【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界一直以來(lái)都比較熱衷于研究消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系問(wèn)題。然而，大多數(shù)是對(duì)該問(wèn)題進(jìn)行規(guī)范分析,較少有人進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,而且現(xiàn)有的實(shí)證分析主要集中于兩個(gè)問(wèn)題:其一是關(guān)于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響；其二是關(guān)于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。把三者的關(guān)系割裂為兩個(gè)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行研究，并不能如實(shí)地反映消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系�；诖�，本文把消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三者之間的關(guān)系當(dāng)作一個(gè)系統(tǒng)，從理論和實(shí)際的角度，分析該系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的作用機(jī)制，即三者內(nèi)在的本質(zhì)關(guān)系。 首先，本文從理論的角度分析，得出消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)兩兩之間具有相互影響、互為因果關(guān)系的結(jié)論。 然后，，選擇城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民的恩格爾系數(shù)作為衡量消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的指標(biāo)，選擇第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重作為衡量產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的指標(biāo)，選擇剔除價(jià)格因素之后的GDP的可比價(jià)作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的指標(biāo)，以江蘇省為例，通過(guò)建立VECM模型，進(jìn)一步實(shí)證分析消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)互動(dòng)關(guān)系。 最終，協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)證明江蘇省消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系；脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解又進(jìn)一步闡釋了消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的短期動(dòng)態(tài)波動(dòng)關(guān)系。 因此，理論分析和實(shí)證研究得出了一致結(jié)論：消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)兩兩之間存在雙向作用關(guān)系。消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，不僅能帶動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)，而且還能進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；同樣，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)，在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)，又反過(guò)來(lái)影響消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整；而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也同樣有助于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)。
[Abstract]:Economists have been keen to study the relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. However, most of them are normative analysis of the problem, few people do empirical analysis, and the existing empirical analysis mainly focuses on two problems: one is about the impact of the adjustment of consumption structure on the upgrading of industrial structure; The second is about the impact of industrial structure upgrading on economic growth. The relationship between them is divided into two problems, which can not reflect the inner relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Based on this, this paper regards the relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth as a system. From the angle of theory and practice, this paper analyzes the internal action mechanism of the system, that is, the intrinsic essential relationship among the three. Firstly, from the perspective of theory, this paper draws the conclusion that the consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have mutual influence and cause and effect. Then, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents is chosen as the index to measure the consumption structure, the secondary industry and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP as the index to measure the industrial structure. This paper selects the comparable price of GDP after excluding the price factor as the index to measure the economic growth. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, through establishing the VECM model, the dynamic interaction among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth is analyzed empirically. Finally, the cointegration test proves that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. Impulse response function and variance decomposition further explain the short-term dynamic fluctuation relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Therefore, theoretical analysis and empirical research have reached a consistent conclusion: consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have a two-way relationship. The adjustment of consumption structure can not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also further promote economic growth; similarly, the upgrading of industrial structure not only promotes economic growth, but also affects the adjustment of consumption structure. And economic growth is also helpful to the adjustment of consumption structure and upgrading of industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F126.1;F127;F279.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 蘇大鵬;;安徽省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的實(shí)證分析[J];懷化學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2015年08期

本文編號(hào)：2343806