發(fā)布時間：2018-01-22 08:10

  本文關鍵詞： BRT與有軌電車類比 BRT適應性分析 客流需求預測 BRT走廊選址 BRT效率分析　出處：《東南大學》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：城市公共交通系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)被證實為解決城市交通擁堵的重要策略,而作為大中型運量的快速公交系統(tǒng)和有軌電車系統(tǒng)作為其重要的實現(xiàn)形式,已經(jīng)在世界各大中型城市得到廣泛應用。隨著我國城市交通出行人口需求與日俱增,在道路資源和交通供給能力緊張的情況下,發(fā)展小汽車的交通模式無法應對如此龐大的交通負荷,因此公交和小汽車對道路資源展開了激烈博弈。尤其近年來,我國大部分城市被交通擁堵、交通事故、霧霾空氣污染等城市問題困擾,綠色可持續(xù)的公共交通系統(tǒng)被提升到城市發(fā)展的基本策略,各城市正在大規(guī)模開展BRT系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃和建設。結合當前BRT系統(tǒng)發(fā)展需求,該論文重點研究基于我國城市特征的BRT系統(tǒng)適應性分析,并建立BRT系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃、選址和評估方法。主要是通過查閱國內(nèi)外大量相關文獻和研究成果,總結現(xiàn)有理論與方法的空白點和薄弱點,綜合利用交通規(guī)劃、信息論、系統(tǒng)工程及交通仿真等技術對BRT的適應性展開系統(tǒng)研究,類比BRT與同級別的有軌電車,以推動和完善BRT系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃與選址、客流需求預測、系統(tǒng)效益預評估和后評估理論的完善發(fā)展。首先,從我國大部分城市的BRT和有軌電車系統(tǒng)特點出發(fā),分析了城市和城市發(fā)展特征,從技術功能、投資造價、能耗與環(huán)保、適應性和運營管理等方面,以實際系統(tǒng)為基礎類比研究了BRT與有軌電車兩類中運量公交系統(tǒng)在政治、經(jīng)濟、交通需求、道路資源利用等方面的優(yōu)缺點,同時剖析了BRT與有軌電車在我國發(fā)展中存在的問題。然后,從城市建設BRT系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)在需求因素和外部供給因素出發(fā),著重研究了城市發(fā)展水平與經(jīng)濟規(guī)模、走廊客流量及出行特征、道路交通條件和城市形象等影響城市和交通走廊的因素�；谏鲜鲋笜�,利用層次分析法建立了多目標決策模型,構建了中運量快速公交比選方法,形成了BRT系統(tǒng)的適應性分析模型。與現(xiàn)有方法相比,本研究基于我國大部分城市和城市交通特點,先類比分析了BRT和有軌電車的優(yōu)缺點,然后深入研究了BRT系統(tǒng)適應性分析方法,綜合了城市發(fā)展水平與經(jīng)濟規(guī)模、走廊客流量及出行特征、道路交通條件和城市形象等內(nèi)在需求因素,以及運營效率、投資造價、功能技術等外部供給因素,提出了基于采用層次加性加權法建立適應性評估模型。再次,從BRT走廊選址的基本前提條件客流需求預測出發(fā),建立了基于信息熵理論的土地結構熵客流預測模型。在客流預測的基礎上,建立了BRT走廊選址策略,涵蓋了城市空間因素、城市土地利用、公交客流需求、道路空間結構、路網(wǎng)運行效率和其他方面。提出了將功能定位與走廊選址相結合的規(guī)劃方法確定候選走廊,然后根據(jù)提出的選擇模型進行篩選。針對最重要的篩選指標客流量,提出了引入土地結構熵參數(shù)的客流需求預測廣義重力模型。與傳統(tǒng)重力模型相比,該方法借助信息熵理論,建立了土地結構熵模型和引入熵參數(shù)的廣義重力模型,該模型將城市用地規(guī)劃的構成要素直接引入到交通規(guī)劃中,提出了廣義重力客流出行分布預測模型,以獲得區(qū)內(nèi)出行和區(qū)間出行一致的理論算法,改變傳統(tǒng)重力模型對小區(qū)內(nèi)的出行量預測精度偏低的問題,提高了交通規(guī)劃的科學性和合理性。提高了區(qū)內(nèi)出行可靠性。能夠為城市用地結構控制和交通需求管理提供決策支持。最后,結合我國城市和城市交通特征,提出了我國BRT系統(tǒng)綜合效益評估體系。一方面,基于微觀交通仿真技術建立了BRT系統(tǒng)預評估指標,為決策者和規(guī)劃者在建設BRT時提供理論依據(jù)和決策支持。另一方面,基于已建的交通檢測系統(tǒng),提出了BRT系統(tǒng)后評估指標,用于輔助評估和優(yōu)化BRT線網(wǎng)和運營管理等。在預評估階段,建立了基于微觀仿真的系統(tǒng)預評估策略,主要從運送能力和運營效率兩個層面出發(fā),提出可量化的評估指標；而在后評估階段,更加注重運量、土地利用價值提升、運行效率改善、經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境效益改善。尤其是在指標計算方面,摒棄了傳統(tǒng)以交通調(diào)查為主的評價方法,提出了利用車載GPS定位、運營調(diào)度、自動售票、非現(xiàn)場執(zhí)法和信號控制等系統(tǒng)獲取的交通數(shù)據(jù)作為指標計算的主要依據(jù),提升了評估的科學性、準確性、可行性。最后,以廣州市為例,結合城市特征,利用建立的評價模型評估了中山大道一段BRT系統(tǒng)的效益,針對發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題提出了解決方法。綜上所述,該論文從城市和城市交通特征出發(fā),以實例類比剖析了BRT和有軌電車的特性,創(chuàng)新性的研究了BRT在我國城市發(fā)展中的適應性,提出了客流出行需求預測模型和BRT走廊選址策略,建立了BRT系統(tǒng)效益分析預評估和后評價體系,構筑了整套較為完整的BRT系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃、設計、走廊選址和效益分析等理論,能夠為城市公交決策者和運營者提供理論和方法支撐。
[Abstract]:City public transport system has been identified as an important strategy to solve the city traffic congestion, and as the rapid transit system of large and medium volume and tram system as an important realization form, has been widely used in the world of the large and medium-sized city. Along with our country city travel needs of the population in the road traffic and grow with each passing day, resource supply the ability of tense situation, the development of car traffic patterns are unable to cope with the traffic load so huge, so public transport and car on the road resources in a fierce game. Especially in recent years, most of our city is traffic congestion, traffic accidents, air pollution and other problems plagued the city haze, green and sustainable public transport system is to enhance the basic the strategy of city development, the city is a large-scale planning and construction of the BRT system. According to the requirements of the current development of the BRT system. This paper focuses on the analysis of adaptive BRT system based on the characteristics of the city in our country, and the establishment of BRT system planning, site selection and evaluation methods. Mainly by consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literature and research achievements, summarizes the existing theories and methods of blank points and weak points, the comprehensive utilization of traffic planning, information theory, a systematic study of the adaptability of system engineering and the traffic simulation technology of BRT BRT, the analogy with the same level of tram, in order to promote and improve the BRT system planning and site selection, passenger demand forecasting, evaluation theory and evaluation system of pre and post development benefits. First of all, most of the city of BRT in our country and has the characteristics of tram system of analysis characteristics of the development of city and city, from the technical function, investment cost, energy consumption and environmental adaptability, and operation management, according to the actual system based on BRT and two analog class trams Mass transit system in the political, economic, traffic demand, road resources utilization of