本文關(guān)鍵詞： 高速公路 BOT模式 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：基于BOT模式的高速公路工程項(xiàng)目近年來在我國逐漸增多,但對于此類項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析技術(shù)和方法卻仍不成熟,這給投資此類項(xiàng)目的投資者帶來了一些麻煩和困惑。如何能夠準(zhǔn)確地識別風(fēng)險(xiǎn),科學(xué)地評估風(fēng)險(xiǎn),有效地規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以便給投資決策者提供決策依據(jù)已是一個亟待解決的問題。本文分析了高速公路BOT建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)基本理論,從流程與程序、利益相關(guān)方等方面論述了BOT模式的概念與特點(diǎn),從高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別階段、評價(jià)階段、應(yīng)對階段論述了BOT風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本理論,站在與政府簽訂項(xiàng)目實(shí)施協(xié)議的投資方的角度,對綿西高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別進(jìn)行了闡述,分七個方面對發(fā)生幾率較大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行深入的分析,包括市場環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別、項(xiàng)目生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別、管理經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別、項(xiàng)目完工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別、項(xiàng)目不可抗力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別,為下文的項(xiàng)目評價(jià)打下良好的基礎(chǔ)。結(jié)合定性與定量兩個方式進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的綜合評價(jià),闡述了基于層次分析法的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素及層次,確定了高速公路BOT風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素集,確定了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素權(quán)重集,通過AHP方法建立了評價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重集,并對其進(jìn)行了修正,闡述了具體評價(jià)過程的實(shí)施。對高速公路BOT工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模糊綜合評價(jià)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,對高速公路工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素集進(jìn)行確定,確定高速公路工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重集,在此基礎(chǔ)上確定了高速公路項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)集,構(gòu)建了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模糊評價(jià)矩陣,從而對項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行模糊評價(jià),并得出了最終的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)結(jié)果。結(jié)合高速公路工程項(xiàng)目的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn),詳細(xì)闡述了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范與應(yīng)對。闡述了環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn),金融環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn),市場環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn),生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營境風(fēng)險(xiǎn),管理經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn),項(xiàng)目不可抗力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的規(guī)避策略。
[Abstract]:Expressway engineering projects based on BOT mode have been increasing gradually in China in recent years, but the investment risk analysis techniques and methods for such projects are still immature. This brings some troubles and puzzles to investors who invest in such projects. How to identify risks scientifically and effectively avoid them. In order to provide investment decision makers with the basis of decision-making has been an urgent problem. This paper analyzes the basic theory of highway BOT construction project risk from the process and procedures. Stakeholders discussed the concept and characteristics of the BOT model, and discussed the basic theory of BOT risk management from the identification stage, evaluation stage and response stage of the expressway BOT project risk. From the point of view of the investors who signed the project implementation agreement with the government, the paper expounds the risk identification of the BOT project of the Mianxi Expressway, and analyzes the risk with the greater probability in seven aspects. Including the identification of market environment risk, project production risk identification, management risk identification, project completion risk identification, project force majeure risk identification. For the following project evaluation lay a good foundation. Combined with qualitative and quantitative two ways of risk comprehensive evaluation, elaborated based on AHP risk factors and levels. The risk factor set of expressway BOT is determined and the weight set of risk factor is determined. The evaluation index weight set is established by AHP method and modified. The implementation of concrete evaluation process is expounded. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of expressway BOT project risk is empirically analyzed, and the risk factor set of expressway project project is determined. On the basis of determining the risk weight set of expressway project, the risk evaluation set of expressway project is determined, and the fuzzy evaluation matrix of project risk is constructed, so that the fuzzy evaluation of project risk is carried out. Finally, the risk evaluation results are obtained. Combined with the main risks of highway project, the prevention and response of risk are elaborated in detail. The environmental risk, financial environmental risk and market environmental risk are expounded. Production environment risk, management risk, project force majeure risk avoidance strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U415.1

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