【摘要】：在建筑工程項(xiàng)目眾多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中,工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)居于核心地位,因?yàn)楣て诘难诱`將使項(xiàng)目各利益相關(guān)方的效用均下降,使項(xiàng)目的收益低下。特別是業(yè)主,假如項(xiàng)目不能按照預(yù)先計(jì)劃順利建成投產(chǎn),那么項(xiàng)目存在的必要性就會(huì)大打折扣,工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來的損失不僅包括銀行貸款利息的增加、投資成本增加、現(xiàn)金流無法按計(jì)劃實(shí)現(xiàn),還可能導(dǎo)致商機(jī)的喪失。 通常意義下的工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度計(jì)劃是以關(guān)鍵線路法CPM(Critical Path Method)為基礎(chǔ)的,它的基本假定是網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)度計(jì)劃中每項(xiàng)活動(dòng)的持續(xù)時(shí)間是確定的。而實(shí)際工程中,由于政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、氣象、水文、施工環(huán)境等不確定性因素的影響,導(dǎo)致了工程項(xiàng)目施工中工序活動(dòng)持續(xù)時(shí)間的不確定性,因而就出現(xiàn)了如何計(jì)算這種網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)度的時(shí)間參數(shù)以及工期能否按計(jì)劃實(shí)現(xiàn)的問題。 本文在研究經(jīng)典PERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃和蒙特卡羅模擬的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用灰色系統(tǒng)理論和馬爾科夫決策兩大不確定性研究方法,分別建立了灰色網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃模型和考慮動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的馬爾科夫模型。 第一,本文對(duì)比了經(jīng)典PERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃和蒙特卡羅模擬結(jié)果的差異,通過統(tǒng)計(jì)各工序出現(xiàn)在關(guān)鍵路徑上的次數(shù)產(chǎn)生對(duì)下面問題的思考：關(guān)鍵工序的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是什么?不確定型網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃模型中關(guān)鍵路徑該如何定義?接著以數(shù)學(xué)推理的形式解釋了出現(xiàn)上述差異的原因：忽略了非關(guān)鍵路徑的影響。第二,本文建立了區(qū)間網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃模型,通過引入灰數(shù)排序規(guī)則構(gòu)建了完整的區(qū)間網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃時(shí)間參數(shù)計(jì)算規(guī)則。為了減弱灰度放大效應(yīng)的干擾,對(duì)超出合理區(qū)間的部分進(jìn)行逐一修正。第三,本文在區(qū)間網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃模型的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步探索了帶三角白化權(quán)函數(shù)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃模型,其主要目的是引入取值分布情況以更準(zhǔn)確地反映灰信息。第四,對(duì)地震和罷工兩大不可抗力影響下的工期估算進(jìn)行了必要的探索,得到了符合動(dòng)態(tài)決策的工期估算方法。 本文尚不能構(gòu)建不確定型網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃的整個(gè)理論體系和框架,其部分章節(jié)的研究結(jié)果依然存在繼續(xù)改進(jìn)的可能性。論文的結(jié)尾總結(jié)了幾大值得繼續(xù)探索的研究方向,希望能夠給未來研究提供一定的思想借鑒。
[Abstract]:Among the many risks in the construction project, the construction project risk occupies the core position, because the delay of the construction period will reduce the utility of all stakeholders of the project, and make the project benefit low. In particular, owners, if the project cannot be successfully completed and put into operation according to the pre-planned plan, then the necessity of the project will be greatly reduced, and the loss brought about by the time limit risk will not only include the increase in interest on bank loans, but also the increase in investment cost. Cash flow cannot be realized as planned, and it may lead to the loss of business opportunities. In general, the project schedule is based on the critical path method (CPM (Critical Path Method), and its basic assumption is that the duration of each activity in the network schedule is determined. In the actual project, due to the influence of the uncertain factors such as politics, economy, meteorology, hydrology, construction environment and so on, it leads to the uncertainty of the duration of the process activities in the construction of the engineering project. Therefore, how to calculate the time parameters of the network progress and whether the time limit can be realized according to the plan arises. On the basis of studying the classical PERT network plan and Monte Carlo simulation, the grey system theory and Markov decision-making are used to study the uncertainty. Grey network planning model and Markov model considering dynamic risk are established respectively. First, this paper compares the difference between the classical PERT network plan and the Monte Carlo simulation results. By counting the number of times that each process appears on the critical path, this paper gives some thoughts on the following questions: what is the measure standard of the key process? How do critical paths in an uncertain network planning model be defined? Then the reason of the difference is explained in the form of mathematical reasoning: the influence of non-critical path is ignored. Secondly, this paper sets up the interval network planning model, and constructs the complete interval network planning time parameter calculation rule by introducing the grey number ranking rule. In order to reduce the interference of the magnification effect of gray scale, the parts out of the reasonable range are modified one by one. Thirdly, on the basis of the interval network planning model, this paper further explores the network planning model with triangular whitening weight function, the main purpose of which is to introduce the value distribution to reflect the grey information more accurately. Fourthly, it is necessary to explore the time limit estimation under the influence of earthquake and strike force majeure, and obtain the time limit estimation method in accordance with dynamic decision-making. This paper has not been able to construct the whole theoretical system and framework of uncertain network planning, and the results of some chapters still have the possibility of further improvement. At the end of the paper, several research directions worth further exploration are summarized, hoping to provide some ideas for future research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU72

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