本文選題：工業(yè)化　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型　出處：《武漢大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：從世界范圍來(lái)看,經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)如新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)所暗含的絕對(duì)趨同現(xiàn)象,而是呈現(xiàn)出俱樂(lè)部趨同趨勢(shì),一方面中等收入國(guó)家和低收入國(guó)家之間增長(zhǎng)趨異,另一方面中等收入國(guó)家和高收入國(guó)家之間增長(zhǎng)趨同,中等收入國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率最高。從中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展歷程來(lái)看,在經(jīng)歷了長(zhǎng)達(dá)三十年的高速增長(zhǎng)后,其GDP增長(zhǎng)率出現(xiàn)了下降,并且本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減速并非是外部沖擊造成的周期型減速。中國(guó)已經(jīng)難以再回到兩位數(shù)的高速增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期,而是進(jìn)入了中高速增長(zhǎng)的新常態(tài)。針對(duì)這些現(xiàn)象,本文提出了以下問(wèn)題：為什么中等收入國(guó)家具有較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率?為什么中國(guó)的高速增長(zhǎng)難以持續(xù)?新常態(tài)下中國(guó)工業(yè)發(fā)展何去何從?本文的整體安排如下：第一章是論文的緒論部分,介紹了選題的背景和意義,研究的思路、方法,論文的創(chuàng)新與不足,并對(duì)后續(xù)研究進(jìn)行了展望。第二章文獻(xiàn)綜述部分,從卡爾多定律、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三條主線對(duì)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理,并給出評(píng)價(jià)。第三章分析了長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程的階段與特征事實(shí),結(jié)合工業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引擎作用和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,構(gòu)建了工業(yè)化與駝峰型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)之間的聯(lián)系。第四章分析了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),從卡爾多定律的適用性和工業(yè)部門較高TFP增長(zhǎng)率分析了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型前期,工業(yè)化對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)。第五章分析了中國(guó)工業(yè)部門地位的轉(zhuǎn)換和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的服務(wù)業(yè)化,為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率下降提供了解釋。第六章集中討論新常態(tài)下中國(guó)工業(yè)部門的地位并且通過(guò)國(guó)際比較分析了未來(lái)中國(guó)工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)問(wèn)題。最后,第七章對(duì)論文的主要結(jié)論進(jìn)行了概括,并提出可行的政策建議。本文在理論分析和實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,得出了以下結(jié)論：第一,工業(yè)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的引擎,生產(chǎn)效率增長(zhǎng)高于農(nóng)業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)。工業(yè)的引擎作用源于勞動(dòng)分工、干中學(xué)、集聚與知識(shí)外溢、高RD投入帶來(lái)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步和規(guī)模效應(yīng)以及吸收農(nóng)業(yè)剩余勞動(dòng)力的資源再配置效應(yīng)。第二,隨收入水平提高,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出先增加后減少的駝峰型趨勢(shì),這是工業(yè)化進(jìn)程推進(jìn)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的結(jié)果。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型前期,國(guó)家從農(nóng)業(yè)主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)向工業(yè)主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)加速。但是一國(guó)的工業(yè)部門不可能無(wú)限擴(kuò)大,當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展到一定階段后,在收入增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)的需求結(jié)構(gòu)變化、部門技術(shù)進(jìn)步差異和資本深化帶來(lái)的相對(duì)價(jià)格變化的作用下,工業(yè)部門份額出現(xiàn)下降,進(jìn)入產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型后期。隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷服務(wù)業(yè)化,國(guó)家從工業(yè)主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)業(yè)主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減速。因此,工業(yè)部門增加值、勞動(dòng)力份額較高的中等收入國(guó)家,其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也最高,不僅高于農(nóng)業(yè)部門主導(dǎo)的低收入國(guó)家,也高于服務(wù)部門主導(dǎo)的高收入國(guó)家。第三,中國(guó)目前正處于從工業(yè)主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì)向服務(wù)型主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)換的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型拐點(diǎn),因此其增長(zhǎng)速度也從先前的高速增長(zhǎng)階段進(jìn)入中高速增長(zhǎng)階段。中國(guó)工業(yè)部門的生產(chǎn)效率增長(zhǎng)高于農(nóng)業(yè)部門和服務(wù)業(yè)部門,改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),工業(yè)部門的快速發(fā)展使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)了高速增長(zhǎng),但是人均收入增長(zhǎng)、資本深化等因素推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷服務(wù)化,最終工業(yè)部門份額下降,經(jīng)濟(jì)也減速增長(zhǎng)。第四,新常態(tài)下,工業(yè)依然是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)鍵部門,工業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)亟待升級(jí)。雖然,工業(yè)部門的主導(dǎo)地位逐漸被服務(wù)業(yè)部門所替代,但是從前后向產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)的角度來(lái)看,工業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)依然重要。此外,國(guó)際比較發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)以往過(guò)度依賴投資的發(fā)展方式和高端人才缺乏可能成為中國(guó)工業(yè)升級(jí)的制約因素。