本文關鍵詞： 綜合運輸 交通運輸結構 信息熵 灰色預測 馬爾科夫模型　出處：《數(shù)學的實踐與認識》2017年22期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：隨著新型城鎮(zhèn)化的建設,西部區(qū)域綜合交通運輸網(wǎng)絡有了很大的改善,對其交通運輸結構的發(fā)展程度進行研究已顯得尤為重要.運用信息熵理論和灰色預測模型,對西部區(qū)域交通運輸結構的演變趨勢進行分析與預測,并以甘肅省為例進行實證分析.結果表明:由于近幾年公路運輸?shù)目焖侔l(fā)展,甘肅省運輸結構的信息熵呈逐年下降趨勢,各運輸方式運量發(fā)展不均衡;對比GM(1,1)模型與灰色馬爾科夫模型可得,后者更適用于西部區(qū)域交通運輸結構的演變預測.研究結果可為西部區(qū)域交通運輸結構的完善提供相應的參考.
[Abstract]:With the construction of new urbanization, the comprehensive transportation network in the western region has been greatly improved, so it is very important to study the development degree of its transportation structure. This paper analyzes and forecasts the evolution trend of transportation structure in the western region, and takes Gansu Province as an example. The results show that the information entropy of transportation structure in Gansu Province is decreasing year by year because of the rapid development of highway transportation in recent years. The development of various modes of transport is uneven; a comparison between the GM1 / 1) model and the grey Markov model can be obtained. The latter is more suitable for the prediction of the evolution of the transport structure in the western region, and the research results can provide a reference for the improvement of the transport structure in the western region.
【作者單位】： 蘭州交通大學交通運輸學院;
【基金】：國家社科基金青年項目(14CJY052);國家社科基金項目(15BJY037) 甘肅省自然科學基金項目(1606RJZA017,1508RJZA112)
【分類號】：N941.5;U111
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本文編號：1517710