本文選題：穩(wěn)增長　切入點：熱錢流出　出處：《經濟研究參考》2014年46期

【摘要】：2014年第二季度,發(fā)達經濟體總體上企穩(wěn)回升,美聯(lián)儲退出量化寬松(QE3)政策可能在2014年10月正式退出,并可能于2015年二季度前后首次加息。同時,日本與歐洲正在積極采取寬松的政策或措施,穩(wěn)定經濟和國內金融市場。值得注意的是,由于下半年美國經濟復蘇、美國正式退出量化寬松的貨幣政策(QE3),我國在下半年可能會面臨一定程度的熱錢流出壓力,國內貨幣政策應該對此提早做好政策儲備。2014年二季度,我國GDP同比增長7.5%,總體來說較之一季度溫和改善。隨著一系列穩(wěn)增長措施加強落實、海外經濟復蘇帶動我國出口,我們對全年完成7.5%左右的增長目標有信心。我們預測我國2014年第三、第四季度GDP同比增速分別為7.5%和7.6%,全年GDP同比增速為7.5%。這一預測的核心基準假設為:下半年房地產增速逐漸回落至10%,消費增速穩(wěn)定在12%,出口名義增速為7.5%,基建投資增速為28%。財政政策應主要從以下三個方面來完成下半年保增長、調結構的總任務:(1)繼續(xù)擴大地方政府債券自發(fā)自還試點范圍,保障基建投資財政資金來源;(2)加快建立跨年預算平衡機制,在不增加當年赤字的情況下,將一部分2015年的預算資金在本年度使用;(3)實施消費稅改革,降低一些必需消費品的高稅率,適度鼓勵必需品消費。實現(xiàn)成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的經濟體,具有一個共同的特征,就是能夠提供一個具有持續(xù)激勵,但又具有公開透明的監(jiān)督機制,從而促使社會縱向流動性加快,避免出現(xiàn)社會階層的固化。因此,化解經濟發(fā)展中的種種不平衡,促進社會縱向流動,可能并不在于一時的經濟增長得失,而在于如何適應經濟增長新常態(tài),如何測算適度的新常態(tài)增速,以及在這一穩(wěn)健增速下進行一系列的制度改革。我們主要從四個方面:(1)潛在增速測算;(2)全面建成小康社會的總體目標;(3)目前經濟社會發(fā)展環(huán)境要求;(4)我國發(fā)展中面臨的各種約束,測算我國未來經濟增長面臨的新常態(tài)增速。總體而言,我們認為GDP增速的新常態(tài)將從目前的7.5%左右,逐步下降到2020年的6.0%~6.5%。
[Abstract]:Developed economies generally recovered in the second quarter of 2014, with the Fed withdrawing QE3 from quantitative easing in October 2014 and possibly raising interest rates for the first time in the second quarter of 2015. Japan and Europe are actively adopting loose policies or measures to stabilize the economy and domestic financial markets. The United States formally withdrew from the monetary policy of quantitative easing. China may face a certain degree of hot money outflow pressure in the second half of the year. Domestic monetary policy should make a good policy reserve for this early. In the second quarter of 2014, China's GDP increased by 7.5% over the same period last year, a modest improvement over the first quarter. With the implementation of a series of steady growth measures, overseas economic recovery has driven China's exports. We are confident that we will achieve a growth target of about 7.5 percent for the whole year. In the fourth quarter, the GDP growth rate was 7.5% and 7.6%, respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate was 7.5%. The core benchmark of this forecast is that the real estate growth rate gradually drops to 10% in the second half of the year, the consumption growth rate stabilizes at 12%, the nominal export growth rate is 7.5%, and the infrastructure investment. The capital growth rate is 28%. The fiscal policy should mainly accomplish the growth in the second half of the year from the following three aspects. The overall task of adjusting the structure is: (1) continue to expand the scope of local government bonds' spontaneous repayment of pilot projects, to ensure the source of financial funds for infrastructure investment. (2) accelerate the establishment of a new year budget balance mechanism, without increasing the current deficit. A portion of the 2015 budget will be used this year to implement a consumption tax reform that will reduce the high tax rates on some essential consumer goods, appropriately encourage the consumption of essential goods, and achieve economies that have successfully crossed the "middle-income trap". Having a common feature of being able to provide an open and transparent supervisory mechanism with continuous incentives, thus facilitating the acceleration of vertical social mobility and avoiding the emergence of social class solidification... To resolve the imbalances in economic development and to promote the vertical flow of society may lie not in the gain or loss of temporary economic growth, but in how to adapt to the new normal of economic growth and how to measure the moderate growth rate of the new normal. And carry out a series of system reforms under this steady growth rate. We mainly measure the potential growth rate from four aspects: 1) the overall goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way is 3) the current economic and social development environment demands 4) the development of our country is in the process of development. The constraints they face, Overall, we believe that the new normal rate of GDP growth will gradually decline from the current 7.5 percent to 6.0 percent in 2020.
【作者單位】： 中國社會科學院財稅研究中心;中國社會科學院經濟研究所;
【基金】：《我國宏觀經濟與財政政策分析》課題 國家社會科學基金重點項目《健全公共財政體系研究》(批準號:10AZD020)的階段性研究成果,課題組組長:閆坤
【分類號】：F124;F812.0
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本文編號：1669410