advantages and disadvantages, and analyzes the BRT and exist in the development of our trolley problem. Then, starting from the inner demand factors of city BRT system construction and the supply of external factors, focusing on the scale of city development level and the economy. Corridor traffic and travel characteristics, traffic conditions and other factors of city image and city traffic corridor. Based on the above indicators, using AHP method to establish the multi-objective decision model, establishes the method of mass rapid public cross ratio analysis of BRT formation, the adaptability of the system model. Compared with the existing methods, this research is based on the most of our city features and city traffic, the first analogy analysis of BRT and the advantages and disadvantages of the trolley, and in-depth study of the BRT system suitability analysis method, comprehensive development of the city With the level of economic scale, corridor traffic and travel characteristics, road traffic conditions and the city's image and internal demand factors, and the operation efficiency, investment cost, function technology and external supply factors, proposed the establishment of adaptive evaluation model using hierarchical weighted method based on the basic premise. Again, the location from the BRT corridor passenger demand forecasting starting to establish a prediction model of land structure entropy flow based on information entropy theory. Based on the forecast of passenger flow, established the BRT corridor location strategy, covering the city spatial factors, city land use, transit demand, road space structure, road network efficiency and other aspects. Put forward the function orientation and corridor planning method the location to determine the combination of candidate corridor, and then screened. According to the selection model proposed for screening index of passenger flow is the most important, the introduction of the land The generalized gravity model to predict the passenger demand structure entropy parameters. Compared with the traditional gravity model, the method based on the information entropy theory, the generalized gravity model established land structure entropy model and entropy parameters, the model elements of city land use planning directly into traffic planning, puts forward the generalized gravity of trip distribution in order to obtain the prediction model of area travel and travel theory consistent interval algorithm, change the traditional gravity model to travel to the area of the problem of low accuracy of prediction, and improve the transportation planning of science and rationality. Increase in the area of travel to reliability. The structure of land use control and traffic demand management to provide decision support for the city. Finally, combined with the characteristics of traffic of our country city and city, comprehensive benefits system in China BRT system assessment is put forward. On the one hand, the microscopic traffic simulation technology to establish a system based on BRT Evaluation index system, to provide a theoretical basis and decision support for decision makers and planners in the construction of BRT. On the other hand, the traffic detection system has been built based on the evaluation index of BRT system is put forward, for auxiliary assessment and optimization of BRT network and operation management. The evaluation stage in the pre established evaluation system pre based on microscopic simulation, mainly from the carrying capacity and operational efficiency of the two aspects, put forward the evaluation of quantitative indicators; and the assessment phase, pay more attention to traffic, enhance the value of land use, improve the operation efficiency, improve economic and environmental benefits. Especially in the calculation of the index, to abandon the traditional evaluation method in traffic the main investigation, proposed the use of vehicle GPS positioning, operation scheduling, automatic ticketing, traffic data acquisition and signal control of non site enforcement system as the main index calculated according to the evaluation, promotion The science, accuracy and feasibility. Finally, taking Guangzhou city as an example, combined with the characteristics of a city, making use of the established evaluation model to evaluate the BRT system of Zhongshan avenue a benefit, aimed at the problem of discovery methods are put forward. In summary, the paper from the city and city traffic characteristics of case analysis and analogy BRT have the characteristics of tram, innovative research of the BRT in the development of our city adaptability, proposed passenger travel demand forecasting model and BRT corridor location strategy, established the BRT system benefit analysis and evaluation system of pre evaluation and post, to build a complete set of BRT system planning, design, site selection and benefit analysis of the corridor the theory can provide theoretical and methodological support for decision makers and operators of city bus.