針對(duì)以上結(jié)論,本文的主要政策建議為：正視經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減速問(wèn)題,調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)期；改變政府主導(dǎo)的資源配置模式,讓位市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)制；消化過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能、淘汰落后產(chǎn)能,適應(yīng)需求變化；重視技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和高端人才培養(yǎng)、促進(jìn)工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)；協(xié)調(diào)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。此外,與現(xiàn)有研究相比,本文的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)如下：第一,研究結(jié)合工業(yè)的引擎作用以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,解釋了長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程中,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率表現(xiàn)出的先增加后下降的駝峰型趨勢(shì)�，F(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論多集中于解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的某個(gè)階段,如著重分析經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展初期低水平陷阱的馬爾薩斯理論,較好解釋現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程的新古典理論,以及研究過(guò)渡時(shí)期的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)兩部門模型。即便是以長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為研究對(duì)象的統(tǒng)一增長(zhǎng)理論也僅包括經(jīng)濟(jì)從停滯到增長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程,但是并未涉及經(jīng)濟(jì)起飛之后的減速階段。本文的研究涉及經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯、起飛增長(zhǎng)、增長(zhǎng)減速階段,豐富了對(duì)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程的認(rèn)識(shí)。第二,研究為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的減速換擋提供了一種新的解釋。中國(guó)持續(xù)三十年的高速增長(zhǎng),被稱為中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)奇跡,但是隨著新常態(tài)的到來(lái),我國(guó)進(jìn)入了經(jīng)濟(jì)增速調(diào)整期。關(guān)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)連續(xù)30年的高速增長(zhǎng)奇跡以及當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)減速現(xiàn)象,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者有多種解釋。有從人口紅利,勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模和儲(chǔ)蓄率變化的角度解釋,有從結(jié)構(gòu)失衡,國(guó)內(nèi)需求不足以及投資過(guò)度造成的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的角度考慮,也有從全要素生產(chǎn)率下降,資源再配置過(guò)程減速等角度展開(kāi)。本研究結(jié)合卡爾多定律,從工業(yè)化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中工業(yè)部門地位轉(zhuǎn)換的角度解釋這一現(xiàn)象,具有一定的理論價(jià)值。第三,研究重新測(cè)算了中國(guó)工業(yè)部門的TFP增長(zhǎng)率。本文采用DEA-M指數(shù)法對(duì)中國(guó)工業(yè)部門分行業(yè)的TFP增長(zhǎng)率進(jìn)行了測(cè)算,該方法避免了函數(shù)形式錯(cuò)誤估計(jì)對(duì)測(cè)算結(jié)果造成的影響,而本文與同類DEA-M指數(shù)法測(cè)算中國(guó)工業(yè)TFP增長(zhǎng)率的區(qū)別體現(xiàn)在以下兩點(diǎn)：1)使用固定資本存量而非固定資本凈值作為資本投入；2)在對(duì)TFP增長(zhǎng)率的分解上采用了前后假設(shè)統(tǒng)一的Ray(1997)方法而非普遍使用的Fare(1994)方法。第四,研究對(duì)現(xiàn)階段中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)和增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行了國(guó)際比較。不少分析中國(guó)當(dāng)前結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的文獻(xiàn)直接將我國(guó)目前的各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)與當(dāng)今發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家進(jìn)行比較,得出我國(guó)與發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體差距依然巨大的結(jié)論。本文將比較對(duì)象限定在發(fā)展階段相近的時(shí)期,具體來(lái)說(shuō),將中國(guó)指標(biāo)與發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體處于減速換擋時(shí)期的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行橫向比較,得出的結(jié)論更具借鑒意義
[Abstract]:From the view of the world, the economy did not appear the phenomenon of absolute convergence of new classical economic implications, but showing a club convergence trend, between a middle income and low income countries divergent growth, on the other hand to middle-income countries and high income countries convergence, middle-income countries from the highest rate of economic growth. The development process of China economy, after thirty years of rapid growth, the growth rate of GDP decreased, and the economic slowdown is cyclical deceleration caused by external impact. Chinese has been difficult to go back to the two digit growth period, but in the rapid growth of the new normal for. These phenomena, this paper puts forward the following questions: why the rate of economic growth in middle-income countries with high growth China? Why is difficult to continue the new? The development of China industry under normal conditions decide on what path to follow? The overall arrangement of the paper is as follows: the first chapter is the introduction part, introduces the background and significance, research ideas, methods, innovations and deficiencies, and