本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于ART及多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)均衡模型　出處：《管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 預(yù)期后悔 多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避 期望效用 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策 路徑選擇

【摘要】：隨著對(duì)交通系統(tǒng)不確定性認(rèn)識(shí)的深入,以絕對(duì)理性為基礎(chǔ)的"期望效用理論"在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境下的路徑選擇分析中顯示出局限性,而"預(yù)期后悔理論"則為之提供了新的分析思路.將預(yù)期后悔理論應(yīng)用到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境下的路徑選擇分析中,將出行者一致風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的假設(shè)擴(kuò)展到多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避,建立了基于后悔理論及多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避出行特征的交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)隨機(jī)用戶均衡變分不等式模型,并給出了求解算法.通過(guò)算例分析發(fā)現(xiàn),后悔心理對(duì)出行者的路徑選擇并不總是顯著的.在非風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境及極端風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境中,后悔心理對(duì)出行者的路徑選擇影響是微弱的,但是當(dāng)環(huán)境處于極端風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與非風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間時(shí),后悔心理對(duì)出行者路徑選擇有著較為顯著的影響.
[Abstract]:With the uncertainty of traffic system further understanding, with absolute rationality "expected utility theory" in the risk environment, path choice analysis display limits, and provides a new analysis method of "expected Regret Theory" for the expected regret. Theory should be used to route environment risk analysis the traveler, consistent risk aversion hypothesis is extended to multiple risk aversion, established the traffic network stochastic user equilibrium theory and multi regret risk aversion travel features based on variational inequality model, and give the algorithm. Through the example analysis found that the regret of traveler's route choice is not always significant. Environmental risk and environmental risk in non extreme, regret is weak on the traveler's route choice, but when the environment is between the extreme risk and non risk, regret on the psychological The traveler's path selection has a more significant impact.

【作者單位】： 上海理工大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;上海交通大學(xué)安泰經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(51478266) 上海市自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(15ZR1429200) 上海理工大學(xué)博士啟動(dòng)基金資助項(xiàng)目(BSQD201407)
【分類號(hào)】：U491.13
【正文快照】： 0引言出行者路徑選擇行為對(duì)城市交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)流量的時(shí)空分布有著重要影響,對(duì)出行者路徑選擇行為進(jìn)行研究分析是制定城市交通規(guī)劃及相關(guān)交通政策的基礎(chǔ)和依據(jù).出行者路徑選擇過(guò)程實(shí)際上是種決策過(guò)程,按照決策對(duì)象的特征可將決策具體分為確定型決策與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策.確定型決策的前提是決，

本文編號(hào)：1402429