【學位授予單位】：東南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.17

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 沈昱;;快速公共交通系統(tǒng)(BRT)在浦東新區(qū)的應用前景分析[J];規(guī)劃師;2008年S1期

2 朱海玲;;常隆BRT客車的不同尋常之處[J];商用汽車;2008年01期

3 陳晨;;中國BRT客車之怪現(xiàn)象[J];汽車與配件;2009年21期

4 陸靜;馮靜;;因為專業(yè)所以領先——記常隆客車BRT探索之路[J];運輸經(jīng)理世界;2009年04期

5 陳晨;;BRT客車4大怪象[J];時代汽車;2009年07期

6 ;BRT車輛不止一種選擇 BRT客車價值回歸座談會在寧舉行[J];商用汽車新聞;2007年32期

7 李金花;;常隆BRT客車時尚登場[J];城市車輛;2008年01期

8 鄭宇;;宇通客車與鄭州BRT相映成輝[J];交通世界(運輸.車輛);2009年06期

9 陸靜;;濟南:以BRT建設提升公交治堵能力[J];運輸經(jīng)理世界;2010年08期

10 肖雄建;;濟南BRT公交實地調(diào)查[J];商用汽車;2012年13期

相關會議論文 前3條

1 魏中華;任福田;;中國城市快速公交系統(tǒng)(BRT)發(fā)展探討[A];2004城市規(guī)劃年會論文集（上）[C];2004年

2 王小磊;;BRT客車光學導航原理[A];“技術創(chuàng)新與核心能力建設”重慶汽車工程學會2006年會論文集[C];2006年

3 肖軍;鄒志全;尹強;張蓉;張曉華;毛成;;BRT高架橋停車站瀝青路面病害及處治措施探討[A];成都市“兩快兩射”快速路系統(tǒng)工程論文專輯[C];2014年

相關重要報紙文章 前10條

1 本報記者 邱寶暉　同安記者站 陳慶益 葉文彬;BRT年底進同安城區(qū)[N];廈門日報;2009年

2 席蕾;自主BRT客車規(guī)�；鸩絒N];中國交通報;2009年

3 本報記者 邱寶暉　同安記者站 楊心亮 葉文彬;BRT挺進同安激活廈門商貿(mào)次中心[N];廈門日報;2009年

4 周明;適應國情 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟型BRT客車[N];中國交通報;2007年

5 本報記者 吳涵;中國客車的BRT機遇[N];機電商報;2008年

6 郭宇航;中通首輛BRT客車下線[N];中國工業(yè)報;2007年

7 記者 方晴　羅樺琳 通訊員 溫健麟 馬江楠 李薇;廣州BRT功高摘聯(lián)合國“燈塔”獎[N];廣州日報;2012年

8 黃黎黎;“國檢BRT”服務品牌的交響樂章[N];江蘇法制報;2013年

9 本報記者 常虹;50輛大容量青年客車駛上BRT專用車道[N];中國工業(yè)報;2006年

10 記者 李林;明年上半年有望開通BRT[N];河南日報;2008年

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 郭曉峰;基于我國城市特征的BRT適應性研究與規(guī)劃設計[D];東南大學;2015年

相關碩士學位論文 前6條

1 鄧瑞萍;基于元胞自動機的BRT優(yōu)先交叉口仿真研究[D];蘭州交通大學;2015年

2 陳兵;快速公交（BRT）系統(tǒng)站點設置研究[D];華南理工大學;2014年

3 潘濤;廣州快速公交系統(tǒng)（BRT）試驗線個案分析[D];華南理工大學;2011年

4 韓俊平;基于快速公交（BRT）優(yōu)先的交叉口信號優(yōu)化研究[D];華中科技大學;2007年

5 戴英姿;快速公交（BRT）系統(tǒng)的交叉口優(yōu)化控制與設計[D];西南交通大學;2005年

6 馮磊;BRT客車鉸接裝置及整車有限元分析[D];青島理工大學;2009年

，

本文編號：1454174