性、經(jīng)濟(jì)性、安全性是描述運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)性能的關(guān)鍵要素,為研究這些要素對(duì)不同運(yùn)輸方式下決策行為的影響程度,將抽象的要素具體化,體現(xiàn)為主、客觀因素。通過(guò)篩選,將“成本、效率、安全”設(shè)為測(cè)量主觀影響因素的潛變量,將“運(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、物流配套體系、運(yùn)輸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)制定、低碳環(huán)保理念”設(shè)為測(cè)量客觀制約因素的潛變量,建立結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型。以此探討對(duì)運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策產(chǎn)生影響的客觀制約條件和主觀選擇偏好,厘清決策過(guò)程中的相互制約關(guān)系,分析驗(yàn)證并得出不同運(yùn)輸方式下成本、時(shí)間、安全等因素對(duì)決策的影響及程度,為研究可靠性約束下的決策行為奠定基礎(chǔ)。針對(duì)生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸品質(zhì)要求高、方式間屬性差異明顯等特點(diǎn),可靠性理論適用于度量不同屬性的性能優(yōu)劣,是診斷運(yùn)輸品質(zhì)好壞、判斷運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策優(yōu)劣的理論依據(jù)之一。生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)性能的優(yōu)劣性,可從經(jīng)濟(jì)可靠性、時(shí)效可靠性、安全可靠性三個(gè)方面展開(kāi)分析,梳理影響運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)可靠性的因素,以及可靠性屬性之間彼此影響的程度和范圍,最終確定“以計(jì)算運(yùn)輸安全可靠性”為生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)可靠性的度量方式,并探討其合理性。運(yùn)用故障樹(shù)法,將“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性(或安全性、運(yùn)輸品質(zhì)完好性)”確立為研究對(duì)象,設(shè)計(jì)指標(biāo)體系,按照引起頂上事件發(fā)生的底事件和中間事件的層層邏輯連接,繪制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)體系結(jié)構(gòu)圖,并依據(jù)映射規(guī)則轉(zhuǎn)化為相應(yīng)的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),以此計(jì)算運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)頂上事件概率和整個(gè)系統(tǒng)可靠度,進(jìn)而分析系統(tǒng)完全失效時(shí),對(duì)運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)可靠性施加作用的底事件的后驗(yàn)概率及其變化率。運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策屬于個(gè)人“非理性”活動(dòng),同時(shí)受各種條件制約,體現(xiàn)為客觀條件制約下的主觀選擇差異,運(yùn)輸方式備選方案的差異主要體現(xiàn)在運(yùn)輸方式的屬性差異,每一決策主體對(duì)運(yùn)輸方案屬性差異的敏感度不同,分為看重差異、不太看重差異、不看重差異的三種不同態(tài)度下的運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策。本文所研究生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策,最終運(yùn)用多屬性決策方法,將運(yùn)輸安全作為備選方案的重要屬性,體現(xiàn)在每一方案的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重和其他因素的權(quán)重占比不同上,再依據(jù)不同運(yùn)輸方式間的屬性差異,根據(jù)滿足補(bǔ)償機(jī)制可能性的高、中、低程度,作出相應(yīng)決策。每一運(yùn)輸路段可能隱含潛在運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn),突出方案的安全屬性差異更能體現(xiàn)運(yùn)輸方式?jīng)Q策的科學(xué)性、實(shí)用性,更符合客觀限制下的選擇偏好規(guī)律,為解決現(xiàn)實(shí)中時(shí)效性和品質(zhì)性不能兼顧的矛盾性問(wèn)題提供思路。
[Abstract]:Compared with the traditional goods, fresh agricultural products transportation process technology standards, batch and quantity, cost changes greatly, transportation is the important link between the supply side and demand side, is the key of logistics service quality, is a prerequisite for improving the logistics vitality. As a kind of social and economic activities transport, cannot do without people's decision, the decision of fresh agricultural products transportation rationality related to transportation efficiency, the reason is: first, the natural environment, social environment and people's cognitive level, will be on the mode of transport decision-making have different effects, in the mode of transport due to the transport demand decision formal decision makers the preference varies obviously; second, technical characteristics and economic advantages of various modes of transport, the comparative advantage of the same transport demand under different characteristics; third, fresh agricultural products The process of transportation decision-making belongs to non rational selection process, decision makers of the mode of transport "does not meet their needs, is not conducive to transport to" acceptance of different preferences to different differences in sensitivity, but also affect the transportation decision-making. This paper aims to analyze the general process of fresh agricultural products transportation decision-making behavior and analysis of its internal mechanism, through the verification of subjective and objective factors of the decision, the reliability attribute extraction description transportation system performance, in order to explore the optimum decision system under performance constraints, to make reasonable decision provides the theory reference. All aspects of fresh agricultural products logistics are transport activities throughout the transportation of fresh agricultural products production, processing, distribution and consumption, between the logistics node, transport carrier and shipper has different needs, with carrying with transition The modern logistics system of fresh agricultural products. Based on the transport transport efficiency, transport service quality put