本文關鍵詞： 公共交通 客流信息 動態(tài)調度 行程時間 效益分析　出處：《長安大學》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著我國綜合國力的不斷提升,城市公共交通事業(yè)得以飛速發(fā)展,但與國外先進國家和地區(qū)相比,尚存在較大差距,集中表現(xiàn)在信息化、智能化管理與應用水平低下,因此改善城市公共交通環(huán)境、實現(xiàn)城市公共交通的動態(tài)調度管理,具有重要的理論意義和實用價值。城市公交動態(tài)調度管理依托數(shù)字化信息采集、處理和網(wǎng)絡通信技術,綜合運用GIS(地理信息系統(tǒng))、通信、網(wǎng)絡、多媒體及計算機等技術,對城市公共交通系統(tǒng)的信息采集、存儲與發(fā)布、運營調度及公交優(yōu)先等進行網(wǎng)絡化管理,實現(xiàn)客流變化和車輛運行狀況的實時監(jiān)測和公交資源的優(yōu)化配置、合理調度。本文探討了城市公交動態(tài)調度管理的結構框架,并就支持系統(tǒng)功能實現(xiàn)的相關技術方法進行了著重探討,旨在通過對動態(tài)管理技術的研究、探索,為我國廣大城市提高公共交通管理水平,改善居民出行環(huán)境,以解決城市交通擁堵問題,實現(xiàn)城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,提供一定的借鑒依據(jù)和參考。本文從城市公交客流的基本特征出發(fā),以西安市的多條線路為分析對象,對大中城市公交客流的時間分布特征、空間分布特征和區(qū)域分布特征進行了分類總結,對城市公交線路的增長特征進行了闡述,為城市公交動態(tài)調度系統(tǒng)的構建提供了基本理論依據(jù)。應用公交IC卡數(shù)據(jù)對線路客流信息進行了分析、推算,并引入改進的灰色馬爾可夫模型來預測線網(wǎng)客流信息,運用最小二乘法和有限差分得到了模型中參數(shù)a、b的待定向量,同時引入邊值修正因子和馬爾可夫精確化來減弱輸入數(shù)據(jù)離散、波動過度的不利影響,提高了線網(wǎng)客流的預測精度。同時,從提高公交服務水平的角度,提出了面向乘客的公交動態(tài)信息的發(fā)布內(nèi)容、發(fā)布載體和信息傳遞途徑,分析了發(fā)布形式和信息更新方式�？紤]道路條件、交通負荷、車輛因素、駕駛員等多種影響因素,從路段正常行駛時間、停車時間和延誤時間三個角度入手,建立了基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡的公交車輛行程時間預測模型。以西安市207路公交車為例,通過調用Matlab軟件中的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡工具箱,并運用相關調查數(shù)據(jù)對網(wǎng)絡進行訓練,并運用檢測樣本對模型進行檢驗,將行程時間的預測結果和實際值進行對比分析,分析結果驗證了模型的有效性和準確性,為面向乘客的公交動態(tài)信息發(fā)布系統(tǒng)和公交運營調度管理系統(tǒng)提供了支持技術和理論依據(jù)。在對公交調度系統(tǒng)模型和調度形式進行分析介紹的基礎上,考慮公交線路站點乘客需求,以乘客候車時間延誤最小及車廂內(nèi)滿載率較均勻為優(yōu)化目標,建立了公交車發(fā)車時間表模型,并以車廂滿載率為控制參數(shù),對模型進行優(yōu)化求解,確定高峰時刻的最優(yōu)發(fā)車時間,同時提出了車輛動態(tài)調度的分析模型。以西安市13路公交車輛的采集數(shù)據(jù)對該模型進行有效性檢驗,分析結果表明應用該模型制定公交車輛發(fā)車時刻表,進行車輛運行調度,能夠實現(xiàn)線路客流的均勻分布,有效降低乘客的候車時間成本,提高調度效率,并且在線路車輛不足的條件下,運用車輛調度模型進行車輛調度管理,可以快速恢復線路車輛的車頭間距,有一定實用價值。最后,針對公交動態(tài)管理效益分析的實際需要,提出了直接效益和間接效益的分析指標,具體討論了減少誤乘損失、票價降低、出行時間節(jié)約、公交分擔率提高、運輸費用成本節(jié)約及減少交通擁堵所產(chǎn)生的綜合效益,并以西安市為例,進行了案例分析,計算結果表明實施數(shù)字化信息管理效益顯著,展示了良好的應用前景。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with China's comprehensive national strength increasing, city public transportation industry has been developing rapidly, but compared with foreign advanced countries and regions, there are still large gaps, focus on information technology, intelligent management and application level is low, thus improving the city public traffic environment, the dynamic scheduling management of city public transportation, has the important theoretical significance and practical value. The dynamic scheduling management of city bus based on digital information acquisition, processing and network communication technology, the integrated use of GIS (Geographic Information System), communication, network, multimedia and computer technology, information collection of city public transportation system, storage and distribution, operation scheduling and bus priority network etc. management, scheduling optimization, real-time monitoring and public resources to achieve the operation status of passenger flow and vehicle. This paper discusses the city bus dynamic Framework of state management, and were focused on support technology to achieve the function of the system, through the research on the dynamic management technology, exploration, for the majority of city of our country to improve the management level of public transport, improve the residents travel environment, in order to solve the problem of traffic congestion in the City, realize the sustainable development of the city, to provide a certain reference and reference. This article from the basic characteristics of city bus passenger departure, with multiple lines of Xi'an city as the research object, the