【摘要】：沛縣是我國東部一座典型的礦業(yè)城市，1970年代末以來，沛縣礦業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展帶動了當?shù)卣w經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展和城市建設，但在經(jīng)歷了30余年的高強度開采后，沛縣礦業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)和城市發(fā)展也面臨著諸多問題，亟待產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型。本文試圖梳理沛縣作為一座典型礦業(yè)城市的城市空間演變歷程，并探討產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型期城市規(guī)劃的應對策略。由于礦業(yè)城市的發(fā)展與轉型存在一定的共性問題，本文的研究既可對沛縣城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供指導，也對大量其他礦業(yè)城市實施產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型具有一定的借鑒意義。對此，本文在北京城市空間發(fā)展分析模型（BUDEM）的基礎上構建了沛縣城市空間演變CA模型，以產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型期沛縣城市空間演變的主要影響因子作為模型空間變量，根據(jù)中心城區(qū)用地歷史數(shù)據(jù)識別模型參數(shù)，模型模擬結果準確度達到70%以上。以此模型為基礎，，本文設定了自然發(fā)展情景、政策情景與2011版沛縣總體規(guī)劃方案情景三類情景對未來一段時期沛縣城市空間演變進行情景分析，得出了在產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、城市建設、資源利用與環(huán)境保護方面有利于促進產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型期規(guī)劃實施的相應政策建議，并根據(jù)模擬結果對本模型的準確度、意義及應用擴展進行了討論。
[Abstract]:Peixian is a typical mining city in the east of China. Since the late 1970s, the development of mining industry in Peixian has led to the overall economic and social development and urban construction, but after more than 30 years of high-intensity mining, Peixian mining industry and urban development are also facing many problems, the urgent need for industrial transformation. This paper attempts to comb Peixian as a typical mining city of urban spatial evolution, and to explore the industrial transformation of urban planning strategies. Because there are some common problems in the development and transformation of mining cities, the research in this paper can not only provide guidance for the sustainable development of Peixian city, but also have certain reference significance for a large number of other mining cities to implement industrial transformation. In this paper, based on the Beijing urban spatial development analysis model (BUDEM), the CA model of Peixian urban spatial evolution is constructed. The main influencing factors of Peixian urban spatial evolution in the industrial transformation period are taken as the model spatial variables. According to the historical data of urban land use, the accuracy of model simulation is over 70%. Based on this model, this paper sets up natural development scenarios, policy scenarios and 2011 Peixian master plan scenarios for the future period of Peixian urban spatial evolution situation analysis, and obtained in the industrial development, urban construction, Resource utilization and environmental protection are helpful to promote the implementation of industrial transformation planning. Based on the simulation results, the accuracy, significance and application expansion of the model are discussed.
【學位授予單位】：清華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F129.9

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