forward higher requirements, process effect on logistics transportation activities will continue to expand and deepen. Therefore, to explore the decision-making mode of transport logistics system cannot do without the decision-making environment, transport sort out the whole process of logistics. The mechanism, summarize the transport situation of different logistics mode, and to analyze the contradiction between transportation demand, is conducive to better grasp the transportation system performance analysis is more realistic guiding significance for decision-making. The timeliness, convenience, economy, safety is the description of key elements of transportation system performance, to study the influence of these factors the behavior of different modes of transport, elements of the abstract concrete, reflecting mainly objective factors. Through screening, the cost, efficiency and safety "as the measurement of subjective factors influence The latent variables, the transportation infrastructure construction, logistics system, transportation standards, the concept of "low carbon environmental protection as the objective measurement factors of latent variable, structural equation model. In order to explore the mode of transportation decision objective condition influence and subjective preference, clarify the relationship in the decision making process the analysis and draw the different modes of transport cost and time, the influence on decision-making of safety factors and degree, lay the foundation for the research on the decision making behavior under reliability constraints. For the transportation of fresh agricultural product quality requirements, the difference between the obvious characteristics of attributes, the reliability theory is applied to the performance measurement of different attributes. The diagnosis is the quality of transport, determine the theoretical basis of the mode of transportation decision quality. Quality of fresh agricultural products transportation system performance, from the economic reliability, aging Three aspects of reliability, safety and reliability analysis, combing the influencing factors of transportation system reliability, and reliability attributes influence mutually the degree and extent of the final "to calculate the transport safety and reliability to measure reliability of the transportation system of fresh agricultural products, and to explore its rationality. By fault tree, the risk (or safety, transportation readiness) quality" as the research object, the design of index system, according to the logic of events on the top and bottom layers caused by the incident and intermediate event connection, draw risk system structure diagram, and based on the mapping rules into the corresponding Bayesian network, in order to calculate the risk of transportation on the top event probability and the whole system reliability analysis system, and complete failure, the bottom event exerted on the transport system reliability of the posterior probability and the change rate of the mode of transportation will. Policy belongs to the individual "irrational" activities at the same time, restricted by various conditions, embodies the subjective choice of the objective conditions of the difference, the difference mode of transportation alternatives is mainly reflected in the properties of different modes of transport, each decision-maker on transportation scheme attribute difference different sensitivity, divided into value differences, not too much difference three, different attitude under the mode of transportation decision do not value differences. Research on decision making of fresh agricultural products transportation in this paper, the ultimate use of multi attribute decision making method, the transportation safety as an important alternative attribute, reflected in the weights of risk weights for each scheme and other factors accounted for different, according to different attributes between different modes of transport, to meet the high possibility of compensation mechanism, in low degree, make corresponding decisions. Each road transportation may imply potential transportation risk, prominent scheme The difference of safety attributes can better reflect the scientificity and practicability of transportation mode decision, and more accord with the rule of preference preference under objective constraints, so as to provide ideas for solving the contradictory problems that can not be considered in time and quality in reality.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U116

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