the future research are prospected. The second chapter is literature review, from Kaldor's law, industrial restructuring and economic Chinese growth of three lines to sort out the existing literature, and gives the evaluation. The third chapter analyzes the stages and characteristics in the long-term economic growth process, combined with the industrial engine of economic growth and industrial structure transition, constructed between industrialization and economic growth trend of the hump type. The fourth chapter analyzes the China trend of economic growth, from Kaldor the applicability of the law and industrial sectors with higher TFP growth rate to analyze the transformation of industrial structure, industrialization of China contribution to high economic growth. The fifth chapter analysis The conversion of the China industrial sector status and industrial structure of the service industry, providing an explanation for China decline in economic growth. The sixth chapter focuses on the new normal Chinese industry status and through international comparative analysis of the future China upgrading of industrial structure. Finally, the seventh chapter is the main conclusions of the paper are summarized, and put forward feasible policy suggestions. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research, draw the following conclusions: first, the industry is the engine of economic growth, the production efficiency is higher than the growth of agriculture and service industry. The industrial engine due to the division of labor, doing, cluster and knowledge spillover, high input technology progress and RD the scale effect and the absorption of surplus agricultural labor resources reallocation effect. Second, with the increase of income, the camel peak rate of economic growth will be showing the first increase and then decrease This is the trend of industrialization, the industrial structure transformation of the early results. The transformation of industrial structure, from the national leading agricultural economy to industrial economy, accelerating economic growth. But a country's industrial sector could not expand indefinitely, when the economy develops to a certain stage, changes in the structure of demand income growth brought about by the Department the difference of the technology progress and capital deepening caused by relative price changes under the action of the industrial sector share fell into the industrial structure transition period. As the industrial structure of the service industry, from the industrial countries leading economy to a service led economy, the slowdown in economic growth. Therefore, industrial added value, a higher share of the labor force middle income countries, the economic growth rate is the highest, not only higher than the agricultural sector led to low income countries, also higher than the service sector leading high-income countries. Three, China is currently in the inflection point of the transformation of industrial structure from industry leading economic transformation to the service oriented, so the growth rate is also rapid growth from the previous stage into the stage of rapid growth. Chinese industrial sector production efficiency is higher than the growth of the agricultural sector and the service sector, since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of the industrial sector the China economy achieved rapid growth, but the per capita income growth, capital deepening and other factors to promote the industrial structure to service, the final industrial sector share decline, economic slowdown growth. Fourth, under the new norm, industry is still the key sector of the national economy, the internal structure of industrial upgrading urgently. Although the dominant position of the industrial sector the service sector is gradually replaced, but from the backward industry association perspective, industry is still important to economic growth. In addition, the international comparison. Now, the development of high-end talent and China past over reliance on investment deficiency may be a limiting factor Chinese industrial upgrading. According to the above conclusions, the main policy suggestions are as follows: face the economic slowdown, the adjustment of economic growth is expected to change the allocation of resources; government leading mode, market economy mechanism way; the digestion of excess capacity, eliminate backward capacity to adapt to