本文關(guān)鍵詞： 大型橋梁 施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 綜合原因論 LEC 不確定網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在國內(nèi)外橋梁工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,以大型橋梁工程項(xiàng)目為背景,就項(xiàng)目施工期間風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別、估計(jì)、評價(jià)及控制等問題進(jìn)行了較為系統(tǒng)的研究,并取得以下成果:(1)結(jié)合大型橋梁的施工特點(diǎn),給出了橋梁施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義;在綜合原因論的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了橋梁施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)致因模型,并建立了大型橋梁施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的流程圖,為大型橋梁施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作提供依據(jù)。(2)結(jié)合橋梁的施工特點(diǎn),針對常用的專家調(diào)查法主觀因素誤差較大的缺點(diǎn),提出了基于事故統(tǒng)計(jì)的專家調(diào)查法。同時(shí),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故的統(tǒng)計(jì)有助于橋梁施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)據(jù)庫的構(gòu)建,為企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作提供豐富的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),推動(dòng)量化方法在我國風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作中的應(yīng)用。(3)針對傳統(tǒng)的LEC(作業(yè)條件法)存在的缺點(diǎn),根據(jù)我國橋梁施工有關(guān)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、法規(guī)和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究,結(jié)合大型橋梁施工特點(diǎn),提出一種能更好應(yīng)用在大型橋梁施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)中的方法:改進(jìn)LEC法。該方法將管理因素作為折減因子引入到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)中,有效反映工程實(shí)際中安全管理工作的重要性;其次,該方法對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故后果嚴(yán)重程度的估計(jì),將人員傷亡以外的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失、環(huán)境破壞和工期延誤都考慮在內(nèi),確保估計(jì)結(jié)果更科學(xué)準(zhǔn)確。(4)對于改進(jìn)的LEC法,通過運(yùn)用MATLAB進(jìn)行編程統(tǒng)計(jì)其評估結(jié)果D值的分布,并結(jié)合相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)及《公路橋梁和隧道工程施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估指南》劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),建立了改進(jìn)LEC法評估結(jié)果等級劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),從而判斷出一般風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源和重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源。(5)針對大型橋梁施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題的復(fù)雜性和不確定性,分析現(xiàn)有評價(jià)方法的不足,提出一種定量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)方法:不確定網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法。運(yùn)用該方法對重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià),確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素的權(quán)重,為制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施提供依據(jù)。(6)結(jié)合我國橋梁施工特點(diǎn)和管理現(xiàn)狀,給出了幾種重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的控制措施。
[Abstract]:Based on the research of bridge engineering risk at home and abroad and taking the large-scale bridge engineering project as the background, this paper makes a systematic study on the problems of risk identification, estimation, evaluation and control during the construction period of the project. The following results are obtained: 1) combined with the characteristics of large bridge construction, the definition of bridge construction risk is given. On the basis of the theory of comprehensive cause, the paper constructs the risk causing model of bridge construction safety, and establishes the flow chart of large bridge construction safety risk management. To provide the basis for the construction risk management of large bridges. (2) combined with the characteristics of the bridge construction, aiming at the shortcomings of the common expert investigation method, the subjective factor error is large. The method of expert investigation based on accident statistics is put forward. At the same time, the statistics of risk accidents is helpful to the construction of bridge construction safety risk database and provides abundant basic data for the risk management of enterprises. To promote the application of quantitative method in risk management in China, aiming at the shortcomings of traditional LECs, according to the relevant standards, regulations and safety risks of bridge construction in China. According to the characteristics of large bridge construction, an improved LEC method is proposed, which can be better applied to the risk estimation of large bridge construction. The management factor is introduced into the risk estimation as a reduction factor. Effectively reflect the importance of safety management in engineering practice; Secondly, the method takes into account the direct economic loss, the environmental damage and the delay in the construction period. To ensure that the estimated results are more scientific and accurate. (4) for the improved LEC method, the distribution of the D value of the evaluation results is calculated by using MATLAB programming. Combined with the related literature and the "Road, Bridge and Tunnel Construction Safety risk Assessment Guide", the classification standard of the improved LEC method evaluation results is established. Thus judging the general risk source and the major risk source.) aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the safety risk problem of large bridge construction, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the existing evaluation methods. In this paper, a quantitative risk assessment method, uncertain network analysis method, is proposed, which is used to evaluate the major risk sources and determine the weight of risk factors. According to the characteristics of bridge construction and the present situation of management in China, several control measures of major risk sources are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U445.1

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