本文選題：中部崛起 + 皖北地區(qū)　； 參考：《安徽大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：皖北地區(qū)是安徽省的一個重要組成部分,它是安徽省重要的糧食產(chǎn)區(qū)、能源材料基地,人口眾多,區(qū)域廣闊,其經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展影響著安徽省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的速度、和諧社會建設(shè)的深度。2008年安徽省委、省政府出臺了《關(guān)于加快皖北和沿淮部分市縣的若干政策建議》,2010年安徽省委、省政府正式出臺《關(guān)于進一步加快皖北地區(qū)發(fā)展的若干意見》,2012年還出臺了《加快皖北地區(qū)發(fā)展“十二五”規(guī)劃》,這一系列動作是安徽省貫徹落實科學(xué)發(fā)展觀、推進區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的重大戰(zhàn)略舉措�！笆濉笔峭畋钡貐^(qū)黃金發(fā)展期,加快發(fā)展的機遇前所未有。從宏觀政策看,國家深入實施促進中部地區(qū)崛起和建設(shè)中原經(jīng)濟區(qū)戰(zhàn)略,安徽省把加快皖北地區(qū)發(fā)展放在區(qū)域發(fā)展總體戰(zhàn)略的突出位置,給予特殊政策支持；從產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移看,經(jīng)濟全球化深入發(fā)展,沿海發(fā)達地區(qū)向內(nèi)地產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢明顯,皖江示范區(qū)帶動效應(yīng)持續(xù)增強,南北區(qū)域合作不斷深化,有利于皖北地區(qū)發(fā)揮比較優(yōu)勢,積極承接產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,全面提升開放型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和開發(fā)開放水平；從發(fā)展階段看,皖北地區(qū)正處于工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化加速推進階段,持續(xù)投入效應(yīng)不斷釋放,對外形象逐步提升,比較優(yōu)勢和后發(fā)優(yōu)勢日益凸顯。 對外向型經(jīng)濟的研究,經(jīng)濟學(xué)家從不同角度探討了外向型經(jīng)濟中外貿(mào)、外資等因素對一國經(jīng)濟增長的影響,并在此基礎(chǔ)上選取相應(yīng)指標(biāo)對經(jīng)濟增長的影響進行了經(jīng)驗和實證分析,外向型經(jīng)濟對經(jīng)濟增長的促進作用得到了論證。目前,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對皖北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的研究多是在定性分析上,特別對皖北地區(qū)外向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的定量研究還沒有。雖然皖北地區(qū)是一個內(nèi)陸區(qū)域,外向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)�？傮w不高,但其對經(jīng)濟增長的作用是毋庸置疑的。 本文以皖北地區(qū)外向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展為主題,采用文獻研究法和規(guī)范分析法與實證分析法相結(jié)合的方法進行研究。首先對外向型經(jīng)濟的基本理論進行闡述；從皖北地區(qū)實施外向型經(jīng)濟戰(zhàn)略的基礎(chǔ)理論出發(fā),結(jié)合皖北經(jīng)濟資源優(yōu)勢,介紹皖北地區(qū)的國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展概況和外向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展概況。其次通過從安徽省統(tǒng)計年鑒和各市的國民經(jīng)濟與社會發(fā)展統(tǒng)計公報查詢皖北地區(qū)的外向型經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)：出口額、進口額、實際利用外資額,分別從縱向(時間)與橫向(皖北地區(qū)和安徽省之間)分析比較皖北地區(qū)外向型經(jīng)濟狀況,發(fā)現(xiàn)皖北地區(qū)對外貿(mào)易額、實際利用外資額占安徽省總額的比重遠遠沒有達到皖北地區(qū)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值占安徽省國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重,可以知道皖北地區(qū)的外向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展還低于安徽省的發(fā)展平均水平；還計算了皖北地區(qū)的外向型經(jīng)濟測度指標(biāo),分別從縱向(時間)與橫向(皖北地區(qū)和安徽省之間)來分析與安徽省外向型經(jīng)濟測度指標(biāo)之間差距。第三,選取國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值作為皖北地區(qū)國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn),對皖北地區(qū)進出口額、實際利用外資額和皖北地區(qū)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值,運用ADF法對進行時間序列數(shù)列的平穩(wěn)性檢驗,進而采用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗方法進行時間序列數(shù)列的協(xié)整檢驗,最后建立誤差修正模型,并進行格蘭杰檢驗,來驗證皖北地區(qū)外向型經(jīng)濟對當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟的作用。第四,在前面的量化分析基礎(chǔ)上,采用與定性分析相結(jié)合的方法,分析了皖北地區(qū)外向型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟的積極影響與消極影響。最后,根據(jù)前面模型得出的結(jié)論及影響分析,為更好的發(fā)展皖北地區(qū)外向型經(jīng)濟從而提高安徽省整體經(jīng)濟水平,從擴大對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模、擴大招商引資規(guī)模、開發(fā)人文景觀吸引國外游客和積極開展國際合作四個方面提出自己的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The northern area is an important part of Anhui Province, which is the major grain producing areas in Anhui Province, energy and material base, large population, vast area, its economic development affects the speed of economic development in Anhui Province, the depth of.2008 in the construction of a harmonious society of Anhui Province, the provincial government issued "on some policies and Anhui in some cities and counties to speed up the proposal >, 2010 Anhui provincial Party committee, the provincial government issued" on further accelerate the rapid development of the region a number of opinions ", 2012 also issued a" speed up the development of the "12th Five-Year" plan > Northern Anhui, this series of actions is the implementation of Anhui province Scientific Outlook on Development, major strategic initiatives to promote regional coordinated development. "12th Five-Year is the golden period of development of Northern Anhui, accelerate the development of the hitherto unknown opportunities. From a macro perspective, the rise of the Central Plains and promote the implementation of the construction of the central region by the state deeply The strategic economic zone in Anhui Province, the prominent position to accelerate the