【摘要】：著眼于中國綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型之路的科學(xué)預(yù)測與分析,借鑒傳統(tǒng)環(huán)境負(fù)荷模型以及資源與經(jīng)濟(jì)脫鉤理論、區(qū)位熵理論等,提出基于生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)理論的有關(guān)綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)評價模型。應(yīng)用該模型計(jì)算出2001—2010年全球及中國有關(guān)綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),依照未來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會發(fā)展規(guī)劃目標(biāo),預(yù)計(jì)"十二五"末期中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的資源消耗及環(huán)境損失成本、人均綠色GDP將分別達(dá)到3.11×1012美元、0.37×104美元,生態(tài)負(fù)荷強(qiáng)度、資源脫鉤指數(shù)及綠色GDP的區(qū)位熵指數(shù)分別為0.38、0.66、75;2020年中國綠色GDP的區(qū)位熵指數(shù)將超越全球平均水平、2024年人均GDP將突破1萬美元關(guān)口步入中等發(fā)達(dá)國家行列。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明中國生態(tài)系統(tǒng)壓力逐年降低、資源利用效率、環(huán)境績效與經(jīng)濟(jì)效益同步提高,逐漸在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)綠色轉(zhuǎn)型過程中發(fā)揮重要作用;未來,中國仍需秉承"共同但有區(qū)別的責(zé)任"原則,處理好與其他國家的權(quán)責(zé)紛爭;同時積極推進(jìn)節(jié)能減排、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整工作,進(jìn)一步協(xié)調(diào)好城鄉(xiāng)之間、區(qū)域之間經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展與自然資源及生態(tài)環(huán)境的關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:This paper focuses on the scientific prediction and analysis of the road of green economy transformation in China, draws lessons from the traditional environmental load model, the decoupling theory of resources and economy, the theory of location entropy, and puts forward the evaluation model of green economy index based on ecosystem service theory. The model is used to calculate the global and China green economy indexes for the period 2001-2010. According to the future economic and social development planning goals of China, the resource consumption and environmental loss cost in China's economic development at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan are estimated. The per capita green GDP will reach 3.11 脳 1012 US dollars and 0.37 脳 104.The ecological load intensity, the resource decoupling index and the location entropy index of green GDP will be 0.38 脳 1012 and 0.37 脳 10 ~ 4, respectively. In 2020, the location entropy index of China's green GDP will exceed the global average, and the per capita GDP in 2024 will exceed the $10, 000 mark and become a moderately developed country. The results show that the pressure of Chinese ecosystem decreases year by year, the efficiency of resource utilization, environmental performance and economic benefit increase simultaneously, and gradually play an important role in the process of global economic green transformation. In the future, China still needs to adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", and deal with the rights and responsibilities disputes with other countries; At the same time, we should actively promote energy saving and emission reduction, adjust the economic structure, and further coordinate the relationship between economic and social development, natural resources and ecological environment between urban and rural areas and between regions.
【作者單位】： 遼寧師范大學(xué)城市與環(huán)境學(xué)院;遼寧省水文局;
【基金】：教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究規(guī)劃基金(14YJAZH112) 高等學(xué)校博士學(xué)科點(diǎn)專項(xiàng)科研基金(20122136110003) 遼寧省社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃基金(L13BJL019) 遼寧經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展課題(2014lslktzixxjx-06)
【分類號】：F124.5

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