changes in demand; attach importance to technological innovation and high-end talent training, promote the upgrading of industrial structure; coordinated development of three industries, optimize the industrial structure, to maintain sustained economic growth. In addition, compared with the existing research, the main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, based on engine industry and industrial restructuring, explain the long-term in the process of economic growth, increase first and then decrease humped trend economic growth rate showed economic growth. The existing theory of multi focus In a stage of economic growth, such as the analysis of Malthus's theory of low level trap in the early stage of economic development, new classical theory explained the process of modern economic growth, and the development of economics is the study of the transition period two sector model. Even in the long-term economic growth as the research object of the unified growth theory also includes only the economy from stagnation to the growth process, but did not involve the deceleration phase after the economic takeoff. This study relates to economic stagnation, off growth, growth deceleration stage, rich in long-term economic growth in the process of understanding. Second. The research provides a new explanation for the slow shift Chinese economy. The rapid growth of Chinese lasting for thirty years. China, known as the miracle of growth, but with the arrival of the new normal, China has entered a period of adjustment on economic growth. China rapid economic growth for 30 consecutive years of odd The trace and the current economic slowdown, the domestic and foreign scholars have different interpretations. From the perspective of demographic dividend, scale and labor savings rate change explanation, from structural imbalance, lack of domestic demand and overcapacity caused by excessive investment point of view, has declined from the total factor productivity, resource reallocation process of deceleration the perspective of this study. Combined with Kaldor's law, from the industrialization and the transformation of industrial structure in the process of converting industrial sector position to explain the phenomenon, has a certain theoretical value. Third research in China, re measure the industrial TFP growth. This paper uses the DEA-M index method to China industry industry growth rate of TFP was calculated, this method avoids the estimation error of function form impact on the measurement results, and the similar DEA-M index method to measure the growth rate of TFP Chinese Industrial Zone Don't lie in the following two points: 1) the use of the stock of fixed capital and net fixed capital as capital investment; 2) in the decomposition of the TFP growth rate was used before and after the assumption of uniform Ray (1997) method rather than the commonly used Fare (1994) method. Fourth, research was carried out on the stage of international comparison China's economic growth and structure analysis. Many China current structure transformation and economic growth in China will direct literature indicators currently compared with the developed countries, come to our country and developed economies, the gap is still huge. The conclusion of this paper will compare the quadrant in similar stages of development period, specifically, the China index with the developed economies in the period of the gear shift indicators of horizontal comparison, the conclusion is more significance

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F424;F124

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7 ;世行預(yù)測(cè)入世前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)7.3%[J];冶金信息導(dǎo)刊;2001年02期

8 ;今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能“前高后低”[J];中國(guó)建材;2001年09期

9 ;全球黃金消費(fèi)去年超過(guò)3000t[J];黃金科學(xué)技術(shù);2002年03期

10 李晉富;經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、創(chuàng)新能力與文化建設(shè)[J];太原科技;2002年02期

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9 張穎;汪昌來(lái);;論中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的潛力[A];’2001天津信息技術(shù)、電子、儀器儀表學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議論文集[C];2001年

10 諸大建;孟維華;徐萍;;1980—2005年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)福利的貢獻(xiàn)[A];2008年度上海市社會(huì)科學(xué)界第六屆學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)文集（經(jīng)濟(jì)·管理學(xué)科卷）[C];2008年

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