development in the area of the overall strategy for regional development, give special policy support; the shift from the industrial perspective, in-depth development of economic globalization, the developed coastal region to the mainland industrial transfer trend obviously, Wanjiang demonstration area driving effect continued to strengthen, and regional cooperation is deepening, in favor of Anhui regional comparative advantages, and actively undertake industrial transfer, promote the open economy development and the development level; from the stage of development, in Northern Anhui Province is in the industrialization stage, accelerating the urbanization and modernization of agriculture, sustainable investment effects continue to release, and gradually improve the external image, comparative advantage and advantage has become increasingly prominent.
The export-oriented economic research, economists discussed foreign trade export-oriented economy from different angles, foreign investment and other factors on the impact of a country's economic growth, and on this basis, select the appropriate indicators of experience and empirical analysis of the impact on economic growth, export-oriented economy on economic growth has been demonstrated to promote the role of current. Scholars at home and abroad, on the northern of Anhui economy is more on the qualitative analysis, especially the quantitative research on the export-oriented economic development of Northern Anhui yet. Although the northern region is an inland region, the development of export-oriented economy of scale is not high, but it is no doubt that the effect on economic growth.
In this paper, the export-oriented economic development of Northern Anhui as the theme, the research method of using the method of literature research, normative analysis and empirical analysis method of combining the foreign oriented economy. Firstly, the basic theory expounded from the basic theory of Northern Anhui; implementation of export-oriented economic strategy, combined with the characters of economic resources, the development and the export-oriented economic development of national economy in north of Anhui Province. Secondly by querying the export-oriented economy data in Northern Anhui from the national economic and social development statistical bulletin and statistical yearbook of Anhui Province: exports, imports, actual utilization of foreign capital, respectively, from the vertical (time) and transverse (between the northern Anhui and Anhui province) comparative analysis of export-oriented economy in northern area, found in Northern Anhui foreign trade volume, the actual utilization of foreign capital of Anhui Province, the proportion of the total is far from The northern region's GDP accounted for the proportion of GDP in Anhui Province, we can know the development of export-oriented economy in northern areas is below the average level of Anhui province and the development of export-oriented economy; measure index of Northern Anhui are calculated, respectively from the vertical (time) and transverse (between the northern Anhui and Anhui province) to analyze the gap between the index and the export-oriented economy of Anhui province. Third, selection of GDP as the development of the national economy in Northern Anhui measure of Northern Anhui Import and export volume, the actual utilization of foreign capital and the northern region's gross domestic product, by using the method of ADF testing the stationarity of the time series sequence, and then use the cointegration test Johansen cointegration test method for time series sequence, finally establishes the error correction model and Grainger test, to verify the northern areas of export-oriented economy of the local The economy. Fourth, in front of the quantitative analysis based on the method of combining with qualitative analysis, analyzes the positive influence the development of the northern areas of export-oriented economy and the negative impact on the local economy. Finally, according to the previous model analyzed result and influence, for the better development of export-oriented economy to improve in Northern Anhui the level of overall economy in Anhui Province, from the expansion of foreign trade, expand the scale of investment, the development of cultural landscape to attract foreign tourists and put forward some policy suggestions in four aspects to actively carry out international cooperation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127

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