【摘要】：洪水災(zāi)害自古以來一直是困擾我國生存和發(fā)展的一大難題。新中國成立六十多年以來,盡管我國在水利建設(shè)方面取得了很大成就,防洪減災(zāi)效果顯著,但是由于氣候條件的異常變化、大規(guī)模人類活動(dòng)和環(huán)境的影響,我國的防洪形勢(shì)仍然十分嚴(yán)峻。城市防洪規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)方案是城市防洪工程建設(shè)的依據(jù),其實(shí)施直接關(guān)系到城市的安全和發(fā)展。對(duì)于快速發(fā)展的城鎮(zhèn),如何確定合理的防洪規(guī)劃方案將直接影響著社會(huì)、政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、民生和環(huán)境等諸多方面。因此建立有效的城市防洪規(guī)劃方案的綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)于城市防洪規(guī)劃的制定和具體實(shí)施有著重要意義。本文在原有評(píng)價(jià)研究理論的基礎(chǔ)上,首先對(duì)防洪工程措施與非工程措施兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了深入的研究,分析了城市防洪的工程措施、非工程措施以及城市防洪的影響指標(biāo),并進(jìn)一步考慮兩者之間的相互聯(lián)系。以此為基礎(chǔ)建立了城市防洪系統(tǒng)指標(biāo)體系,并將這個(gè)指標(biāo)體系應(yīng)用于城市防洪綜合評(píng)價(jià)研究中。其次研究了BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、灰色系統(tǒng)理論和遺傳算法的原理和特點(diǎn),并根據(jù)它們的使用條件和各自優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),建立了應(yīng)用于城市防洪系統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)的遺傳算法優(yōu)化灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。并根據(jù)城市防洪系統(tǒng)影響的多指標(biāo)性,設(shè)計(jì)了基于MATLAB軟件平臺(tái)可獨(dú)立運(yùn)行的城市防洪系統(tǒng)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型。通過對(duì)城市防洪影響指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)的灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)處理,以及運(yùn)用遺傳算法對(duì)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)賦予最佳初始權(quán)值和閥值,并運(yùn)用樣本數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)學(xué)習(xí)訓(xùn)練,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)北方某城市的城市防洪規(guī)劃綜合評(píng)價(jià),實(shí)現(xiàn)了在城市防洪規(guī)劃綜合評(píng)價(jià)上真正的軟硬措施相結(jié)合的整體思路,為城市防洪規(guī)劃評(píng)價(jià)提供了一種新的途徑。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster has been a difficult problem for survival and development of our country since ancient times. Since the founding of the people's Republic of China more than 60 years ago, although our country has made great achievements in water conservancy construction and the effect of flood control and disaster reduction has been remarkable, due to abnormal changes in climatic conditions, large-scale human activities and environmental impacts, The flood control situation in our country is still very serious. Urban flood control planning and design scheme is the basis of urban flood control engineering construction, and its implementation is directly related to the safety and development of the city. For the rapidly developing cities and towns, how to determine the reasonable flood control plan will directly affect the society, politics, economy, people's livelihood and environment and so on. Therefore, the establishment of an effective comprehensive evaluation model for urban flood control planning is of great significance for the formulation and implementation of urban flood control planning. On the basis of the original evaluation and research theory, this paper makes a deep research on the flood control measures and non-engineering measures, and analyzes the engineering measures, non-engineering measures and the impact indexes of urban flood control. And further consider the relationship between the two. Based on this, the index system of urban flood control system is established and applied to the comprehensive evaluation of urban flood control. Secondly, the principle and characteristics of BP neural network, grey system theory and genetic algorithm are studied. According to their application conditions and their respective advantages and disadvantages, the genetic algorithm for urban flood control system evaluation is established to optimize the grey neural network. According to the multiple indexes of urban flood control system, a comprehensive evaluation model of urban flood control system based on MATLAB software platform is designed. By preprocessing the urban flood control index data by grey system, using genetic algorithm to assign the best initial weight and threshold value to the neural network, and using the sample data to study and train the neural network, Finally, the comprehensive evaluation of urban flood control planning of a city in the north is realized, and the whole idea of combining the real soft and hard measures in the comprehensive evaluation of urban flood control planning is realized, which provides a new way for the evaluation of urban flood control planning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TU998.4

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