distribution characteristics of large and medium city transit time distribution and regional spatial distribution characteristics were classified, growth characteristics of city bus lines are described, provides the basic the theoretical basis for constructing the dynamic scheduling system of city bus. Application of IC card data is analyzed, the passenger information calculation, and the introduction of improved grey The Markov model to predict the network traffic information, using the least squares method and finite difference are the parameters in the model a, undetermined vector B, while introducing the boundary value correction factor and Markov accurate input data to reduce the adverse effects of discrete, excessive volatility, improve the prediction accuracy of line network passenger flow. At the same time, from the bus the service level angle, proposed the transit passenger oriented dynamic information publication, publishing carrier and information transmission way, analyzes the release form and information update method. Considering the road conditions, traffic load, vehicle drivers and other factors, influencing factors, from the normal road travel time, three angle parking time and delay time firstly, to establish a prediction model of bus travel time based on BP neural network. The 207 bus in Xi'an city as an example, through the neural network call in Matlab software With the box, and used to train the network related survey data, and using the test samples to test the model, the prediction results of travel time and the actual value of the comparative analysis, the analysis results verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the model, provide technical support and theoretical basis for the dynamic transit channel for the passenger information release system and bus dispatching management system. In the bus scheduling model and scheduling form analysis is presented on the basis of considering the bus stations, passenger demand, passenger waiting time to the minimum delay and the bus vehicle load as the optimization goal, set up a bus timetable model, and car load ratio as control parameter, optimization to solve the model to determine the optimal departure time, peak time, and puts forward the analysis model of dynamic scheduling of vehicles. In 13 Xi'an road public transit vehicle Collecting data for the model validation, the results indicate that the application of the model to develop the bus timetable, vehicle operation scheduling, to achieve uniform distribution of passenger flow, reduce the waiting time cost of passengers, improve the scheduling efficiency, and the circuit of the vehicle under the condition of insufficient use of vehicle scheduling model for vehicle scheduling management, you can quickly restore the line spacing of the vehicle, and has certain practical value. Finally, according to the actual needs of the dynamic analysis of bus management benefits, put forward the analysis indexes of direct benefits and indirect benefits, discussed to reduce the error by loss, lower fares, travel time saving, bus sharing rate, the comprehensive benefits of transport costs cost savings and reduce traffic congestion caused by taking Xi'an city as an example, has carried on the case analysis, the calculation results show that the implementation of digital information management. The benefit is remarkable, and it shows a good prospect of application.

【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.17

【引證文獻】

相關會議論文 前1條

1 楊兆升;林賜云;龔勃文;;公交信號優(yōu)先系統(tǒng)框架研究[A];2007第三屆中國智能交通年會論文集[C];2007年

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本文編號：1445010