本文選題：投資　切入點(diǎn)：消費(fèi)　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來“中國奇跡”使中國成為世界矚目的焦點(diǎn),大家開始密切關(guān)注中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題,其中最流行的說法是投資、消費(fèi)與出口的“三駕馬車”理論,而投資與消費(fèi)作為衡量中國內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要指標(biāo),更是受到廣泛的關(guān)注。目前大家普遍認(rèn)為中國的投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)嚴(yán)重失衡,經(jīng)濟(jì)存在“投資過熱、內(nèi)需不足”的問題。本文從統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論與計量實(shí)證三個角度分析了這一說法,發(fā)現(xiàn)人們對中國的投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)問題存在一些誤判,本文重點(diǎn)對這些誤判進(jìn)行了修正,并探討了解決結(jié)構(gòu)失衡問題的主要途徑。 第一個誤判是認(rèn)為中國消費(fèi)率過低、投資率過高。本文對歷年《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》公布的消費(fèi)率與投資率以及相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析,通過對1995-2011年官方統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的修正,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)目前的統(tǒng)計對最終消費(fèi)支出嚴(yán)重低估了,而資本形成總額有所高估,從而導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)率被低估、投資率被高估,形成了人們對中國投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡問題的錯誤認(rèn)識。本文通過修正發(fā)現(xiàn),中國的消費(fèi)率和投資率實(shí)際上都在合理的測算范圍內(nèi)波動,兩者的差距縮小的進(jìn)程也比較緩慢。修正后消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率始終高于投資,可見中國的國內(nèi)消費(fèi)并沒有大家想象的那么疲軟,而投資過熱也是一個流行的錯誤。 第二個誤判是消費(fèi)比投資對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用更重要。本文引用拉姆齊模型研究了消費(fèi)和投資在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論中的作用。通過對居民消費(fèi)和企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的最優(yōu)行為選擇進(jìn)行分析,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)對于短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長而言,即期消費(fèi)的增加會降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、資本和消費(fèi)的穩(wěn)態(tài)水平,加快經(jīng)濟(jì)向穩(wěn)態(tài)水平的收斂速度,因此消費(fèi)的推動作用比投資更大。相對而言,資本積累在短期并不能馬上得到回報,對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的推動作用有限。但是在長期發(fā)展中,由儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)化而成的投資對其他生產(chǎn)要素具有很強(qiáng)的外部正效應(yīng)。人們強(qiáng)調(diào)刺激內(nèi)需的說法局限于短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長角度,要保證經(jīng)濟(jì)長久持續(xù)的增長,就不能忽視投資的重要性。 第三個誤判是認(rèn)為投資與消費(fèi)是拉動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要“馬車”。本文利用時間序列相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),采用普通最小二乘法、ADF單位根檢驗(yàn)、VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析、方差分解分析和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等方法對投資、消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)投資與消費(fèi)并不會必然拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長,它們更多的是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的結(jié)果而非原因。計量結(jié)果同時告訴我們投資與消費(fèi)之間存在強(qiáng)烈的擠出效應(yīng),這阻礙了兩者對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的傳導(dǎo)作用。因此優(yōu)化投資與消費(fèi)的結(jié)構(gòu)、建立兩者良性的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,是解決中國投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡問題的根本途徑。 最后一個誤判是政府應(yīng)該重點(diǎn)降低投資率、提高消費(fèi)率。本文統(tǒng)計修正和計量實(shí)證的結(jié)果告訴我們,要解決中國投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的問題,最重要的不是改變兩者占GDP的絕對比率,而是優(yōu)化投資與消費(fèi)各自的結(jié)構(gòu),推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,從而建立兩者之間的良性傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,使兩者能對促進(jìn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)、健康、快速的增長發(fā)揮更大的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the "Chinese miracle" that China become the focus of world, people began to pay close attention to the problem of economic growth China, one of the most popular argument is the investment, consumption and export of "three carriages" theory, and the investment and consumption as the main measure of Chinese internal economic development, more attention. At present, it is generally believed that serious imbalance between investment and consumption structure China, "economic overheating investment, domestic demand shortage problem. Based on the statistical data, the three aspects of economic growth theory and empirical analysis of the said method, it is found that there exist some mistakes on the investment and consumption structure Chinese problem people, the correction of these miscarriage of justice, and discusses the main way to solve the structural imbalance problem.
The first is that China misjudged the low consumption rate, high investment rate. This paper analyzes the Chinese Statistical Yearbook published < > consumption rate and investment rate and related data, through modification of the official statistics of 1995-2011 years, it is found that the statistics of final consumption expenditure seriously underestimated, and the total capital formation somewhat overvalued, resulting in the consumption rate is undervalued, the investment rate is overvalued, the formation of the people of China unbalanced consumption structure investment mistake. By modifying, Chinese consumption rate and investment rate actually estimates fluctuations in the reasonable range, the process of narrowing the gap is relatively slow. The revised consumer the contribution rate of economic growth is always higher than that of the visible Chinese investment, domestic consumption and do not you think so weak, while the investment overheating is also a popular error.
The second is more important than the investment consumption misjudgment effect on economic growth. This paper quoted Ramsay model to study the consumption and investment in economic growth in the theory. Through the optimal behavior of the residents' consumption and production enterprises selected for analysis, this paper found that the short-term economic growth, increase immediate consumption will reduce economic growth, the steady-state level of capital and consumption, accelerate the convergence to the steady-state level of the economy, so the consumer role is greater than the investment. In contrast, the accumulation of capital in the short term does not immediately return to the role in promoting economic growth is limited. But in the long-term development, the savings into investment with the outside is very strong positive effect to other production factors. People focus on stimulating domestic demand that is limited to short-term economic growth point, to ensure lasting economic growth, is not It is important to ignore the importance of investment.
The third is that the misjudgment of investment and consumption is important to pull the wagon "China economy. This paper uses the time series data, the ordinary least squares ADF unit root test, VAR model, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis and Grainger causality test and other methods of investment, the relationship between consumption and economic growth in the the empirical study found that investment and consumption will not necessarily stimulate economic growth, they are the result of economic growth. The measurement results also tell us investment and consumption between the crowding out effect of strong, which hinders their conduction effect to economic growth. So the optimal investment and consumption structure, the establishment of the conduction mechanism of benign, is the fundamental way to solve the problem of investment China unbalanced consumption structure.
The last one is that the government should focus on reducing misclassification rate of investment, increase the consumption rate. The statistical correction and the empirical results tell us that in order to solve the problem of China investment and consumption structure, the most important thing is not to change the absolute ratio between GDP, but the optimal investment and consumption and their structure, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in order to establish the benign conduction mechanism between the two, so that the two can promote the health of China economy, and play a greater role in rapid growth.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F126.1

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 湯向俊;中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長過程中投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變研究[D];西北大學(xué);2011年

2 馬U，

本文編號：1661862